Fantasy Notes: Trends or Mirages?

Every once in a while you’ll look at a box score and scratch your head, trend or mirage? Tony Delk and Charles Smith have once scored 50 points in a game. That’s what we call a mirage. Jamal Crawford and Monta Ellis have enjoyed big performances recently, and those guys have stuck around as scorers. Let’s take a look at some of the big performances from Sunday, and decide whether they are trends or just a mirage.

CHRIS WILCOX, POWER FORWARD/CENTER, SONICS
SUNDAY:     28 POINTS. 10 REBOUNDS, 1 STEAL, 2 ASSISTS
AVERAGE:    13 POINTS, 7 REBOUNDS, 0.8 STEALS, 1.2 ASSISTS

Usually this late in the season, you like to see your big performances come from up-and-coming stars.  There certainly are plenty of those in Seattle with Kevin Durant and Jeff Green on the Sonics, however, Wilcox is a veteran in his 6th year of action. While these numbers are nearly twice as good as Wilcox’s season averages, they shouldn’t surprise you. Wilcox is a high-energy player. If he stays out of foul trouble, Wilcox is the type of player who could enjoy a big night. In fact, he has scored 20 or more points in four of the past 6 games. These performances are not for naught. Wilcox could develop into a Drew Gooden-type of player who will average 15 points and 9 rebounds in a career season. However, 28 points will be plenty more common for a scorer like Durant, than a hustle-player such as Wilcox. Considering he has center eligibility, Wilcox is likely starting in the majority of fantasy leagues.

CHARLIE VILLANUEVA, POWER FORWARD, BUCKS
SUNDAY: 25 POINTS, 8 REBOUNDS, 1 BLOCK, 1 THREE-POINTER
AVERAGE: 10.2 POINTS, 5.3 REBOUNDS, 0.4 BLOCKS, 0.6 THREE-POINTERS

This is not the first-time that Villanueva enjoyed a big scoring night. In fact, the former UConn player enjoyed 48 points in a contest his rookie season with Toronto, and scored 32 points with 11 rebounds two games ago. Villanueva is simply a sensational scorer who could average 18 points per game if given a chance to be the focal point of his team’s offense. The dilemma for him is that his teams continue to look for others to score, and they grow tiresome of his inconsistency. What we’re soon to find out, is whether consistent playing time will trigger consistent production. Villanueva wasn’t going to fit in Toronto because they already had Chris Bosh as their go-to guy. In Milwaukee, Michael Redd takes care of the perimeter play, while they hope Andrew Bogut and Yi Jianlian will take care of the post. The challenge will be for Villanueva to find a niche. It seems that with his recent trend of starting, right now is his latest audition. He should be a fine option immediately for fantasy managers looking for points and rebounds, plus three-pointers from the power forward position.

BENO UDRIH, POINT GUARD, KINGS
SUNDAY: 25 POINTS, 10 ASSISTS, 1 STEAL, 1 THREE-POINTER
AVERAGE: 12.7 POINTS, 4.3 ASSISTS, 1.0 STEAL, 1 THREE-POINTER

You better get used to big performances from this guy, because this is the exact reason why the Kings traded away Mike Bibby. Sure, Sunday is considered a big night for Udrih, as 25 points and 10 assists are a bit better than he’s expected to offer, but a solid 15 points and 6 assists should be expected from hereon out. Nonetheless, the recent string of big scoring performances has fantasy managers wondering what the ceiling is for the 25-year old talent. He has scored 23 or more points in 5 of the last 7 games. Udrih has a solid three-point shot, and is sensational at the free throw line. Something else to consider is that while the Kings have plenty of depth with John Salmons and Franciso Garcia coming off the bench, the team does not have a back-up point guard to spell Udrih. That explains why he played 6 more minutes than any of his teammates on Sunday, and has now played 40-plus minutes in three straight games. Due to the extensive rest he got when Bibby was starting in the middle of the season, I do not expect Udrih to hit a wall anytime soon, but it might be something to keep an eye out for as the season reaches it’s final month.

This late in the season, it is a good idea to rummage through the box scores looking for the next fantasy star.  Just like in baseball, many young players will get a look from their teams this late in the season, as they try to decide who will be factors for the 2008-2009 season. While Chris Wilcox may simply remain a role player, Charlie Villanueva and Beno Udrih are solid players to pick up, as they audition for a starring role.

Rob Shaw is the Lead Expert for FantasyFanatics.com, the premier fantasy sports community.

Del.icio.us | Digg it | Athlon Sports RSS Feeds