Week 11: Minnesota at Tampa Bay

The Vikings are above .500 for the first time this season thanks mainly to Adrian Peterson, whose 192 yards rushing against Green Bay was one of the best games anyone in the NFL has had this year. Peterson hoisted the Vikings on his shoulders in that one, getting the ball six times on Minnesota’s game-winning, seven-play TD drive that ended up beating Green Bay, 28-27.

The Bucs’ defense is a lot better than Green Bay’s, though, and MLB Barrett Ruud will have something to say about how Peterson performs in this one. Tampa Bay is in a dogfight in the NFC South, where it is tied with Atlanta in second place, one game behind 7-2 Carolina.

Minnesota plays in a weaker division, made so in part by Brett Favre’s “retirement” and eventual defection to the New York Jets. The Vikings now hold a share of first place in the NFC North with Chicago. Somebody from that division is actually going to get to host a playoff game, but it’s not going to be clear who for some time.

Minnesota is getting somewhat shaky QB play from Gus Frerotte, who was picked off three times by the Packers, once for a TD. He has won five of his seven starts this season, however, and is starting to find high-priced free agent WR Bernard Berrian more often.

The Vikings’ rush defense allows only 70 yards per game, tops in the NFL. Whether Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn can make any headway against that unit will help to decide this game.

Tampa Bay had a bye last week and is coming off a subpar effort — a 30-27 overtime win against Kansas City in Week 9 in which the Bucs allowed their first 100-yard rusher of the season to a guy named Jamaal Charles. Yeah, we had to look him up, too. Peterson is a lot better than Charles, but it’s rare that a Monte Kiffin defense has two bad games in a row. The Bucs also have gotten healthier in the bye week, particularly in what has been an injury-riddled backfield.

QB Jeff Garcia will have to avoid big mistakes against Minnesota, which got a safety last week on a Jared Allen sack. The Vikings are a dangerous team. They have already beaten Carolina this season and, after an 0-2 start, seem to be in a groove.

Tampa Bay is tough at home, though, and well-rested.

Tampa Bay by 3