On a Sunday afternoon back in the spring of 1969, the Celtic dynasty was doomed. One way or another, it would not exist the following fall. Either Boston was going to win the seventh game of the Finals series in L.A. and send Bill Russell and Sam Jones out as winners, or the Celtics would lose and the Old Vets would have to settle for one less title.

The day’s outcome was supposed to hinge on the battle in the middle between Russell and Wilt Chamberlain. Or whether the old Celtics could handle the Lakers’ dynamic scoring duo of Jerry West and Elgin Baylor. Instead, the verdict was determined before the game, by of all things, balloons. Thousands of them were trapped in the rafters of The Forum, awaiting release following a Lakers’ win. Russell took one look at them and became incensed. In the locker room, he told his team (he was then player-coach) to run the Lakers into the ground. He and Jones were old? Bailey Howell and Satch Sanders were on their last legs? They would show ‘em.

Boston, of course, did show ‘em. The Celtics won, 108-106, blowing out to a huge lead and holding on for the final title of the Russell run (11 in 13 years). It was a triumph of winners over those perhaps more talented but certainly not more motivated. Although West was disgusted by owner Jack Kent Cooke’s decision to “hide” the balloons and finished with 42 points, his teammates didn’t have what was required to overcome the game’s ultimate winners.

Nearly 40 years later, the two teams meet, and their ’69 clash is instructive. No matter how much talent a team has, it must possess the overwhelming desire to win. That year, the Lakers lacked it, and they lost, despite holding a 2-0 advantage early in the series. This year, the Detroit Pistons, despite having a more balanced, playoff-experienced lineup than Boston, weren’t able to win the Eastern Conference title, thanks in large part to a desire deficit that showed itself many times throughout the six-game series. No more was the team’s inability to step up in key situations more evident than in the fourth quarter last Friday, when Detroit couldn’t hold a 10-point advantage. At home.

The Spurs, as defending champions couldn’t be accused of not wanting it enough. Win it four times in a decade, and you’re certainly not short on yearning. It was more a case of being short on points from Manu Ginobili, the heretofore reliable playoff producer.

So, the Lakers and Celtics find themselves in the NBA’s Dream Matchup. East Coast against West Coast. Royalty vs. Royalty. It’s everything a league could want. And we should all hope the teams deliver on the hype. (Boy, will there be plenty of that.) Ever since L.A. started making its power move in the Western Conference — with a large assist from the Memphis Grizzlies — the idea that the league’s most storied rivalry would decide it all has been fermenting. Now that it’s here, it’s time to break through the hysterical promotion of the matchup and analyze who will really win.

Backcourt: This isn’t even close, really. Kobe Bryant is playing the best basketball of anyone in the league right now, and the Celtics have no one who can match him. Sure, Ray Allen will be good for an eruption once or twice (maybe) during the series, but he is most likely going to be a supporting cast member. Bryant overshadows him completely, and I’ll absolutely take Derek Fisher over Rajon Rondo. Rondo isn’t a stiff, and his game is improving, but Fisher has three titles and applies a steady hand on the Laker steering wheel. In a seven-game Finals series, he’s the better choice at the point.

The Celtics can talk all they want about how they were able to control LeBron James in the Eastern semis, but James doesn’t have the ballhandling skills of Bryant, and he doesn’t have the experience Bryant does. Even though the teams on which the Laker guard won three championships truly belonged to Shaq, he does have the understanding of what it takes to win in June. James doesn’t have that. More important, if the Celtics commit to stopping Kobe with double and triple teams, he will set up his teammates, as he has done throughout the post-season. It is naïve to think Kobe has undergone a complete personality transformation, but there is no question he is playing more team-oriented, intelligent basketball. When you blend that with the game’s best physical skills, you have a difficult combination to overcome for any opponent. Advantage: Lakers.

Frontcourt: The Celtics get the edge here, because of Kevin Garnett. The question is: How big an advantage will they have? That depends on whether KG will assert himself as a constant offensive weapon, or whether he will defer to his teammates — sometimes to a fault. It is not selfish to exploit low-post mismatches. It is not selfish to shoot open 10-15 footers. And it is not selfish to demand the ball in crucial situations and then make the play. Those are the traits of winners, and KG won’t be one until he realizes it. Asking him to make such a substantive change on the eve of the biggest moment of his career may be asking too much. In the end, that could torpedo the Celts’ hopes.

Paul Pierce had a great series against the Pistons, and he could be the difference here. Lamar Odom cannot guard him one-on-one. No way. That means Bryant has to step in and deal with Pierce, leaving Odom to hang outside with Allen. That’s not a horrible mismatch, but it does take one of the Lakers’ best rebounders away from the basket. One of the most interesting plots of the series will be how the Lakers defend the Celtics. Don’t be surprised to see Luke Walton get a lot of time on Pierce, allowing Kobe to play on the perimeter. But expect Bryant to have plenty to do on the defensive end, starting with controlling Pierce.

Odom is the Lakers’ interior X factor, thanks to his versatility and ability to remain constant, despite pressure situations. The Celts’ inside variable is big man Kendrick Perkins, who has been strong this year as a rebounder and defender but who showed flashes of offensive potential against the Pistons. If he can score 10-12 a night, the Lakers are in trouble. Then there’s Pau Gasol, who must toughen up at both ends if the Lakers are to work toward a frontcourt standstill. Advantage: Celtics.

Bench: A Laker runaway. The four-man contingent of Walton, Ronny Turiaf, Sasha Vujacic and Jordan Farmar gives the team versatility, production and energy. The Celtics counter with defensive specialist James Posey, aging P.J. Brown, who is solid in spurts, Sam Cassell, who has lost playing time as the playoffs have progressed, and Leon Powe, who has potential but doesn’t deliver consistently. Advantage: Lakers.

Coaching: Another big Laker win. While Doc Rivers has squired the Celtics through a great regular season and has helped the team build momentum as the playoffs progressed, he has no championship rings. Phil Jackson has nine. ‘Nuff said. Advantage: Lakers.

Verdict: The Celtics’ Big Three is formidable — when Allen is producing — but the Lakers have too much depth, experience and coaching. And Kobe Bryant is playing some serious ball. L.A. in six.

GAME OF THE WEEK: Los Angeles at Boston, Thursday, June 5. Duh.

This is the game of the year. If the Lakers steal one in Massachusetts, they are positioned perfectly to roll to a championship. A Celtic victory, no matter how impressive, will be just holding serve. The most interesting thing will be whether the teams can provide action that comes close to justifying the largely unwarranted hype.

IN THE PAINT

The Pistons aren’t happy with their early exit, and it seems as if everything is in play in Motown. Flip Saunders was fired as coach Tuesday, and there is the possibility GM Joe Dumars could trade Rip Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace or Chauncey Billups. Billups will be tough to deal, because his contract has three years left, but ‘Sheed’s deal expires after next season, and the Pistons are tiring of his antics.

Doug Collins must really like either Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley, because he was adamant about not wanting to coach as recently as two weeks ago. He is a turnaround specialist, but players seem to tire of him more quickly than they do other bosses.

It’s funny to hear draft analysts speculating about what “point guards” will be chosen after Derrick Rose. Trouble is, O.J. Mayo, Jerryd Bayless and Eric Gordon are scorers, not point men. Teams that draft them will be disappointed and faced with long conversion challenges.

Del.icio.us | Digg it | Athlon Sports RSS Feeds