Athlon Sports’ 2008 NFL Mock Draft and Top 100 prospect database will be unveiled on Friday, Feb. 15. Until then, we will be taking a look back at the past five NFL Drafts — with a position-by-position breakdown of the players taken in the Top 100 and first round, along with a sneak preview of the 2008 NFL Draft class.

Running on Empty

Unlike most positions, running backs usually hit the ground at full speed upon their arrival in the NFL. The transition from college to the pros is smooth, as many Hall of Fame runners have produced their best seasons early on.

In only his second season, the L.A. Rams’ Eric Dickerson set the NFL single-season rushing record with 2,105 yards in 1984. This year, the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson broke the league’s single-game rushing mark with 296 yards on the ground against the Chargers in Week 9 of his rookie season.

Young tailbacks have fresher and faster legs. And since the position is more dependent on outrunning, outmaneuvering or overpowering defenders than it is learning subtleties or intricate schemes, running backs can go from zero-to-six-points in no time at all.

On the flip side, once a running back “hits the wall” after several years of taking a beating and carrying the load, their skills diminish rapidly. For this reason, a running back is never appropriately valued. As rookies, they are underpaid rising stars; as veterans they are overpaid has-beens. And there is relatively little time in between.

As with anything, there are a few exceptions to the rule. The Cowboys’ Emmitt Smith rushed for an NFL-record 18,355 yards and 164 touchdowns during his 15-year career. But upon further inspection, even Smith had a short window of greatness at the beginning of a career enhanced by longevity. Smith’s five best seasons came in his first six years.

Another extreme, the Oilers’ Earl Campbell ran into the Hall of Fame based on the strength of five of the first six seasons in his eight-year career — when he averaged 1,551 yards and 13 touchdowns per season.

Now, the 1977 Heisman Trophy winner and 1979 NFL MVP is a cautionary tale for the flash-in-the-pan career span of even the greatest running backs. After punishing defenders during his remarkable career, Campbell can barely walk at age 52, often using a wheelchair due to knee and back problems.

A glamorous job, running backs score touchdowns and headlines but also make their money by running into walls of defensive linemen, being slammed down by linebackers and being blindsided by safeties. This adds up to a short career.

With young legs replacing proven veterans before they are able to cash in on the open market, a Pro Bowl running back who is re-signed by the team that drafts him is essentially receiving back-pay for his glory days.

Seattle’s Shaun Alexander is a prime example. After an 1,880-yard, 27-TD season, Alexander the Great was re-signed to an eight-year, $62-million deal with $15 million coming in the first year. Since signing his autograph on the dotted line after the 2005 season, Alexander the Average has failed to top 1,000 yards in 2006 or 2007 and is rumored to be on his way out of the Pacific Northwest.

More teams are going to the two-back set, splitting carries and dollars among two or more runners. But those who still value the featured tailback approach are working the flawed system in their favor. A team can get five years out of a rookie deal, franchise tag for a sixth season and never bite the bullet on a long-term deal.

The Colts blueprint is the model for efficiency. Team president Bill Polian replaced aging expensive veteran Marshall Faulk with cheaper Miami rookie Edgerrin James in 1999, then sent the Edge on his way in favor of LSU rookie Joseph Addai in 2006. A brilliant plan for teams, but bad for running backs.

A quarterback takes five years to mature, while a running back is nearly spent after the same amount of time. Yet they sign similar length rookie deals? These scenarios make being a high draft pick more important than ever for a great running back, since rookie contracts across the board are out of control compared to veteran salaries.

The 2008 NFL Draft running back class features several first-round talents who will be expected to produce right away at the next level — including the Arkansas duo of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, along with Illinois’ Rashard Mendenhall and Oregon’s Jonathan Stewart.

	2007	2006	2005	2004	2003
1st Round	2	4	3	3	2
Top 100	9	9	8	6	6

Over the past five years, an average of eight running backs have been selected in the Top 100 picks — which is roughly the first three rounds — of the NFL Draft. Of those, an average of three backs per year have been first-round choices.

