Marcos Ambrose: A 5.5-place finish in the last four Sonoma races. (ASP, Inc.)

With the first half of this year’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Series winding down, one of two annual visits to a road course — right-hand turns, everybody! — presents itself this weekend as the tour heads to Sonoma Raceway, a track that has seen eight different winners in the last eight years.

Could the parity continue? Perhaps. There is one driver that you will read about below that, while being one of the strongest drivers at Sonoma over the last four years, has yet to visit victory lane. What might stand in that particular driver’s way is the fact that several past winners are consistently terrific at the 1.99-mile course.

5.5  Road course stalwart Marcos Ambrose has averaged a 5.5-place finish in the last four Sonoma races.

Unlike his utter dominance at Watkins Glen, he is less adept of a driver at Sonoma (but he is still really, really good). He hasn’t ever won — his best finish is third in 2009 — but he does rank second in track-specific PEER (5.100), which makes him one of two non-winners to rank inside the top 5 in driver production. Ambrose and his No. 9 team are in need of a strong finish; ranking 23rd in the point standings, they only have two top-10 finishes to show for their 2013 season.
 

Clint being Clint following his Sonoma race win last year. (ASP, Inc.)

5.500  Clint Bowyer, the 2012 race winner, tops the Cup Series in Sonoma PEER with a 5.500 rating.

Bowyer captured his first victory with Michael Waltrip Racing in this event last year, shocking many who didn’t associate him with road course racing. Those shocked clearly didn’t do their homework. Outside of the victory, Bowyer had three fourth-place finishes to his credit at Sonoma — all taking place in the CoT car — and an eighth-place run. The only thing new about his road course racing game displayed last year was the ability to dominate, which he did by leading 71 out of 112 total laps (63.4 percent).

4.667  Despite not winning there in the last six years, Jeff Gordon ranks third in PEER at Sonoma with a 4.667 rating.

Gordon’s 5.3-place average finish is the best in the Cup Series by about three whole positions. That level of consistency — a pinpoint 2.58 finish deviation, which is also the best in the series — is astonishing at a road course. Lest we forget, he is the same Gordon who won three consecutive Sonoma races and five overall in the Gen-4 era. Because he has been absent from the limelight, we tend to lose sight of the fact that he is one of the best road course racers in NASCAR history.

62.1%  Tony Stewart amassed a 62.1 percent passing efficiency (a pass differential of plus-23) in last year’s race, leading to a second-place finish.

That’s good news for Stewart who, after struggling with passing at the beginning of the season, has passed more than he has been passed in the five most recent races this season, earning a 53.55 percent efficiency. Stewart never won at Sonoma in the CoT era, but he is one of three drivers — Gordon and Bowyer are the others — to have earned at least five top-10 finishes at Sonoma in the last six years.

37.34%  After crashing out of the lead at Michigan, Kasey Kahne and his No. 5 team have a 37.34 percent Chase probability, which is the 13th-best mark in the Cup Series.

Don’t panic Kahne fans; all isn’t lost. Outside of that nice wild card cushion he created for himself with a win at Bristol, he can capitalize on several upcoming racetracks, which includes Sonoma, a track on which he won in 2009. He ranks seventh in Sonoma-specific PEER (2.833). While another win might be a long shot — his average finish at Sonoma is actually 22.0 — a quality outing could certainly be had.

139  Dating back to 2002 (a span of 11 races), Kurt Busch has led 139 laps at Sonoma.

That total is comprised mostly of three races — (he led 30 laps in 2002, 29 in 2006 and 76 in 2011) — which made up three of his top-5 finishes at the facility. He sealed the deal in 2011, winning behind the wheel of a Penske Racing car, but his most memorable performance came last season when he finished third in a Phoenix Racing entry that had a visibly broken rear end. Having finished in the top 15 four times in the last five races this season, he is within sniffing distance of becoming a regular frontrunner in Furniture Row Racing equipment. Might such a thing manifest itself on Sunday?

