I can identify the exact moment I became a believer. In the Titans, that is. And in a wild prediction that no longer seems the least bit nuts.

My epiphany came five plays into Tennessee’s all-or-nothing final possession against Arizona last Sunday. Vince Young had just completed a 10-yard pass to wide receiver Kenny Britt on fourth-and-4 to move the Titans beyond the shadow of their goal line. Young again took the shotgun snap and fired a pass across the middle toward running back Chris Johnson, but it was deflected high in the air, the kind of loose ball that typically winds up in the hands of a defender, simply because there tend to be more of them in the vicinity. But somehow the ball fell in the arms of tight end Bo Scaife, who gathered it in and bulled forward for a 19-yard gain.

I knew right then that the Cardinals were toast. Thirteen plays later, Young finished a 99-yard drive with a completion to Britt in the end zone with no time on the clock. It was an amazing win over the Cardinals, a division-leading team that had been 5-0 on the road heading into the game.

“Feels like something special is happening,” defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch said afterward.

Sure does. Especially considering it happened at what stands to become the midway point of the realization of Johnson’s prophecy. You remember, the one where he said the Titans — at that point 1-6 following their first victory of the season — would win out and, depending how things fell, perhaps make the playoffs. They’re 5-6, friends, and the Titans have four winnable games left on their schedule — plus the one Sunday (1 p.m. Eastern) at Indianapolis. The Big Test.

The Colts are 11-0, and depending on whether you’re a glass-half-full or a glass-half-empty type, it’s either a shaky 11-0 or a solid 11-0. The optimists among us will point to the gutsy resolve that has produced fourth-quarter comeback wins five weeks running. But the pessimists will say Indy dang near lost those games — and is due to come up short before long. What better team to take down Indy than destiny’s darlings in Nashville?

Logic says the Colts have the advantage. Their defense is playing as well as any in the league. Can any other unit say it held Johnson — he of the six straight games of 125-plus rushing yards and league-leading total of 1,396 — to a paltry 34 yards? Nope. But that’s what Indy did in Week 5, when the Colts won, 31-9. And though Peyton Manning is going through a bit of a rough stretch (six interceptions over the last three weeks), he keeps racking up touchdowns and passing every gut check. The Colts also are riding a 20-game regular-season winning streak, one shy of New England’s league record.

But Tennessee is a team on a mission. And I, for one, have seen the light.

Go ahead, be skeptical. Oh ye of little faith.

A quick look at the rest of the Week 13 action (all times Eastern):

SUNDAY

Houston (5-6) at Jacksonville (6-5), 1 p.m. While the Titans and Colts do battle in Indy, the lesser half of the AFC South locks horns in northern Florida. For the Texans, the playoffs — or the closest facsimile they’ve ever known — start now. After losing three straight, it’s win out or else, and even that might not be enough. The Texans won’t have to worry about boisterous support of the home team; crowds at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium have had a by-invitation-only look to them all season. And their best weapon, wide receiver Andre Johnson, won’t have to deal with cornerback Rashean Mathis, who will miss his third straight game. Johnson probably will go up against rookie Derek Cox, so Johnson and quarterback Matt Schaub have to be licking their chops, especially considering the Jags’ anemic pass rush does their corners no favors. But the Texans have been finding ways to lose, and until they ran afoul of the 49ers last week the Jaguars had been finding ways to win. The Colts locked up the division title last week, but if the Texans knock off the Jags, three AFC South teams will be tied for second at 6-6. Because we know the Titans will triumph, right?

Philadelphia (7-4) at Atlanta (6-5), 1 p.m. Maybe this is the week Andy Reid has been waiting to turn Michael Vick loose — his homecoming week. Vick, who has been taking just a few snaps a game in the Eagles’ Wildcat looks, will be making his first business trip to Atlanta since a prison sentence led to a two-year NFL exile. With playmaking wide receiver DeSean Jackson almost certainly sidelined with a concussion and a good chunk of the Georgia Dome crowd likely cheering for Vick, this might not be a bad time to give the former Falcon Pro Bowler a few more touches. The Falcons have injury concerns as well; running back Michael Turner (ankle) is iffy after reinjuring his ankle last week, quarterback Matt Ryan is out and the list goes on. Chris Redman will make his first NFL start since 2007 while Ryan attends to a hurt toe. One school of thought says a full week’s worth of reps with the first team will give Redman a boost over last week, when he stepped in on short notice and led the Falcons to a come-from-behind win over Tampa Bay. Thing is, the Eagles have had a full week to watch film of Redman, so they’ll have a better notion of what to do with him than the Bucs did. And they’re much better equipped to do it. The Falcons haven’t lost at home this season, but bear in mind that for six years, Vick called the Georgia Dome home.

