Vacchiano: No rematch in Super Bowl XLIII

There ain’t gonna be no rematch.
 
I know, those are famous last words, but in the NFL it’s as good a bet as you’ll find anywhere in professional sports. Because as much as the New England Patriots would love another shot at the Giants for spoiling their perfect season, and as much as the New York Giants would love a chance to prove their Super Bowl win over the Pats was no fluke, the odds are enormous that it’s not going to happen.
 
There hasn’t been a repeat Super Bowl since Dallas and Buffalo went back to back in XXVII and XXVIII (1993-94).
 
In fact, in the 14 years since, only three teams have gone to two straight Super Bowls – the Green Bay Packers (XXXI, XXXII), the Denver Broncos (XXXII, XXXIII) and the New England Patriots (XXXVIII, XXXIX). And the Broncos and Patriots have been the only repeat champs.
 
There have been six different participants in the last three games, which means both the Patriots and the Giants will likely be home by early February, 2009. Sure, the Patriots won’t collapse after an 18-0 season and aren’t likely to just fade into the sunset. And OK, the Giants, with almost all of their key stars returning, are built to last.
 
But something will happen. Something always happens. Injuries. Controversy. A lack of hunger. Bad breaks. Something. Anything.
 
Just ask the Colts and Bears.
 
You remember them, right? They staged a pretty impressive game in Super Bowl XLI. The Bears were the dominant team in the NFC with a defense they thought was one for the ages. The Colts were so strong overall, with the all-world quarterback, it looked like the first of many titles they’d bring to the Midwest.
 
Then everything hit the Bears – contract squabbles, injuries, loss of coaches and key personnel in the offseason. And the Colts took their share of free-agent and injury hits, too. The Bears didn’t even make the playoffs. The Colts didn’t even get out of the first round.
 
And nobody was surprised.
 
Now, no one knows if the same thing will happen to the Giants and Patriots. After all, the Patriots dynasty has been defying the odds for years. They’ve been to four Super Bowls in the last seven years, and they’ve won three, including back-to-back championships in the 2003 and 2004 seasons. But the odds still say they likely won’t be representing the AFC in Tampa in Super Bowl XLIII.
 
So who will? Good question. And rarely is the answer obvious. After all, who would’ve picked the Giants after a turmoil-filled, 8-8 seasons after they lost their best player to the broadcast booth. In the AFC, the pick usually will come from among the powers (the Chargers, Colts, Patriots, Steelers, Jaguars all figure to be factors). But in the NFC, it’s a completely wide-open field.
 
Who’s to say the Giants, Cowboys and Packers will remain on top of the conference? Towards the end of the season there were a lot of people afraid of the New Orleans Saints, the near-Cinderella of 2006. And for a while, the hottest team headed towards the playoffs were the Adrian Peterson-led Minnesota Vikings.
 
Heck, all but three teams in the entire NFC were 7-9 or better, which at least puts them in visual range of a possible turnaround. And are you really willing to count out the San Francisco 49ers (5-11) and injury-plagued St. Louis Rams (3-13), two hot picks from last summer?
 
In the NFL, nowadays, you just never know who’ll rise to the top. The only thing you know for sure is that what gets there ends up sinking. So be satisfied with a thrilling Super Bowl and an upset for the ages.
 
It’s not a match-up you’re likely to see again.

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