Week 11: Washington at Dallas

Within an hour of publishing our Giants/Cowboys preview last week, two emails chased each other into our inbox. The first was from a Cowboys-fan friend who has described himself as “Romotional” in conversation. His called us a homer for picking the Giants in a narrow win and proclaiming “Cowboys by 9”; the other was from a different friend, a Giants fan, saying that we lacked suitable faith in our G-Men and concluding with the words “Giants by 10.” Well, neither of them was exactly right. Neither were we. (One guy was closer than anyone else, but he didn’t have to be so obnoxious about it) But the Cowboys’ commanding 11-point win in New Jersey last Sunday did make a point on which all three of us can probably agree: these Cowboys are pretty good.

Or at least they have managed to put away weaker teams, which is good enough to pass as great in the NFC at the moment. We’ll have to wait until their Week 13 match-up with Green Bay to find out how they’ll look against a team of similar proficiency, though. In Week 11, fans will instead get to see how they face up against an injury-wracked, poorly coached, utterly stultifying divisional quasi-rival. Sounds good, right?

Ah, these Redskins. We know that Joe Gibbs has won three Super Bowls in two decades and is already enshrined in Canton. But watching the Redskins over the last few weeks has been tough not just for the usual reasons – unlikable personnel; absurdly conservative play-calling; the chance of seeing dippy owner Daniel Snyder awkwardly high-fiving people in the owner’s box when good things happen – but because the team has made so many boneheaded plays. Part of this is due to injuries: the receiving corps hasn’t been healthy all season, and with the loss of star S Sean Taylor last week and CB Carlos Rogers the week before the team is short two of its best playmakers on defense. And some of it is due to a weirdly put-together roster and a young, not-so-great quarterback in Jason Campbell. But a lot of it is on Gibbs. Or it would be, if people were comfortable criticizing him.

Sure, we are willing to do this. But for people who are, you know, nicer, it’s considered kind of poor taste to take potshots at such a devout, accomplished grandfather-type. Even when the team he coaches commits 11 penalties, even when he makes several absurdly conservative play-calls and calls timeouts so incautiously that his team had none left during its attempt at a fourth quarter comeback. Even when the billion-dollar defense yields 33 points to the flatlined Eagles offense. But that was all in Week 10.

So in Week 11 expect…about the same, but maybe fewer penalties. Washington doesn’t have any trouble running the ball (132.1 YPG on average), and may be able to do it against a solid Cowboys defense that’s allowing just 86.8 YPG thus far. Opening up the passing game some might help put Dallas off-balance and get RB Clinton Portis – the offense’s one true star – some room to work. But that won’t happen. It took the ‘Skins 10 weeks to throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver, and their offensive play-calling has been unstintingly conservative under all circumstances. Gibbs handles his team less like a driver on his successful NASCAR squads and more like the senior citizen he is. His dial won’t budge above 24 points: it’s just not safe.

That’s good (well, kind of) against some teams, but it won’t be enough against the Cowboys. In a league dominated by dour coaches and their loveless charges, the Cowboys have a likable headmaster in goofy Texan dad-type Wade Phillips and, perhaps not coincidentally, have been fun to watch and seemingly fairly happy. Phillips is known as a defensive strategist, and the Cowboys defense has been active and effective across the board. More surprisingly, an explosive offense (their 396.2 YPG trails only the Patriots, as do their 32.8 points per game) has emerged under aw-shucks QB Tony Romo, whose lack of a big-time pedigree or arm hasn’t kept him from making big plays every week. Working behind one of the NFL’s biggest and best offensive lines has helped a good deal, but as long as Romo continues his solid play, the Cowboys shouldn’t have much trouble with teams like the Redskins. Or, to be more precise, the actual Redskins. This week. In this game.

Cowboys by 8