Who will prevail from the West's wild swap meet?

Although the NBA trade deadline is still three days away, and there might be some more movement among some coveted players (Ron Artest? Mike Miller? Andre Miller? Zach Randolph?), this has already been a pretty wild swap meet. Trying to remember another year that has featured so much high-profile player movement is like trying to preach defense in an All-Star huddle. It just doesn’t seem worth the effort.   

Any time you get Shaq, Pau Gasol and Jason Kidd in new uniforms, you have something. Toss in Mike Bibby and whatever deals might still get made, and you have a tremendous burst of movement that has made the race for the post-season more interesting than ever.

The Western Conference especially is intriguing, thanks to the additions of Gasol to the Lakers, the Big Cactus to Phoenix and Kidd in Big D. If San Antonio makes a move, expect the conference semis to be among the most exciting in league history – provided New Orleans doesn’t intrude, or Utah decides to reprise last year’s run to the Western finals. Not that either of them is comprised of chumps. Same for Golden State. It’s just that for pure star power, a Final Four that includes Kobe, Gasol, Shaq, Steve Nash, Amare Stoudamire, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki would be absolutely ridiculous. Add in Boston’s trio, LeBron and Detroit’s quartet, and you would have a 10-day stretch of hoops that might just make people fall in love with the NBA again.

Now, just because a team makes a trade doesn’t make it a guaranteed champion. In fact, Phoenix is taking a real chance by adding Shaq, and Dallas is hoping Kidd is closer to his Finals days than he is the end of the line. Because of that, it’s instructional to take a look at the four big trades that have been made so far and decide which best helps its team. Another blockbuster might ensue, but for now, here’s how the big deals shake out.

1. Gasol to L.A.: This one is pretty much a no-brainer, because it gives the Lakers what they have lacked ever since Shaq moved to Miami: A second scorer. Gasol is the perfect complement to Kobe, because while he has the skill to score 20 a night, he doesn’t demand the ball. In fact, while he was in Memphis, he was at times criticized for being too reticent. That’s a perfect fit in L.A., where Kobe needs the spotlight.

Gasol’s arrival gives the Lakers a great front line, at least once Andrew Bynum returns from his knee injury. He will also be able to step up production if Bryant’s cranky finger keeps him from scoring 30 a game. In October, the Lakers were in a shambles, and it was 50-50 whether Kobe would even be wearing the Forum Blue and Gold. Now, he’s happy, Gasol’s on board, and L.A. has gone from a likely first-round casualty to a contender. Don’t go printing up Finals tickets, largely because of the team’s troubles at the point, but don’t count this bunch out.

2. Bibby to the Hawks: This one doesn’t have the same sizzle as the others, because Bibby has lost much of his star power. But don’t minimize the trade’s impact. Last week, the Hawks fell to ninth in the Eastern hierarchy, in large part because of their shortcomings at the point. Adding Bibby to a nucleus that includes Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Josh Childress, Marvin Williams and Al Horford creates a team that should make the playoffs and could make trouble for its first-round opponent. Bibby’s contract expires after next season, giving the Hawks some flexibility in that regard. He’ll also allow rookie Acie Law to continue his development without pressure and could have the former Texas A&M star on target for a 2009-10 arrival.

Better still, the cost was excellent. Shelden Williams may have been a first-rounder, but he never turned into anything of substance inside. Tyronn Lue and Anthony Johnson aren’t top-flight point men, and we’re all still waiting for Lorenzen Wright to become a force.

3. (tie): Shaq to Phoenix/Kidd to Dallas: These two get equal billing because of the inherent risks.

Although the Phoenix training staff is trumpeting Shaq’s improved flexibility since his arrival in the desert (it must be the waters), he remains a player with limited stamina and dwindling skill. Worse, he will be asked to defend and rebound in Phoenix, two things he has not done in a dominant fashion during his time in the league. Shaq’s aversion to defense is legendary, and his career 11.5 rpg average is hardly what one would expect from someone who considers himself the fourth-best center in NBA history. (Now that’s a load of bull.) The Suns are betting that Shaq can handle their pace, trigger fastbreaks and provide heft inside during slower periods of playoff action. Maybe he can. If not, Phoenix will be stuck with a big problem for two more seasons – at $20 million per.

Kidd isn’t exactly cheap ($19.7 mil this year, $21.37 next), but he does have one fewer season remaining than does Shaq. He also is costing the Mavericks a fine young point man in Devin Harris and the Mavs’ second-best interior defender in DeSagana Diop. If Kidd doesn’t push Dallas over the top this year or next (remember that he’ll be 35 in March), the Mavs will have mortgaged part of their future for an insufficient return. There’s nothing wrong with trying to win now, but there’s no guarantee Kidd will mesh with Nowitzki and Josh Howard – not to mention Jason Terry.

In the end, the winner in all of the trades could be the team that doesn’t make one – San Antonio. When the defending champs get healthy, they’ll still have star power and the chemistry needed to win big. Should the Spurs triumph, it will be a victory for staying the course, rather than making the big splash.

GAME OF THE WEEK: Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix
Wednesday, February 20, 9 p.m.

Shaq may be two teams removed from his time in L.A., but this one still has great intrigue, because it could be a preview of the Western finals. Shaq is scheduled to make his debut in Phoenix orange in this one, and it will be interesting to see how he fits in. Meanwhile, the Lakers will forge ahead, despite Kobe’s torn ligament, hoping to build a contender over the next eight weeks while integrating Gasol and reintroducing Bynum. That enough for you?

IN THE PAINT:

So long, Seattle. At least that’s what it appears David Stern said over the weekend. The city and the Sonics haven’t worked out a favorable lease agreement or the arrangements for a new arena, so it would appear as if the team which debuted in the Pacific Northwest back in 1967 will become the first-ever full-time franchise in Oklahoma.

Hats off to Dwight Howard and Gerald Green for bringing creativity back to the Slam Dunk Contest. Howard’s “Superman” jam wasn’t really a dunk, but he gets big style points. Meanwhile, Green’s cupcake stunt was cute, but he would have been better served had he brought the treat down with him after stuffing the ball.

Look out for Houston in the post-All-Star fray. The Rockets closed quickly and have been getting great play from Yao Ming. If Tracy McGrady stays healthy, no team will want to see Houston in the playoffs.