Week 7: NY Jets at Cincinnati

These two underachieving teams have their strong suits and plenty of skill-position talent on offense, but it’s worth mentioning – in the name of honesty and also because, you know, look at their records – that at some point one or both of them must be acknowledged as terrible teams. After this week, one of them will undoubtedly be that. Going into it, it’s kind of hard to argue that they’re both not. How’s that for a dramatic framing device? And yet…we can’t quite write off either one.

The Jets can’t quite seem to get it right on offense, and blew a very winnable home game against the Eagles in Week 5. With an improving offensive line, the team’s considerable offensive problems have emerged as the result of two things. First, there’s the fact that Chad Pennington’s limitations as a passer have seemingly surpassed his estimable leadership abilities; his Jets sit near the bottom of the NFL with just 189.9 passing yards per game, despite a capable corps of receivers. Here’s where the second problem – play-calling so conservative that it makes Pat Robertson look like Dennis Kucinich – comes in. Coach Eric Mangini’s fetish for short passes and “mistake-free” football has led to calls that are predictable when they’re not merely puzzling. It has also allowed opponents to stack their defenses against the run. While RB Thomas Jones had his first legitimately good game of the season in Week 6 (130 yards on 24 carries), and promises to be a bigger part of the offense going forward, he won’t be able to do much without a counterpoint that keeps defenses honest. The Jets lack of counterpoint has much to do with lack of points.

Which may make things interesting, because Cincinnati has proven itself totally unable to keep any team from scoring. The Bengals’ 31.2 points-allowed per game is the worst in the NFL and, if it’s even possible, the defense has actually been worse than that: they rank in the NFL’s bottom five in both rushing and passing defense. The injury-depleted unit comes into this game fresh off giving up 354 yards to a terrible Chiefs offense. While this crew of underachievers may well have met their match in the equally torpid Jets offense, it’s hard to pick the Bengals to win anything when they’re giving up more than four touchdowns per contest.

Of course, that wasn’t supposed to matter. The idea was that, when the Bengals defense slipped, the offense would pick up the slack. But while Cincy fans were promised something along the lines of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors – give up 106 points, score 107 – the Bengals usually potent offense has been more chaotic than a night out on the town with said Warriors. Even with Rudi Johnson still a bit gimpy after a Week 3 hamstring injury, the offense is too talented to keep making so many mistakes. Carson Palmer has recently suffered through his worst back-to-back games as a pro, and has endured woofing from Chad Johnson – no doubt frustrated by his inability to break out his Carrot-Top-Visits-The-End-Zone prop comedy post-TD masterpieces – and booing from his home crowd. Palmer is too good, and his receivers are too good, for him to struggle like this for a third week. Especially against a defense as mediocre as the one they face this week.

Ultimately, we see the Jets’ lack of consistent defense as their undoing in this one – after all, they should be able to score some points. But while the Jets have been moderately tough against the weaker offenses they’ve played, they lack the talent in the secondary to stay with the Bengals’ receivers over the course of a whole game. Factor in a rushing defense that allows 131.5 yards per game, and it’s easy to see how the Jets settled at 1-5. Cincinnati is as mistake-prone as any team besides Miami, but unless the Jets can do something to force those mistakes, it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to slow the Bengals enough to win this one.

We’re just about ready to stop picking the Bengals – they’ve lost every game we predicted them to win this year – but we’re definitely not ready to pick the Jets. Once again, our excitement over this game is perhaps excessive. Sorry.

Bengals by 6