Week 1: Chiefs at Texans

Thought experiment: You’re booked for a middle seat on a long-delayed flight to Gary, Indiana, headed to a trade show at which you will be expected to take detailed notes on jargon-intensive PowerPoint presentations regarding trends in footwear for the elderly. You’re staying at a Super 8, double-occupancy, with Rich, a guy from work who complains often about how rash-prone he is. But wait: a message arrives that you will be spared the trip to Gary, the note-taking, the bunking with rashy Rich, if only you will spend three beer-free hours glued to the Chiefs/Texans game. What do you do?

Is it that bad? Maybe not: Gary’s pretty terrible, Rich could have something communicable, and you can go a few hours without a beer. But while there are a number of great games in Week One, this sure isn’t one. Somebody had to play the Chiefs, and somebody had to play Houston but…look, we just hope that you’re not in the broadcast area for this one. Those folks won’t be given a choice at all.

Chiefs RB Larry Johnson, the only game-breaker on either side, will not play much. After a lengthy holdout, Johnson barely had a preseason and will carry a light load in Week One. A break is probably a good thing for Larry, who rushed an astonishing 416 times in 2006, but without him the Chiefs look…well, awful.

Journeyman QB Damon Huard played well last season, but he remains Damon Huard until further notice. He inherits a much-weakened offensive line and a receiving corps highlighted by aging TE Tony Gonzalez and aged WR Eddie Kennison. Kansas City should struggle to score points here, and for the foreseeable future.

The Texans are raw and give up a lot of points, but their pass rushers – LB DeMeco Ryans, DE Mario Williams, DT Amobi Okoye – are actually pretty good, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them spending some quality time in KC’s backfield.

Although the Texans were sparky at the end of ’06, they have neither the polish on defense nor the personnel on offense to beat good teams. There’s a chance that QB Matt Schaub is the real deal, but the second round pick the Texans sent the Falcons for Schaub in the offseason was essentially a deal for his scouting specs. (The $48 million they’re paying him over six years is not a deal by any standard)

Schaub has little NFL game experience, and his mobility – not considered a strong suit – and poise will be tested behind the Texans weak O-line. And while RB Ahman Green is a step up over last year’s awful running back platoon, there are some valid questions about how many, if any, good years he has left.

Those long-term questions aside, though, the Texans are not facing a terribly stout defense here, and probably won’t have to score much to win. If Schaub isn’t watching the game from his back – a vantage point only slightly worse than watching it in that Super 8 with itchy Rich – he and the Texans should win this one. How long it is before either team wins again is anyone’s guess.

Texans by 7