120  Canadian Sports Car racer Ron Fellows scored 120 points last year in three NASCAR Nationwide Series starts on road courses, which ranked as the second most in the series.

Fellows, 53, is no slouch on the road courses — he has six victories to his name in the Nationwide Series and the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series — but all three of those top-5 finishes last year came behind the wheel of a JR Motorsports entry. Piloting a car out of the independent Circle Sport stable, he might have his work cut out for him against a Cup Series field at Sonoma. Still, when it comes to making right-hand turns, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone with the experience and expertise of Fellows. Is that enough to carry the rocky No. 33 team to a stout finish?

For PEER and other metrics with which you may be unfamiliar, I refer you to my glossary of terms [16] on MotorsportsAnalytics.com [17].

David Smith is the founder of Motorsports Analytics LLC and the creator of NASCAR statistics for projections, analysis and scouting. Follow him on Twitter at @DavidSmithMA [18].

Greg Biffle in Michigan's Victory Lane. (ASP, Inc.)

Greg Biffle’s 19th career NASCAR Sprint Cup victory Sunday brought him into a tie on the all-time list with Dale Earnhardt Jr., the man most pundits claimed was supposed to win in the Irish Hills. It was like “Opposite Day” come to life, considering the two couldn’t be more different. Earnhardt, revered through his personality and last name, is the sport’s most popular driver. The whole grandstand shakes the second they see him in position to lead a lap.

Biffle? He’s a forgotten man. Despite winning titles in both the Nationwide and Truck series — putting him in an elite category of drivers who have done both — most NASCAR fans wouldn’t recognize him if they passed on the street. Even within his own team, a cloak of invisibility exists. Carl Edwards, who never met a camera he didn’t love, is the more charismatic driver at Roush Fenway Racing; Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is dating that GoDaddy girl. That leaves Biffle as the guy in your group who shows up at the bar every Friday night, watches the game at your table but you don’t remember a thing he said — just that he seems to know his stuff and he’s friends by association.

That’s not to say the man doesn’t try. The wry, sarcastic sense of humor is there, it’s just that good friend and longtime teammate Matt Kenseth does it better. The rare time Biffle utters a quote worth using it seems Tony Stewart or someone else goes off at the same time and his words get buried on page 3C.

But at age 43, maybe it’s time we appreciate some of what the Washington native has done in the Sprint Cup Series. He’s now won in nine of the last 11 years on the circuit, has made five of the last six Chases and finished top 5 in points three times in his career. There’s not many drivers who can say that.

Is it a Hall of Fame resume? No. But for a guy who’s a likely lifer with Ford after showcasing a decade of loyalty, there’s no better person to bring home the Blue Oval’s 1,000th NASCAR victory, of which Biffle is responsible for 55.

Good luck getting people to realize it, though. Here’s what else we learned Sunday as we go “Through the Gears” …

FIRST GEAR: Hendrick’s horror story
Turns out the oft-referenced horseshoe stuck up Jimmie Johnson’s … well, you know what … fell out sometime before the green flag at Michigan. Maybe it was replaced by kryptonite? The four-car Hendrick Motorsports fleet, hoping to be led by Johnson and Earnhardt Jr.’s Superman-themed No. 88, was the class of the field. But to finish first, you must first finish … and none of them were able to do that effectively.

Jeff Gordon was first to fall, a victim of a lap 7 crash where Bobby Labonte spun in front of him. Then, Kasey Kahne, running a spirited race to win for fallen friend Jason Leffler, blew a tire while running up front. His day ended in a ball of flames on Lap 104. That left Earnhardt seemingly in control, positioned to win his first race since this same event a year ago. But his engine erupted shortly before the 300-mile mark, leaving him sitting 37th in the garage.

Three down, one to go; Johnson was left with a car that might have been the fastest of the four. The problem, surprisingly, was the inability of crew chief Chad Knaus to call proper strategy. Taking four tires when others took two, then putting an extra can of fuel in while others did not found the No. 48 buried in 11th when the race went green for a final 27-lap run to checkers. It took all Johnson could muster to fight up to second, but the aggression took its toll; a flat tire and contact with the wall — not necessarily in that order — with three laps to go left him limping to the pits and a lap down in 28th.

