With two weeks to go until the Chase for the Sprint Cup begins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, everyone in the NASCAR world is talking about which drivers and teams are the favorites for this year’s title. However, there is one factor often overlooked in the discussion, and that is the racetracks involved. The surfaces that the championship will be decided on are an important part of the equation, to the extent that I would say track selection has really helped Jimmie Johnson win the last three titles.

But who else do these tracks favor? Let’s break it down. Assuming the current top dozen make the Chase, who’s got the best shot each week based on past performance and track type? And which tracks in the Chase are really Chase-worthy at all?

Week 1: New Hampshire
New Hampshire Motor Speedway looks like Martinsville on a ’roid bender. Long straightaways and short, flat turns make passing difficult. The best drivers here must also avoid tangling with others, as a wreck can take up the whole track in an instant. It won’t make a would-be champ, but it sure can break one. 

The track favors: Denny Hamlin, who has raced in seven of the last 10 races here with an average finish of 8.3. Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin. 

It could hurt: Juan Pablo Montoya, who has never scored a top 10 at the track and has an average finish of 20.6.

Week 2: Dover
For the second consecutive week, the Chasers will tackle a one-mile track, but Dover is about as similar to NHMS as Bristol is to Martinsville. Dover is high banked and fast, where a wreck can collect others in an instant. This is a great track for the Chase because it has plenty of excitement, but isn’t going to be a 43-car wreck-fest either. 

The track favors: The most recent winner at the Monster Mile, Jimmie Johnson. He has an average finish of 7.6 in the last 10 Dover races. Greg Biffle, with an average finish 5.3 in the last 10. Ryan Newman, Denny Hamlin.

It could hurt: Kasey Kahne, who owns only two top 10s in the last 10 Dover races (average finish in that time 24.4). Juan Pablo Montoya, like Kahne, has averaged a 24.4-place finish.

Week 3: Kansas 
Kansas is the first of too many 1.5- and two-mile tracks in the Chase — and the least deserving of the bunch. Races here have the potential to become fuel mileage contests at a track that has hosted only eight Cup events.

The track favors: Jeff Gordon, with two wins and an average finish of 9.8). Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart.

It could hurt: Again, Montoya who averages a 24th-place showing. Danny Hamlin (zero top-10 finishes, average finish of 22.5).

Week 4: Auto Club Speedway 
If long, aerodynamic-dependent green flag runs with little passing prove racing talent, the two-mile track in Fontana is the template. Of course, for most fans the racing is boring and many of them simply stay away. This track has little business on the schedule at all and absolutely none in the Chase.

The track favors: Jimmie Johnson, with his three wins and 6.2-place average career finish. Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth.

It could hurt: Sorry Juan, your number — and your 22nd-place average finish — is up again. Ryan Newman (average finish: 19th).

Week 5: Charlotte 
The hopefully-soon-to-be once again Charlotte Motor Speedway is the home track for most teams and the place where they all want to showcase their talent to the sponsors. It’s also the only night race in the Chase.  Of the 1.5-milers, this track usually produces a decent show and as home track, has earned its spot in the playoffs.

The track favors: Jimmie Johnson and Team 48, which owns five points-paying race wins here. Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne.

It could hurt: Kurt Busch, who has but three top 10s here in 18 starts. Ryan Newman (20.7-place average career finish).

Week 6: Martinsville 
The paperclip-shaped short track requires some tough driving and can make for a long day if things don’t go well. It has undoubtedly earned its spot in the Chase based on its historical and action-packed relevance. Expect a thrilling finish at this stop.

The track favors: Jimmie Johnson. Is any track in this thing not good to this guy? The numbers don’t lie for Johnson: Six wins, 14 top 10s in 15 career starts. Dude is money. Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Juan Pablo Montoya.

It could hurt: Greg Biffle, who has only one top-10 showing in his career at Martinsville. Kurt Busch, whose one win (2003) is offset by a 21.8-place average finish.

Week 7: Talladega 
What NASCAR was thinking by putting the biggest crapshoot of the year with just three races to go in the Chase, I can’t say. But this is the race where someone else’s mistake could end someone’s title hope once and for all. This stop should be replaced in the Chase by Daytona, because a restrictor plate track does belong — but they picked the wrong one.

The track favors: Kurt Busch, who somehow has managed to avoid the carnage to register 12 top 10s in 17 career starts. Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth.

It could hurt: Anyone, but Mark Martin just despises the joint. Greg Biffle (one career top 10). Jeff Gordon, who, despite his three wins, has an average finish of just 20.4 in the last 10 visits.

Week 8: Texas 
This is the other intermediate that truly belongs, as it produces some decent, clean racing — important after Talladega takes her toll.

The track favors: Matt Kenseth (no wins but an average of 7.8 in the last 10 races). Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart.

It could hurt: Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman. Each have a win, but each have an average finish worse than 20th, as well.

Week 9: Phoenix 
A quirky mile, Phoenix is the perfect race in this spot as it’s a unique test of the driver as well as the team.

The track favors: Jimmie Johnson has won three of the last four and has never finished worse than 15th. Denny Hamlin, Mark Martin.

It could hurt: Ryan Newman (23rd-place average run. Juan Pablo Montoya (zero top 10s, five starts). Matt Kenseth (26.6-place average finish over the last three trips).

Week 10: Homestead 
Homestead is both a great place to finish the Chase (long green flag runs, easy to stay out of trouble, drivers can play it safe) and a terrible place to finish the season (long green flag runs, easy to stay out of trouble, drivers can play it safe). It’s been better since the addition of graduated banking, but I’d like to see the whole season wrap up somewhere with better racing — perhaps Las Vegas or at home in Charlotte — as Homestead typically provides an anticlimactic conclusion to a long season.

The track favors: Carl Edwards (one win, average finish of 6.4 in five starts). Gre Biffle, Tony Stewart.

It could hurt: Though most of the players will be out of the game by this time, the track is pretty rough on Montoya and Newman, who each average sub-20th-place finishes.

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