Draft stock rises and falls based on what NFL coaches, scouts and team executives see on the field turf and hear in the interview rooms at the Scouting Combine in Indianapolis, where the event has been held annually since 1987.

To put the importance of the NFL Scouting Combine in perspective, since 2000 there have been only 14 players selected in the first three rounds who did not attend the Combine. Although not all players choose to work out, every invited prospect is put under the microscope during team interviews, medical examinations and weigh-ins.

This year’s Combine got off to a fast start, with two of the top offensive prospects in the 2009 NFL Draft making waves right out of the gate.

OL is AWOL

When the NFL regular season ended just two months ago, many speculated that Alabama left tackle Andre Smith would be the No. 1 overall pick of the Detroit Lions. Since then, the 6’4”, 332-pound Outland Trophy winner has seen his stock take more hits than he ever allowed Crimson Tide quarterback John Parker Wilson to take. As a matter of fact, Smith could use a blindside bodyguard of his own to prevent further damage, because agent Alvin Keels is having trouble stopping the all-out blitz.

On Friday, Smith announced to a room of league executives and NFL Draft peers that he would not be competing in the bench press because he was out of shape. According to Smith, he signed with an agent (Keels) just one week ago — despite having been suspended for Bama’s game against Utah in the Sugar Bowl due to rumored inappropriate contact with an agent — and had not had time to train properly. Smith, however, did not say whether or not he would be working out on Saturday during the 40-yard dash and position drills.

When Saturday rolled around, Smith was nowhere to be found. As a result, it was announced over the Lucas Oil Stadium public address system that one of the top OL prospects was AWOL. It turns out that Smith had decided not to work out and assumed that he had done everything he needed to in Indianapolis. So, he rescheduled his flight to Atlanta from 4:00 p.m. to the early bird 6:00 a.m. trip back down south. But he did so without informing his agent or anyone at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Although many hoped Smith would compete against Virginia’s Eugene Monroe, Baylor’s Jason Smith and Ole Miss’ Michael Oher, his chief left tackle rivals, few expected the 22-year-old to workout — which is fine, many elite prospects choose to conduct private workouts in the friendly confines of their university’s Pro Day. All Smith had to do in Indy was weigh in somewhere near playing weight and then stand around in sweatpants.

Instead, Smith raised additional character concerns and put all of his eggs in his March 11 Alabama Pro Day basket. In the end, he will still likely go in the top half of the first round based on the rare size-speed-talent combo he possesses, but Smith’s embarrassed getaway likely cost him millions of dollars.

If Smith had run as fast on the Combine turf as he did to the airport in Indy, he may have worked his way back into the No. 1 overall pick conversation. Instead, he’ll have to play the A-Rod “young and stupid” card leading up to the 2009 NFL Draft on April 25.

Crabwalk

Another top prospect also lost momentum in Indianapolis. Texas Tech wide receiver Michael Crabtree, the only two-time Biletnikoff Award winner in NCAA history, was given the unfortunate news that he has a stress fracture in his left foot that will require surgery and a 10-week rehabilitation process.

Crabtree played the 2008 season with a right foot injury but was unaware of the left foot problem until the thorough physical examination that is routine during the Combine. Now, the 21-year-old from Dallas must decide whether or not to workout on his Pro Day on March 26. He claims that he will run for scouts in Lubbock before having the necessary surgery.

“Regarding my injury report, it was an injury I’ve been having,” said Crabtree. “I’ve never had any pain in it. I will run my 40 and after I do that I’m going to have surgery. And I’m looking forward to going to the next level.”

Crabtree has proven his playmaking ability on the field, with 134 catches for 1,962 yards and 22 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman and 97 catches for 1,165 yards and 19 scores this season — including a memorable last-second game-winning grab to knock off Texas. But after measuring in at 6’1” in Indy — as opposed to the 6’3” he was listed at during his two-year playing career with the Red Raiders — many are questioning Crab’s size, speed, and now, his durability.

Rising Stock

It wasn’t all bad news, however. There were more than a few prospects who wowed scouts and all but cashed checks at the Combine.

• Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford chose not to throw the football at the Combine and will show off his right arm cannon on his March 19 Pro Day in Athens. The current consensus to go No. 1 overall, Stafford did display excellent athleticism, running a 4.81 in the 40, a 30.5” vertical leap and 8’11” broad jump.

• Ohio State running back Chris “Beanie” Wells weighed in at a cut-up 6’1”, 235 pounds before running a 4.59 in the 40, benching 225 pounds 25 times and broad-jumping an explosive 10’8” — which turned into a replay comedy but ultimately was the best broad jump of any running back working out in Indy. An injury history follows Beanie closer than would-be tacklers, but there were no signs of trouble this weekend.

• Another Ohio State product, receiver Brian Robiskie, looked like a pro. The son of Falcons receivers coach Terry Robiskie measured in at 6’3”, had a 37.5” vertical and ran a respectable 40 in the mid-to-high 4.5 range, ending any speculation of his being a sure-handed but slow-footed possession receiver. Robiskie did, however, put his hands to work, making one particularly impressive one-handed grab while his old man couldn’t help but smile while looking on (as a scout) from the stands.

• While Robiskie appeared to be the most polished receiver, he was not the fastest. Maryland’s Darrius Heyward-Bey ran a 4.30 in the 40, which tied for the second-fastest time for a receiver since 2000 — trailing Hampton’s Jerome Mathis (4.28 in 2005) and tying Kansas State’s Yamon Figurs (4.30 in 2007).

• Other speed merchants scorching the track in Indy included Ole Miss’ Mike Wallace (4.33), Abilene Christian’s Johnny Knox (4.34) and Penn State’s Deon Butler (4.38). Although a sub-4.4 time doesn’t make a prospect a good player, it doesn’t hurt in a game of inches that becomes a game of tenths at the Combine.

• The elite left tackle prospects — other than Bama’s Andre Smith — helped themselves in Indianapolis. In particular, Baylor’s Jason Smith looked ready to suit up on Sundays, running a 5.22 in the 40 and ripping 33 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press. The “Bizarro Smith”, Jason proved to be the opposite of Andre by showing up in shape and ready to workout at the most important job interview of an NFL player’s career.

“Those who won’t are no better than those who can’t,” said Super Bowl XXXV winning Ravens coach turned NFL Network commentator Brian Billick. And every year, the Combine exposes those who won’t and those who can’t, while putting the spotlight on those who are eager to compete and succeed against the best.

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