New England (7-4) at Miami (5-6), 1 p.m. When the Patriots met the Dolphins four weeks ago, they exorcised the demons of their infamous “Wildcat” loss early in the 2008 season. Now they need to exorcise the demons of two losses in the last three weeks (to the Colts and Saints). It has been a while since a Tom Brady team had its back against the wall, but that’s where the Patriots find themselves now. Even though they lead the AFC East, they trail the AFC’s three other division leaders, and they need the highest playoff seed they can get so they can finagle as many home playoff games as possible. Their road record — 1-4, with the “1” coming in London, of all places — is just plain sad. Of course, if the Patriots want to build up some confidence about playing away games, this Sunday would be a good time to start.

Tampa Bay (1-10) at Carolina (4-7), 1 p.m. In the four games since rookie Josh Freeman took over as their starting quarterback, the Bucs have upset Green Bay, lost to Miami by two points, lost to the Saints by 31 (join the club) and lost to the Falcons by three. In other words, they’ve been in all but one game. Tampa faces a Carolina team that may well be without running back DeAngelo Williams, whose ankle isn’t right, and will be without quarterback Jake Delhomme, who just isn’t right, period (and who now has a broken finger to boot). Matt Moore, who made three starts as a rookie in 2007, didn’t play at all last year and has appeared in two games this season, has been taking practice snaps this week and will start in Delhomme’s place. That’s a bit of a negative for the Bucs, who don’t have much film of him to watch — unless they want to rewind footage of his 12 passes from this season over and over.

Denver (7-4) at Kansas City (3-8), 1 p.m. For four weeks, the Broncos were a mess. All the things they did right while starting 6-0 — protecting the ball, playing shutdown defense, owning the second half — went 180 degrees the other way. But Thanksgiving evening brought order to the chaos as the Broncos subdued the Giants, and it’s unlikely they’ll lose their mojo in Kansas City. Elvis Dumervil, who leads the league with 14 sacks, will be all over Matt Cassel, who has been sacked 35 times, more than anyone in the league other than Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers. Kyle Orton, meanwhile, has the luxury of taking his time and surveying the field while the Chiefs’ pass rush, such as it is, struggles to get past Denver’s blockers. The Broncos, a game behind San Diego but leaders in the wild-card race, know what it’s like to lose to an inferior team (Washington). Which makes it all the more unlikely they’ll let it happen again.

St. Louis (1-10) at Chicago (4-7), 1 p.m. You can hardly blame Bears fans if they’re pining for the days Kyle Orton led their team to victories. Even Brian Urlacher, who was reduced to fandom when he suffered a season-ending wrist injury in Week 1, was longing for yesteryear in a recent interview. The crux of the problem has been the Bears’ inability to run the ball — no NFL team has been worse this season — but what looks like the perfect tonic is headed to Soldier Field on Sunday. The Rams have been lousy against the run, especially the last four weeks, when they allowed season-best rushing totals by the likes of Justin Forsett (130 yards), Tim Hightower (110), Reggie Bush (83) and Maurice Morris (63). Maybe Matt Forte can break the 50-yard mark for the first time in a month. And Jay Cutler has to feel some sense of hope facing a defense that has intercepted only eight passes this season. In Cutler terms, that’s about two weeks’ worth.

New Orleans (11-0) at Washington (3-8), 1 p.m. No need to belabor the point: If the Saints can disassemble the Patriots, they should have no trouble with the Redskins. It’s that simple.

Oakland (3-8) at Pittsburgh (6-5), 1 p.m. Raiders-Steelers games always remind me of Franco Harris, Jack Tatum and the Immaculate Reception. It took a miracle for the Steelers to win that long-ago playoff game, and while they might not need a miracle to make the playoffs after losing three straight, they do need everything to go right from here on out, starting with a win over the Raiders. Ordinarily, that would be a pretty easy accomplishment, but with Ben Roethlisberger not a sure thing because of a concussion and Troy Polamalu still out, this is no gimme — especially considering the typically terrible Raiders managed to beat Philly and Cincinnati. And Pittsburgh lost to Kansas City, for Pete’s sake. Put it this way: If the Steelers don’t win this game, you can write off the defending Super Bowl champions, because any team that loses to both Oakland and Kansas City has no business being in the playoffs.

