Week 9: Green Bay at Kansas City

We go back and forth on Brett Favre, the craggy crush of every sportscaster in the country and the Packers’ most important player for the 31st straight season in 2007. On the one hand, he has been pretty darn great thus far in ’07, completing passes he was unable to complete in years past and clicking with the young Green Bay receiving corps. On the other hand, no one in the NFL – not just no other sure-shot Hall of Famer, but no other quarterback, period – can give away a game more exasperatingly or unexpectedly than Ol’ Strongjaw’s alter ego, “Bad Brett.”

In the midst of an otherwise excellent performance, there’s always the risk of Bad Brett, getting carried away and throwing an underhand pick deep in his own territory (c.f., Chicago in Week 5) or lobbing one into double coverage because he just knows he can complete that pass (he did this more or less nonstop in 2004, ’05 and ’06). The good news for Packers fans – already pretty happy by dint of Wisconsin temperament, plentiful cheese curds and the fact that their team is 6-1 despite letting anyone off the street play running back – is that unless Bad Brett starts trying to throw the ball through people, his Packers have a decent look at an improbable 7-1 start.

Of course, the Chiefs are in part to thank for that. Their 4-3 record is primarily a tribute to just how bad some of the teams they’ve played were – Oakland! Cincinnati! Minnesota! Yes! – but while their defense is better than we’d expected, their offense is still pretty tepid. Larry Johnson seems to be rounding into form, and notched his third 100-yard game in four weeks in Week 8. That’s doubly important since the team’s receivers are among the weakest in the game – rookie WR Dwayne Bowe aside, there’s not a wideout on this team who’d play anywhere else in the NFL – and their quarterback is the extraordinarily ordinary Damon Huard. Being able to do just barely enough against some flawed defenses has gotten the Chiefs this far – further, it should be said, than we ever saw them going – but the Packers defense is better than that.

There are some problems in their secondary, although it’s nice to see Charles Woodson (weirdly) playing like year-2000 Charles Woodson again. Other than some penalty-prone corners and safeties, though, Green Bay has a lot going for it, with an effective defensive line and an ace linebacking corps highlighted by the excellent Nick Barnett. The Packers haven’t overwhelmed anyone, exactly, but they’ve kept teams out of the end zone and always given their team a chance to win.

The same could be said of the Chiefs defense, which ranks just ahead of the Packers in points allowed (K.C. allows 16.1 points per game; Green Bay allows 17.1) and is also built around active, playmaking linebackers and a couple of tough D-linemen. Again, though, this defense has done much of its best work against the NFL’s worst. The same could be said of the Packers, to a certain degree, but we give the edge to the Packers offense in this match-up.

That’s not to say that the Chiefs’ veteran secondary couldn’t come up with a pick or two in this one. Bad Brett gives those away with all the panache of NFL dudes handing out turkeys on Thanksgiving in those old, pre-irony United Way commercials. And while the Pack got their first 100-yard rushing game of the season against Denver’s terrible run defense in Week 8, it came from special teamer and former Notre Dame backup Ryan Grant, who will be hard-pressed to duplicate that against a defense that doesn’t…well, stink? The Packers continue to be carried by their passing game, which ranks second in the NFL with 282.2 yards per game. Somewhere along the line, we think that number has to come down, but as long as the line keeps protecting Favre and young receivers Greg Jennings and James Jones keep making strides, it won’t happen here. Pop open a Leinenkugel’s, Packer fans: unless Bad Brett snatches it out of your hands, your team will be 7-1.

Packers by 6