Bulls lean toward Rose in jumbled NBA Draft

Figuring out this NBA Draft stuff is pretty easy. With the first pick, Chicago selects Derrick Rose, point guard from Memphis.

See? Piece of cake.

With the second pick, well, let’s just wait for that one. As for the third, it all depends on the second. And so on.

What seemed like a pretty straightforward exercise about a week ago has morphed into a guessing game that could be controlled by the whims of the (gulp!) Minnesota Timberwolves, or whether Pat Riley really wants O.J. Mayo. For a while, the top of the draft seemed fairly well set. Rose to Chicago, Michael Beasley to the Heat, Mayo to the T-Wolves, Brook Lopez to Seattle, Kevin Love to Memphis and Danilo Gallinari to the Knicks. There would be intrigue beyond that, but it would be far less dramatic than in previous years, because once the top five or six picks are completed, there is a decided drop-off in marquee talent.

But then the rumors started, born out of teams’ finally seeing the candidates for themselves, in either “private” or “group” settings, and deciding that maybe there isn’t as much talent in this draft as everybody thought there would be back in March. At that point, nearly every single college freshman was a franchise player, and teams at the bottom of the Lottery were thinking they were guaranteed a standout. But the warts have emerged, and teams have come to the realization that the player they pick at 13 might just be as good — if not better — than what they get at five. So, the trade carousel spins.

It has become chic to blame any ill in the professional or collegiate game on the fact that players may spend one season on college campuses and then declare for the Draft. That’s a little drastic, but there is some truth to it. Trying to evaluate whether 6-8 Kevin Love is a worthy power forward candidate after watching him play just 35 games or so is proving to be more and more difficult, especially since as of late March, most people thought he was 6-10. Now, teams have to decide whether his “basketball IQ” overshadows his “lack of athleticism” and whether he’ll “be able to guard anybody” if he plays the four spot. Better to stick with picking the winning Powerball numbers. You have a better chance of being right.

And what about nearly every other big man in the Draft? Even Brook Lopez, who proved to be a fairly reliable low-post force at Stanford (provided he was able to turn to his left), is now being criticized for having insufficient (forgive me for this) upside. At least he is a little more polished than his brother, Robin, a solid defender and rebounder who may never develop the ability to score. Or maybe he could. Look for him anywhere from sixth to 26th in the Draft. At least it has been narrowed down.

As for DeAndre Jordan, Kosta Koufos, JaVale McGee and Marresse Speights, place your bets. Each could be a franchise player, and each could be a colossal bust. The best hope for a GM is that he has a long-term contract and the time to find out, because those on a short leash won’t want to take a chance with any of them. Jordan could be a star, if he gets motivated. Koufos’ offense makes him intriguing, but he may never guard anyone. And, given the great success of Greek players in the NBA over the years — i.e. not much — Koufos has history working against him. McGee has a 7-5 wingspan but averaged only about seven boards a game against WAC competition. And Speights is sushi-raw but has plenty of potential. Given that lineup, many GMs might prefer to take their chances with tomatoes these days, figuring they have the same chance of avoiding salmonella than a draft bust.

Then there is the curious case of Anthony Randolph. Two weeks ago, he was a top-10 pick, thanks to his great “length,” “skill level” and “athletic ability.” Now, he’s falling into (perhaps) the 20s, because teams have “seen him play.” And don’t even try to figure out who is a point guard and who isn’t. Everybody thinks Russell Westbrook can become one. They’re convinced Eric Gordon can’t. O.J. Mayo could be a 2/1, which means he’s not either a point or a two man, not the best thing in a league where an identity crisis rarely leads to a max contract. As for Jerryd Bayless, expect teams to be working him out right up until the minute David Stern convenes the Draft, because nobody can figure out what he is. Three weeks ago, he was a stone two guard, out for his own shot. Now, due to a grainy tape from his AAU days, on which he could be seen passing to a teammate, there is hope.

Or insanity. What seemed like such an easy exercise a couple weeks back has turned into a mess. And we haven’t even discussed the trade possibilities.

To recap: Rose to the Bulls. After that, draw straws.

IN THE PAINT

Say what you want about Shaquille O’Neal’s ridiculous rap freestyling last weekend and his shots at Kobe Bryant, but the most offensive part of the whole thing was when he said he was better than Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. That makes him look like the Big Idiot.

Detroit GM Joe Dumars is really serious about breaking up his nucleus, to the point where recent rumors have him including Tayshaun Prince in trade offers for Carmelo Anthony.

Here are a couple names to remember after the Lottery: Western Kentucky guard Courtney Lee, Rider forward/center Jason Thompson and French big man Alexis Ajinca.

It will be interesting to see what long-term effects certain players’ Olympic participation will have. Dwyane Wade will play for the U.S, even though he’s still rehabbing knee and shoulder injuries. Yao Ming will definitely be on the Chinese team, even if that means he breaks down again for Houston. And Kobe Bryant will have surgery after the Olympics on his torn pinkie ligament, giving him little time to prepare for training camp. Stay tuned.

Look for the Nets to be active on Draft day and beyond, as they continue to reshape their roster, and don’t expect T.J. Ford to be a Toronto Raptor next year. He’ll be traded to make room for Jose Calderon.

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