Week 13: San Diego at Kansas City

As a general rule, we try to resist the tendency to ascribe the success or failures of football teams to one individual. We do this both because doing that is almost always oversimplifying and also because it’s the sort of dumbery we associate with the NFL’s quasi-mongoloid talking heads, braying their demands, for instance, that a running back “step up” behind a patchwork offensive line and the like. Obviously hardcore football analysis is not our sole goal with these previews – we want to make you smile, we want to make you feel, we want to introduce you to non-words like “dumbery”  – but we try to resist monocausal analysis whenever possible out of some misplaced/half-hearted attempt at intellectual integrity. Sometimes, though, individuals actually do win or lose football games. Even taking into account the Vikings’ excellent offensive line, Adrian Peterson’s game takeovers this season are one example. The Chargers’ season-long stumble under head coach Norv Turner is, we think, another.

We’re hard on Norv, and while we’re sure it’s not these previews that have given him his signature sallow, hunted look – it’s so hot right now – Turner has been looking a bit rough for most of the season. Turner has cemented his title as the shabbiest offensive guru in history by presiding over a massive step back on the part of QB Philip Rivers, who has gone from a promising starter last year to the NFL’s leading turnover producer this season (he has 17 through 11 games). The Chargers offense, despite having the same personnel as last year’s NFL-best unit, ranks 23rd in the NFL in yards per game (306.4, just ahead of the Raiders) and is 17th in the NFL in rushing (105.4 YPG, just ahead of the Bills) despite featuring the outlandishly talented LaDainian Tomlinson.

There are the more complicated explanations for the team’s lameness on offense – Pro Bowl center Nick Hardwick missed the last five games with injury, for instance, and Turner’s late hiring meant the team was slow to pick up his system – but there is also one simple explanation. That’s this: Norv. He often makes strange – like Mike Martz-too-smart-by-half strange – play calls, and has put too much pressure on Rivers by not utilizing Tomlinson enough. It might be oversimplification – although LT is averaging 18.4 carries per game in the team’s losses and 20.7 in the wins – but there is such a thing as a simple answer. San Diego’s defense has been solid enough, and its formerly suspect secondary has improved some and gotten its share of takeaways in recent weeks. When the Chargers lose, it’s because the offense makes mistakes and turns the ball over.

And it was for that reason that San Diego lost at home to Kansas City in Week 4. Tomlinson averaged a measly 6.6 yards per carry – luckily, he only took 20 handoffs, which limited his damage to 132 yards – but The Norv abided, calling 42 pass plays for a befuddled and terrified Philip Rivers, who tossed two picks and lost a fumble. The Chiefs defense is still the team’s strongest suit – with an offense that ranks 29th in yards per game and 30th in points per game, that’s not saying much – and the active linebackers and solid secondary may bug the Chargers again. But at the risk of focusing too much on the visiting team, the Chiefs are comparatively vulnerable against the run – they’re 18th in the NFL against the rush, 9th overall against the pass – and the Chargers have the NFL’s best running back. It shouldn’t be that difficult to figure out a game plan to reflect those circumstances.

But Norv is as Norv does, and the Chiefs are tough at home and the Chargers have been awful on the road (1-4 so far, with an average margin of defeat of 14 points). There’s no reason why a team that starts Brodie Croyle at quarterback and Kolby Smith at running back – the latter because star Larry Johnson is out again a foot injury, the former because the alternative is Damon “Damon Huard” Huard – should beat the Chargers. San Diego is that much more talented, and certainly due for a breakout. And they’re playing the Chiefs, a team that we thought before the season had the talent to win maybe three games. And yet, with Norv wearing the headset, it’s a toss-up. This shouldn’t be close, but probably will be. But then, Norv Turner probably shouldn’t be a head coach in the NFL, either.

Chargers by 2