That’s right, four Hendrick cars, zero drivers on the lead lap. It was the first time since Sonoma in 2005 that the entire fleet ran outside the top 25 at race’s end. Will it hamper HMS over the long-term? Yes and no. Johnson, who still has a 31-point advantage in the championship standings should have won each of the last three weeks. He’ll be fine. Kahne, now pushed back into “wild card” territory still has a Bristol victory and is a top-5 car on every intermediate the circuit runs. His Chase position, along with an additional win or two this summer, is a near certainty.

For Gordon and Earnhardt, the picture is less clear. The former is winless this year, sits 19 points outside the top 10 and has seemingly suffered through more bad luck in one season than Johnson has in an entire career. History says he’ll win one before Richmond, as always, to secure a spot — but you never know.

As for NASCAR’s Most Infamous Enigma, Michigan marked just the third time all year that the No. 88 has been out front, which is encouraging. But challenges in the form of Sonoma and Kentucky await. Add in a potential Daytona “Big One,” and suddenly this team, sitting 30 points inside the Chase cutoff, is scrapping with about 14 others for one of the final three playoff spots via points. That’s not a chance they want to take, because Junior hasn’t won a race away from Michigan since Richmond in April 2006.

SECOND GEAR: And it’s Ford for the steal!
With Hendrick down for the count and Toyota down on power — its big guns failed to lead a lap for the second straight week — the Michigan race was there for the taking. And Ford was more than happy to step in. Aside from winner Biffle, Joey Logano led 21 laps and ran a solid ninth, his fourth straight top-10 result. Polesitter Carl Edwards was one position better, and would have been higher if not for an ill-timed yellow while pit stops were under way that trapped him deep in the field.

It was a big moment for the Fusions, still a step behind and needing to take advantage of situations like Sunday’s to stay in the game. Now with Biffle holding a victory, it’s almost certain he and Edwards will be in the postseason field.

Surprisingly enough, while you’d think Penske Racing would be in better position, the momentum within that camp is tilting towards Roush Fenway. There’s no guarantee Logano or even reigning champ Brad Keselowski, who ran out of gas and came home a frustrating 12th, will even make the postseason. Keselowski, who was in the news last week for comments made about why Penske and RFR are struggling to work together, has to cut the chitchat, which got Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing infuriated over claims they’ve stolen employees. Instead, he must use his newfound street cred to continue the push to share information — the teams met extensively last week — because they’re going to need it.
 

Denny Hamlin's Jason Leffler-inspired paint scheme. (ASP, Inc.)

THIRD GEAR: Love for Leffler
Tributes were all over Sunday for the former full-time Cup and Nationwide driver, killed at age 37 during a midweek sprint car wreck at Bridgeport Speedway in New Jersey. From decals on cars to a moment of silence, Jason Leffler was on the forefront of everyone’s hearts and minds at Michigan. Perhaps the most poignant moment came from Kahne, whose mid-race misfortune was irrelevant within seconds of being interviewed on pit road.

“It’s been a tough week for a lot of people,” Kahne said. “Jason Leffler was a good buddy of mine and it’s neat to see how the racing world, the fans and his friends and everybody has supported him for the last four or five days. That showed the person and the racer that he was. I’m just glad I could say he was one of my good friends.”

Unfortunately, those closest to the open-wheel ace weren’t able to cash in on Victory Lane. Tony Stewart put up a reasonable effort, running fifth, while Joe Gibbs Racing’s No. 11 team struggled all day. Despite changing its paint scheme to the 2005 edition — the one Leffler ran before being released from the team — the 11 was off the pace from the drop of the green, eventually finishing 30th, one lap down.

