Week 11: Tampa Bay at Atlanta

The NFC South is ripe for the taking, and Tampa Bay has as good a chance of taking the division as anyone.

Tampa Bay is relatively healthy and confident, coming off a bye. It was preceded by a 17-10 win over Arizona in which the Bucs held the ball for 43 minutes and goaded Kurt Warner into his worst day of the season (10-of-30 passing, two interceptions and a 26.0 QB rating). The Bucs are only 2-3 following a bye week under coach Jon Gruden, but Atlanta is a pretty good place to try and even that score. No one needed the bye more than QB Jeff Garcia, who is suffering from a bit of arm fatigue. He is getting help from RB Earnest Graham, who always seems to fall forward and had 124 yards against Arizona. Graham likely will keep the No. 1 role this week even though Michael Pittman returns from injury.

The Falcons won’t be a pushover. They have won two games in a row, helped by the fact that RB Warrick Dunn finally looks healthy and strong. That’s a major streak for a team that was once 1-6.

Atlanta edged Carolina, 20-13, Sunday when Joey Harrington hit Alge Crumpler with a 30-yard TD pass with 20 seconds left. It’s conceivable that even though Harrington has led those two wins that Byron Leftwich could return as starting QB this week – coach Bobby Petrino liked the way Leftwich ran the team during his short stint.

Leftwich had minor ankle surgery but was the starter when he left; he had taken over when Harrington and the Falcons started 1-5. Petrino will likely play coy about this one all week; Harrington showed some toughness Sunday and Leftwich will need to prove to doctors that he’s ready.

Falcons DE John Abraham is having a superb year, but the Bucs have more overall talent on defense. That’s ultimately where this one will be decided. It’s possible a lot of folks in Atlanta won’t see it; the Falcons are trying to sell enough tickets to avoid their second straight home TV blackout.

Tampa Bay by 7