Week 11: Denver at Atlanta

Figure on the winning team getting 34 points in this one if recent history is any judge — both scored exactly that many last week in victories.

Surprising Atlanta is undefeated at home, beat New Orleans by two touchdowns last week and already has far surpassed that ugly 4-12 record of a season ago. Pass-rush specialist John Abraham even says it’s OK to start talking about the playoffs in Falcon-land, which would have seemed like a joke before the season began.

For the second straight week, Atlanta will play a pass-first team. It did enough to slow down Drew Brees and company last week — intercepting Brees three times and knocking down 15 of his throws. Can it do the same thing to Jay Cutler?

Denver’s QB led the Broncos to 21 fourth-quarter points in a 34-30 win over Cleveland the last time the Broncos played, halting (for awhile anyway) the criticism of Denver’s feast-or-famine signal-caller. Cutler is on pace for 32 passing TDs this season — John Elway never had more than 27 — but he’s also on pace for 20 interceptions.

Denver has had an amazing number of running backs get hurt, with three of their top ball-carriers already sidelined for the season and Selvin Young nursing a groin injury. They played FB Peyton Hillis at tailback for much of the Cleveland game. They also signed old tailback Tatum Bell to the team this week and he may get a little action in this one.

The Broncos went with four receivers in an empty-back set for much of the time during that 564-yard effort vs. the Browns, and they’ll likely try that again vs. the Falcons. Expect the Falcons to blitz more if they do.

Unlike the Broncos, the Falcons have two healthy and strong tailbacks in Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. Turner is third in the NFL in rushing yards and Norwood is a constant big-play threat. QB Matt Ryan has played far better at home than on the road. He has five TDs and no interceptions in the Georgia Dome, where Atlanta is 4-0 this year.

Denver certainly has big-play capabilities with Cutler and standout wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal (who had a 93-yard TD grab last week). But Atlanta’s secondary is playing better and the Falcons are more balanced offensively. Their offensive line is really protecting Ryan well (only 12 sacks this season after giving up 47 in 2007).

Atlanta by 4