Week 13: Tampa Bay at New Orleans

For the NFC South, this is as close to a showdown as you get.

So much will depend on whether QB Jeff Garcia plays for Tampa Bay. Garcia has elevated the Bucs this year from cellar dweller to division leader, but he has a deep back bruise and will be hurting all week. When Bruce Gradkowski came in for Garcia after he was hurt against Washington last Sunday, the Bucs were awful offensively.

Tampa Bay was outgained by an astonishing 412-192 against Washington last week and still won the game, 19-13, because its revived defense came up with six takeaways. The Bucs have a two-game lead on New Orleans already in the NFC East. A win here would put Tampa Bay up by three games with only four to go – a nearly insurmountable advantage.

If the Saints win, on the other hand, they slice the gap to one with four to go. They also put themselves in better position for a wild card if they don’t catch up to Tampa.

The Bucs didn’t make a single first down in the second half, when they were outgained 316-15. And yet still they won. If they can get this one, they almost certainly will host a first-round playoff game like all division winners do.

The Saints, meanwhile, are as healthy as they’ve been all season. And they pulverized Carolina, 31-6, Sunday. Coach Sean Payton was particularly pleased that New Orleans converted 11-of-18 third downs in that game, and also that the team didn’t allow a touchdown for first time all season.

Payton has made a public plea for more noise in the Superdome this week. “What I’m hopeful for is a playoff environment and one that can give us an edge,” he said. He also noted that since the game starts at 3:15 local time in New Orleans, the late sleepers among the crowd can still get there in plenty of time to yell.

QB Drew Brees is back on a roll after throwing three touchdown passes and running for another against Carolina. Brees continues to be plagued by some dropped balls by the New Orleans receivers and RB Reggie Bush continues to look like he’s not powerful enough to be an every-down back in the NFL. Yet the Saints aren’t that far removed from the team that advanced to the NFC championship game last season. In this one, a healthy Brees vs. either a sore Garcia or one of his backups will be the difference.

New Orleans by 3