Detroit (2-9) at Cincinnati (8-3), 1 p.m. What you must understand about the Bengals is this: They play a physical game on both sides of the ball. They can run the ball with just about anybody; Cedric Benson, Bernard Scott and now Larry Johnson have all recorded 100-yard rushing games. Running against Cincinnati has been next to impossible, and cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall make it almost as difficult to pass. Every aspect of the game has been clicking so well for the Bengals that quarterback Carson Palmer and wide receiver Chad Ochocinco have just been along for the ride much of the time. This is a well-rounded, tough, fundamentally sound football team — or pretty much the antithesis of Detroit.

San Diego (8-3) at Cleveland (1-10), 4:05 p.m. Speaking of mismatches, the Chargers might play without defenders Shawne Merriman, Luis Castillo and Eric Weddle. Ordinarily, this would be a cause for concern. But these are the Chargers, those are the Browns, and this week it shouldn’t matter one whit.

Dallas (8-3) at New York Giants (6-5), 4:15 p.m. With six wins in their last seven games, the Cowboys have been the class of the NFC East. Quarterback Tony Romo and wide receiver Miles Austin are clicking, the running game of Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice has become a three-headed monster and the defense hasn’t allowed any team in the last five weeks to score more than 17 points. The Giants, on the other hand, are in a 1-5 tailspin following a 5-0 start and have about as much momentum as Tiger Woods’ P.R. campaign. The best thing going for New York is the calendar, which now reads “December.” That’s the bewitching month for Romo, who has a career record of 5-8 in December, plus two January losses in the playoffs. That doesn’t mean Romo can’t keep up his strong play. It just means history says he won’t.

San Francisco (5-6) at Seattle (4-7), 4:15 p.m. San Francisco’s Mike Singletary seems to be on to something. Singletary, a run-the-ball-and-play-tough-defense coach, opened up the offense a week ago, letting Alex Smith throw the ball 41 times and hand it off 17. And Smith, working mostly from the shotgun, looked sharp while throwing for 232 yards and two touchdowns and, most notably, not tossing an interception for the first time in his five starts this season. The spread offense seems to suit Smith, which shouldn’t be a surprise, considering that’s what he ran at Utah, prompting the attention that made him a No. 1 overall draft choice in the first place. The Seahawks should have some idea of what to expect, but a passing defense that ranks 25th in the league could struggle in coverage against wide receiver Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis. And if Singletary decides to go back to his old ways — which probably isn’t the thing to do, by the way — there’s always running back Frank Gore to contend with. The Seahawks can counter with running back Justin Forsett, who has rushed for 100-plus yards in two out of the last three weeks, but the 49ers rank fifth in the league in rushing defense, allowing only 94.8 yards per game. And without a running threat, quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is typically an easy target.

Minnesota (10-1) at Arizona (7-4), 8:20 p.m. It’s fitting that when Brett Favre plays in his 283rd consecutive game Sunday, breaking the record he shares with former Vikings defensive end Jim Marshall, the opposing quarterback probably won’t be Kurt Warner. They’re both future Hall of Famers, but while Favre keeps doing his Energizer bunny thing, Warner probably will be sidelined with a concussion. Warner is a tough sonofagun, but he is as good an example as any of how hard it is for quarterbacks to stay healthy. If Warner can’t go, that means Matt Leinart again will get the start. Leinart did a very serviceable job in the Cardinals’ crushing loss to Tennessee last week, but he just doesn’t have the downfield arm to make full use of a strong receiving corps. And that will be a real problem against a quarterback who does have that kind of arm, and has been using it all season.

MONDAY

Baltimore (6-5) at Green Bay (7-4), 8:30 p.m. This game lacks some of the glitter of last week’s Patriots-Saints Monday matchup, but my guess is this one will be less one-sided and almost as explosive. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco and wide receiver Derrick Mason can light it up through the air, and running back Ray Rice has emerged as one of the league’s most potent running-receiving threats. For the Packers, quarterback Aaron Rodgers plays games that feel almost flawless at times, and he has been getting better protection of late. With wide receivers Donald Driver and Greg Jennings and running back Ryan Grant around him, the Packers answer with a high-charged offense of their own. But both defenses are highly ranked as well, so look for plenty of hard hits and the occasional slobberknocker. Last week’s game was memorable for the Saints’ utter domination of the Patriots on both sides of the ball. This week’s game promises a more exciting finish.

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