Golden State’s win over the Celtics Friday night will no doubt occupy a place of honor on the team’s annual “highlights” film. That’s how it goes when you knock off the defending champions — and the rest of your season is in disarray. The Warriors are suffering from a crisis of leadership (will Nellie stay or go?) have a roster that’s in flux and are already practically mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

Forget that Boston was suffering from a colossal post-Christmas hangover, what with its holiday loss to the Lakers. Forget that Golden State followed the big victory with a 17-point defeat at the hands of the Lakers. When the videographers get down to business, beating the C’s will take center stage. What other choice will they have? Like five other teams in the Western Conference who have winning percentages of .333 or lower, the Warriors are short on big moments. Spud Webb short. Muggsy Bogues short. Vern Troyer short. Economists talk often about the growing disparity between the rich and poor in this country — although the recent Wall Street disaster has narrowed the margin somewhat — but NBAologists have a similar phenomenon to analyze this season: the yawning gap between contenders and the hopeless franchises wallowing with Golden State in the league’s Lottery mire.

Granted, things are worse for Western teams than for their Eastern counterparts, since 10-20 Indiana is a mere 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the conference. But even if the Pacers do stage a miraculous rally to finish 37-45 and sneak into the post-season, they will be nothing more than an appetizer for Boston or Cleveland and no closer to achieving status as a legitimate power than Jessica Simpson is to the Metropolitan Opera. That goes for the rest of the Eastern Eight, an octet of mediocre-to-awful teams all hoping to grab an invite to the April tournament, in the hopes that some momentum will develop from mere participation, and they will become next year’s Hawks, i.e. a solid team capable of winning a first-round series in the not-so-distant future.

It’s a noble aspiration, but three things stand in the path of all 14 bottom-feeders, making their path to respectability fraught with even more hopelessness than usual. The Hawks and even the Celtics stand as examples that miracles can happen, but NBA reality mandates that those bursts of basketball magic happen too rarely to allow for legitimate hope. Here’s why:

1. Late Takeoff: The Hawks have become one of the better teams in the East — finally. As people watch Atlanta develop the ability to win consistently, they forget how ugly things were for the franchise and for how long the hideous climate persisted. Year after year, draft after draft, Atlanta fell deeper and deeper into the NBA chasm. Execs around the league talked about how the accumulated high draft picks were doing nothing more than “learning how to lose together.” And with point guard Mike Bibby’s contract up after this season, it’s possible the Hawks might reach respectability before falling back into the morass. The lesson should be like a bracing splash of icy reality: Success is never guaranteed in the NBA, and any prosperity a franchise achieves is tenuous and often fleeting. Hooray for Atlanta, but civic leaders are advised to hold off on planning that parade route. As for Golden State and the others, the only parades they should be thinking about are of the Thanksgiving variety.

2. Generation X Factor: A quick scan of the prospects for next June’s Draft has GMs fearing a famine that might not abate for several years. Thanks to the recent migration of first-year players into the league, the college ranks have been thinned to the point that the only upperclassmen available are seriously flawed. Couple that with a below-average collection of freshmen, and you have little to no serious help available for those who need it. Early mock drafts have truly needy teams choosing from among players who will be career backups, if they get to have legitimate “careers.” Once you get past the 10th pick, it’s a bleak landscape. And if you’re in the 20s, it’s better to look at the WNBA for hope. The team that wins the lottery should be in good shape, since Oklahoma power forward Blake Griffin appears to be legitimate. After that, good luck.

3. Empty Shelves: The prevailing wisdom around the league is that the summer of 2010 will be like a Moroccan bazaar throughout the league, with deals on first-rate free agents to be had by anyone with a bloated checkbook and sufficient salary-cap strength. That may be true, since if every player who could declare himself open for bidding did so, NBA rosters would be redefined like Europe after World War I. But even if the LeBrons, Dwyanes, Caremelos, etc. are out there, precious few losing teams will be fortunate enough to land one of the big prizes. Sure, New York appears to be a cinch for LeBron’s services, since he does everything to demonstrate his love for the Big Apple but play his games in Knicks uniform. But can you see Dwyane Wade pledging fealty to Oklahoma City? And would Chris Bosh really leave Toronto for a chance at glory with Sacramento? Neither is too likely. The big boys and big cities will benefit from the free-agent bonanza, leaving teams like Minnesota and Memphis to hunt for scraps.

This is not to say the misery will be perpetual. The NBA wheel does turn, and losers become winners. But those of you hoping for quick turnarounds had better readjust your expectations. Those who wallow now will be awful for several years, though thanks to an 82-game schedule and ugly travel itineraries, there is always the chance of an upset win like Golden State’s over Boston. For two-plus hours, the Warriors were the best in basketball. For plenty of NBA teams, that will have to be enough for a while.

GAME OF THE WEEK
Cleveland at Miami, Tuesday, Dec. 30, 7:30 p.m. (NBA TV)

In a week not exactly filled with marquee matchups, this one stands out, for three reasons. First, the Cavs are away from home, where they have been invincible (16-0) and are therefore mildly vulnerable. Second, this is a chance to see whether the resurgent Heat has a chance to compete with the best of the East, or if it is merely tuning up to be first-round playoff fodder. Finally, it’s always enjoyable to see LeBron James and Dwyane Wade on the same court.

IN THE PAINT

The Lakers had to be thrilled to defeat the Celtics on Christmas, but let’s not assign too much significance to one late-December win. This did not gain revenge for the Finals loss. It didn’t establish L.A. as “the team to beat.” It can help the younger Lakers with their confidence against Boston, but a regular-season triumph in no way replicates a seven-game series.

Count me among those who believe it would be a bad idea for the Cavs to make a blockbuster trade. Their roster may be low on star power, beyond LBJ of course, but there is a great chemistry and devotion to defense in Cleveland that could well lead to another spot in the Finals.

When Danny Granger came into the league, many wondered how the 6-9 forward would fare. Through 30 games of this season, the answer is in: He’s spectacular. Granger is scoring from all over the place and deserves a spot on the East All-Star team, especially since he’s the brightest spot on a rotten Indiana team.

If you’re wondering why Mike Dunleavy is still coaching the Clippers, even though the team is awful, consider the lousy L.A. bench and young starting unit that includes second-year man Al Thornton and rookie Eric Gordon. It’s simply not his fault.

Everybody remains focused on the Celtics and Cavs in the East, but Orlando is climbing into the discussion as well, thanks to an 11-1 run against Western opposition. If the Magic can keep getting steady guard play, center Dwight Howard will keep terrorizing folks inside.

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