Vacchiano: Patriots will take Super Bowl XLIII

If Super Bowl XLII had ended with 2:39 to play, most people around the country would be calling the 2007 New England Patriots the greatest team of all time. They would’ve been the first undefeated team since 1972, the first team ever to go 19-0, and they would’ve been recognized for their explosive, record-setting offense. Given the difficulties of winning in the parity-filled, free-agency era, there wouldn’t have even been much of a debate.

Of course, the Super Bowl continued over the final 159 seconds and the New York Giants ended up beating the Patriots 17-14. That left the Patriots with the most disappointing and devastating 18-1 record that any of us are ever likely to see.

But the fact is they were still 18-1. With 2 1/2 minutes to go in the season, they were still the greatest team ever. Now they return almost their whole team in tact.

That’s why they’re going to win Super Bowl XLIII.

I realize the Giants deserve more respect than they’ve been getting — a theme they’ve harped on all summer long — and they need to be taken seriously as contenders. But the fact is that for 99.8 percent of the 2007 season the Patriots were nearly unstoppable. They scored the most points any team has ever scored in NFL history, thanks to Tom Brady’s NFL-record 50 touchdown passes, and Randy Moss’ NFL-record 23 touchdown catches. And their defense was pretty good too, giving up just 288.3 yards per game — good for fourth in the NFL.

And look who’s back for another run? Brady, Moss, Wes Welker (a team-record 112 catches, 1,175 yards), and most of their defense. They also bring back Bill Belichick who may have been badly out coached by Tom Coughlin in the Super Bowl, but in the weeks before that he was having his bust already carved for his eventual place in the Hall of Fame.

In an anything-can-happen-anytime sport, the simple fact is that, to the Patriots as we see them now, nothing bad happened to them last year except on the final night of the season. For nearly five months they were unstoppable.

What makes anyone think it won’t be the same again?

Sure, things change in the NFL. The AFC is pretty tough. Even the AFC East promises not to be the cakewalk it once was. The Buffalo Bills were playing very well at times last season and, despite finishing 7-9, lost some maddeningly close game. The Jets spent over $100 million on new players during the offseason, and that was before they added Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre.

The Steelers, the Colts, the Jaguars, the Chargers all could pose challenges, too. But let’s say you think the Patriots are going to be 25 percent worse than they were last year, even with the same players.

That would still make them 12-4.

The point is, they were so dominant, so impossible to topple for so long, and they’ve shown such an amazing resiliency over the years, that it would take a Roman Empire-like collapse to see them falling apart this season just because they lost one game at the end of the year. That loss might even make them more motivated, since they were so embarrassed on what was supposed to be their coronation day.

Whatever the reasons, they have proven to be a dynasty with staying power. And there should be no doubt that they’ll stay on top at least one more year.

Ralph Vacchiano is the author of Eli Manning: The Making of a Quarterback, which is available for purchase here.

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