2007	Player, School	Team (Pick)
1st Round	Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma Marshawn Lynch, California	Vikings (7) Bills (12)
Top 100	Kenny Irons, Auburn Chris Henry, Arizona Brandon Jackson, Nebraska Lorenzo Booker, Florida State Tony Hunt, Penn State Garrett Wolfe, Northern Illinois Michael Bush, Louisville	Bengals (49) Titans (50) Packers (63) Dolphins (71) Eagles (90) Bears (93) Raiders (100)

The Offensive Rookie of the Year, Peterson had 238 carries for 1,341 yards (5.6 ypc) and 12 touchdowns in 14 games during his first season. Although he only topped 100 yards in six contests, two of those games were 200-yard efforts — including a record-breaking game (30 carries for 296 yards and three TDs) against the Chargers.

Following his standout rookie season, A.D. ("All Day") earned a trip to the Pro Bowl in Hawaii. Knowing only one speed, Peterson ran as hard as he could on 16 carries for 129 yards and two trips to the end zone, earning Pro Bowl MVP honors. Health permitting, that won't be the last time Peterson shines at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu during his career.

In most other years, Lynch's rookie campaign of 280 carries for 1,115 yards (4.0 ypc) and seven touchdowns would be good for a trophy at the end of the season. But Lynch will have to settle for a year that was better than any rookie runner produced in the loaded running back class of 2006.

After only one year, there isn't much depth behind Peterson and Lynch. But those are two of the most dynamic young runners in the game today, with the ability to carry a team on their back to victory. The Vikings and Bills overachieved in 2007, thanks primarily to their new featured tailbacks.

2006	Player, School	Team (Pick)
1st Round	Reggie Bush, USC Laurence Maroney, Minnesota DeAngelo Williams, Memphis Joseph Addai, LSU	Saints (2) Patriots (21) Panthers (27) Colts (30)
Top 100	LenDale White, USC Maurice Jones-Drew, UCLA Brian Calhoun, Wisconsin Jerious Norwood, Mississippi State Michael Robinson, Penn State	Titans (45) Jaguars (60) Lions (74) Falcons (79) 49ers (100)

As a rookie, Addai replaced Edgerrin James, wore Eric Dickerson's old No. 29 Colts jersey and earned a victory in Super Bowl XLI. In his second season, the all-around threat went to Hawaii following his second straight 1,000-yard season.

The high-profile USC thunder-and-lightning duo of Bush and White have had mixed results on and off the field since turning pro.

On the field, Bush was a three-way threat (running, receiving and returning) in the Saints improbable march to the NFC title game in 2006 but has not shown the skills of an NFL running back since entering the league. Bush has 312 career carries for 1,146 yards (3.7 ypc) and 10 touchdowns, while catching 161 career passes for 1,159 yards and four scores in two seasons.

White was nearly non-existent as a rookie (244 yards, 0 TD) but became a powerful go-to back in his second year with the Titans, rushing for 1,110 yards and seven touchdowns.

Off the field, Bush has had commercial endorsements and photo-ops with Kim Kardashian to enjoy while dealing with accusations that he received some $300,000 worth of improper benefits during his days at USC. Meanwhile, White (USC's all-time touchdown leader) has battled weight problems, even earning the nickname "LenWhale" in some circles.

2005	Player, School	Team (Pick)
1st Round	Ronnie Brown, Auburn Cedric Benson, Texas Cadillac Williams, Auburn	Dolphins (2) Bears (4) Bucs (5)
Top 100	J.J. Arrington, California Eric Shelton, Louisville Frank Gore, Miami Vernand Morency, Oklahoma State Ryan Moats, Louisiana Tech	Cardinals (44) Panthers (54) 49ers (65) Texans (73) Eagles (77)

Cadillac was the star pupil of coach Jon Gruden at the Senior Bowl before being drafted by the Bucs. The momentum carried over, as Williams won Offensive Rookie of the Year after getting off to one of the best starts in history over the first few games of his career. But Cadillac has seemingly been on blocks with nagging injuries since then.

