Washington Wizards 2007 Preview

The official team motto was “Go All In,” but judging from the way the 2006-07 season ended for the Wizards and their fans, it was more like: “What Might Have Been.” Late-season injuries to All-Stars Gilbert Arenas (left knee) and Caron Butler (fractured right hand) turned a promising season — the Wizards had the best record in the East just before the All-Star break — into a dicey finish and a quick exit from the playoffs.

Arenas, who was being mentioned as an MVP candidate while tearing the league up with high-scoring performances and game-winning shots during December and January, will be full speed, as will Butler, who earned his first All-Star appearance by posting career numbers in several categories. But the team still will face major issues.

Arenas and second-leading scorer Antawn Jamison are entering contract years, the center position continues to be a question mark and coach Eddie Jordan’s team will never be considered a serious championship contender until it matches its high-powered offense with some semblance of defensive intensity.

The good news is that in Arenas, Butler and Jamison, the Wizards will once again have the league’s highest-scoring trio. Shooting guard DeShawn Stevenson is back, and the team added some much-needed youth and athleticism in rookies Nick Young, Oleksiy Pecherov and Dominic McGuire. Also, forward Darius Songaila should be at full speed after missing the first 45 games of last season with a back injury.

Frontcourt
Inconsistent on the court and combative off of it — that’s the best way to describe centers Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas. Team president Ernie Grunfeld wanted to trade one of them, but as of mid-August hadn’t been able to find any deals that made sense.

Haywood has been the primary starter over the last three seasons but has repeatedly clashed with Jordan and averaged only 6.6 points and 6.2 rebounds in 22.6 minutes last season. Still, Haywood’s length and quickness make him a solid defender and his plus/minus numbers are better than Thomas’.

Thomas earned the starting job coming out of camp last season and was Jordan’s preferred option, but he was again bothered by injury and has never developed a consistent low-post scoring game to go along with the physical presence he brings to positional defense and rebounding.

Haywood and Thomas have engaged in at least three locker room or practice court fights in the last two seasons, leading team leader Jamison to comment: “Something has to change.” But Grunfeld is reluctant to move Haywood, because it’s almost impossible to get a legitimate starting center in return, and Thomas has three years and over $20 million remaining on his contract, making it extremely difficult to move him.

Depth could come from Pecherov, the 7'0" Ukrainian who was taken in the first round of the 2006 draft before spending another season in Europe, and Andray Blatche, who has flashed an array of skills in limited action during his first two seasons. Pecherov is comfortable facing the basket and has tremendous ball-handling and shooting skills for a man his size. Still, Jordan could use Pecherov, Blatche or Songaila at center to dictate matchups against bigger teams.

The power forward spot will once again be manned by Jamison, who simply shows up every night and provides scoring, rebounding and professionalism. Look for Jamison to have another strong season; at 31, he knows he doesn’t have many big paydays left.

Butler was the team’s most consistent player at both ends before going down with a season-ending hand injury on April 1. Butler is a nice fit for Arenas and Jamison, because he can get points off of called plays and in transition or on offensive rebounds. Blatche can play several positions and appears to be a natural rebounder.

Songaila earned Jordan’s trust with his rugged inside play and crafty approach. He’s a skilled passer and shooter and knows how to get his shot off against bigger opponents. Pecherov will most likely see the majority of his minutes at power forward, and Jordan has raved about the all-around skills of McGuire, the team’s second-round pick out of Fresno State. McGuire could see action as Butler’s backup at small forward.

Backcourt
All eyes will be on Arenas. Not only is the three-time All-Star coming off of the first serious injury of his career, but he also plans on opting out of his contract next summer to become an unrestricted free agent. Already one of the game’s top pure scorers, Arenas is the rare player who not only wants the ball at crunch time but can consistently make buzzer-beating shots. He’s also the most popular athlete in the nation’s capital.

The question is whether the quirky Arenas will ever fully invest at the defensive end. He clearly has the athletic ability to be a top-flight defender, but he too often gambles for steals and gets caught on screens or loses track of his man while following the ball. Then there is the question of leadership. Last season, Arenas emphatically stated that he isn’t a leader and never will be. Is that the kind of player who warrants a maximum contract? The Wizards must answer that question before next summer, when Arenas hits the open market.

Grunfeld made Arenas happy by re-signing Stevenson, who started 82 games and was a solid defender and consistent outside shooter in his first season with the team. Young was a pure scorer at USC, and the Wizards badly need some shooting touch and playmaking off a bench that was the league’s lowest-scoring.

Antonio Daniels is a veteran combo guard who lacks a consistent jump shot but makes good decisions with the basketball and plays solid defense.

Final Analysis
This will be a crucial season in determining the future. Arenas and Jamison are entering contract seasons, and young players like Blatche, Young, Pecherov and McGuire will try to establish themselves. The Wizards have sublime offensive talent, depth and experience and should be among the top teams in the wide-open East. “We’re right there,” Arenas says. “Before the injuries hit, we showed that we could play with anyone in the league. I don’t see any reason why we can’t do that again when we get everyone back.”

Still, until Jordan gets his team to buy in at the defensive end, the Wizards will be the kind of team that wins a ton of games in the regular season only to be dispatched in the playoffs.