Week 13: Jacksonville at Indianapolis

One of Sunday’s most critical games will go a long way toward deciding the AFC South, which the Indianapolis Colts have lately been claiming as their birthright.

The Colts already blasted the Jaguars, 29-7, in Jacksonville earlier this season. But Jacksonville is playing better now and aiming for redemption. A win would put the two in close to a dead heat, although Indianapolis still would hold the first tiebreaker edge because of a better record so far against divisional opponents. If the Colts lose Sunday and win their last four in a row, in other words, they still win the South.

If the Colts win Sunday in the screaming loud RCA Dome, however, you can pretty much pencil them in for the No. 2 seed in the AFC and be done with it. Jacksonville would be two back with four to play and the Colts, even if caught, would still hold the tiebreaker edge. The Colts, in other words, would win their fifth straight AFC South title.

Indianapolis has looked vulnerable the last couple of weeks, ever since letting that 10-point fourth-quarter lead get away against New England and slipping from the undefeated ranks. But after falling behind 10-0 against Atlanta on Thanksgiving night, Indy rallied to crumple the Falcons, 31-13.

QB Peyton Manning has been playing with a hand tied behind his back for the past seven games due to the absence of security blanket Marvin Harrison. He’s hoping to return this week. LT Tony Ugoh hopes to be back as well to protect Manning’s blindside. On defense, the Jags got burned by Manning last time by sitting back in their base defense and this time will likely blitz more.

The game may be won or lost by whether the Colts’ defense can stop the four-legged Jacksonville monster of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. The Colts did that well in the first game this season, but Jacksonville has run the ball extremely well on Indy in the past (375 rushing yards in the second game last year). S Bob Sanders will be a key in that matchup.

QB David Garrard has been playing very well for the Jags, who have won three in a row. They routed Buffalo, 36-14, last week behind 104 rushing yards from Taylor (his first 100-yard game of the season) and five field goals from Josh Scobee.

Also in that game, Garrard was 23-of-37 for a career-high 296 yards. He has now thrown 201 straight passes without an interception. He has been so efficient recently and just isn’t making many mistakes. If the Colts pick him off once, they should consider themselves fortunate. Twice, and they’ll probably win.

Jacksonville’s defense is still playing well but will be hurt a bit because DT Marcus Stroud has a game to go on his suspension for violating the NFL steroids policy.

It’s going to be a big one – too bad in some ways that this one won’t be in prime time. Indy coach Tony Dungy probably spoke for both teams earlier this week when at his news conference he said: “It’s a game that’s probably going to determine the division championship, and we’re going to approach it that way.”

Indy by 6