Auburn teammate Brown turned in one of the best NFL Scouting Combine performances in recent memory, with a size-speed combination that made him the first back off the board. After some success splitting time with Ricky Williams in Miami, Brown had finally found his sea legs before a season-ending knee injury washed away a promising year.

The man once known as "Little Ricky" Williams has yet to produce for the Bears. After a tremendous amateur career at famed Midland Lee HS and the University of Texas, Benson appears to have lost the fire after achieving his NFL goals. Following a prolonged contract holdout and lucrative rookie deal, Benson split time with Thomas Brown before taking over in 2007. After finally getting his chance, Benson only gained 674 yards and four TDs.

The stars of this running back class were not at the top of the draft. Gore recovered from multiple knee injuries at Miami to finally fulfill his enormous potential. Gore ripped off 1,695 rushing yards, 485 receiving yards and nine total touchdowns in 2006, then produced another 1,500 total yard effort in 2007.

Not drafted in the Top 100, Minnesota's Marion Barber III (who shared the Golden Gophers' backfield with Laurence Maroney) was the No. 109 overall pick by the Cowboys. Since, Barber has become one of the hardest-hitting touchdown machines in the NFL.

2004	Player, School	Team (Pick)
1st Round	Steven Jackson, Oregon State Chris Perry, Michigan Kevin Jones, Virginia Tech	Rams (24) Bengals (26) Lions (30)
Top 100	Tatum Bell, Oklahoma State Julius Jones, Notre Dame Greg Jones, Florida State	Broncos (41) Cowboys (43) Jaguars (55)

Easily the weakest crop of tailbacks in the past five years. Action Jackson is the obvious standout, with three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons since his rookie year spent splitting time with Marshall Faulk.

Outside of Jackson, the three Joneses have been easy to keep up with. Kevin and Greg have been oft-injured and Julius has become an afterthought in his own backfield after several nationally televised big games early in his post-Notre Dame career.

2003	Player, School	Team (Pick)
1st Round	Willis McGahee, Miami Larry Johnson, Penn State	Bills (23) Chiefs (27)
Top 100	Musa Smith, Georgia Chris Brown, Colorado Justin Fargas, USC Artose Pinner, Kentucky	Ravens (77) Titans (93) Raiders (96) Lions (99)

One of the classic NFL Draft stories of all-time, agent Drew Rosenhaus and his client, McGahee, talked to each other on cell phones, convincing the world that they were fielding calls from interested teams.

Barely able to walk, McGahee was fresh off of one of the most gruesome knee injuries in televised sports history (at the Fiesta Bowl in the BCS national title game against Ohio State). Yet, somehow, Rosenhaus backed up his previous "What you talkin' bout?" guarantee to make Willis a first-round pick.

Johnson's draft story is not nearly as fascinating, but his career path is. Sitting behind the briefly unstoppable Priest Holmes, L.J. had only 665 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns over his first two seasons combined. But when given the opportunity to become the Chiefs' every-down back, Johnson responded with back-to-back 1,700-yard seasons, with 20 TDs in 2005 and 17 TDs in 2006.

Johnson was in relatively uncharted territory when he began to holdout for a new contract this past offseason. With less wear-and-tear on his body than most 27-year-old five-year veteran running backs, Johnson ended a 25-day holdout by signing a six-year, $45 million deal with roughly $19 million in guaranteed money.

Whether it was just coincidence or history in fact repeating itself, Johnson's run of dominance ended after he signed his new deal in training camp of 2007. A foot injury limited L.J. to 559 yards and three touchdowns in only eight games. With such an unusual track to stardom for a first-round pick, Johnson seemed to be playing by different rules. But no one is — until the owner's can work out a new Collective Bargaining Agreement that takes a realistic approach to the re-signing of running backs.

Keep checking AthlonSports.com for ongoing NFL Draft coverage:

Safeties Cornerbacks Linebackers Defensive Ends Defensive Tackles Offensive Linemen Tight Ends Wide Receivers Running Backs Quarterbacks 2008 NFL Mock Draft

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