For those interested in donating to help Leffler’s son, Charlie Dean, a trust fund has been set up. Funds can be sent to:

Charlie Dean Leffler Discretionary Trust
c/o SunTrust Bank
232 Williamson Road
Mooresville, NC 28117

FOURTH GEAR: Under the radar performances that could have an impact
With attrition taking its toll at Michigan, its tricky repave causing a number of spinouts and tire failures, some surprising names wound up sneaking in with good finishes. Richard Childress Racing’s Jeff Burton scored a 10th, his fourth straight run in the top dozen as the organization continues to get its act together. He’s a man to watch in the next few weeks, as Daytona and Loudon are in his wheelhouse. Just 27 points out of 10th in the standings, a Chase spot isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility.

Running behind Burton, in 11th, was teammate Austin Dillon, whose Cup starts to this point have been an unmitigated disaster. It was crucial to get this career-best run on the resume in preparation for a full-time Cup effort in 2014. But perhaps the biggest shocker came in 13th, where a — dare I say it? — under-covered Danica Patrick had one of her steadiest performances of the season. Improving with every green-flag run, the No. 10 car had the most speed during its final run at a crucial time for the rookie to gain momentum. Sonoma may present its challenges this weekend, but then the series goes to a track she’s run in IndyCar (Kentucky) before revisiting her February triumphs down in Daytona.

OVERDRIVE
Kurt Busch, when did you start forgetting how to close the deal? A front row spot was squandered when the No. 78 car spun on its own early at Michigan. Busch has had three front row starting spots and over 125 laps led in the last seven races, yet has just one top-5 finish to show for it. … Paul Menard has led just four laps all season and has yet to finish better than eighth but would be in the Chase if the season ended right now. Lucky break, or clear sign NASCAR lets too many drivers into its playoff format? … Bobby Labonte may have taken the next step towards losing his ride Sunday. While he spun out on the seventh lap in a one-race deal with Phoenix Racing, AJ Allmendinger stepped into his full-time car, the No. 47 of JTG-Daugherty, and ran 19th. That ties the best run for the bunch at an unrestricted track all season, made even more impressive considering the ‘Dinger hasn’t worked with them. Could a permanent switch be coming soon?

by Tom Bowles
Follow Tom on Twitter: @NASCARBowles [34]
 

Greg Biffle celebrates his win in the Quicken Loans 400 at Michigan International Speedway. (ASP, Inc.)

At no point in the last decade has winning a Sprint Cup Series race at the Michigan International Speedway been of more importance in the NASCAR ranks. A renewed emphasis on “manufacturer” over “car number” or “driver” — largely at the behest of Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota, the Cup Series’ three auto makes — has placed a premium on home field bragging rights near America’s automotive capital.

On Sunday, Greg Biffle planted Ford’s flag in its home turf, winning the Quicken Loans 400 in Michigan, giving team owner Jack Roush his 13th career Cup win at MIS, the most all-time for any one organization.

Biffle held off a field of hungry Chevrolets, led late in the event by Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick, to capture his second straight and fourth career Michigan win. It was also Ford Motor Company’s 1,000th win across NASCAR’s Cup, Nationwide and Camping World Truck series.

"I was really worried about the 48 (Johnson)," Biffle said. "He was really fast. But when this thing could get in clean air, it was all over.

“We’ve still got a little bit of work to do with these cars back in traffic but once we get out front, like at Pocono last week, we think we’re pretty good. We just need to work on our cars a little bit. It’s not for lack of effort. This is real exciting for me.”

Forty-seven of Biffle’s race-high 48 laps led came with under 50 circuits to go in the 200-mile affair. Biffle’s No. 16, along with teammate Carl Edwards’ No. 99, occupied the top two spots with 34 laps to go and green flag pit stops on tap. Edwards hit pit road first, going one lap down prior to the field cycling through, while Biffle stopped two laps later. As Biffle’s crew completed service, Jamie McMurray blew out a right front tire, bring out the day’s eighth and final caution.

Edwards found himself trapped in 24th, while Biffle — having completed his stops without yet dropping a lap to the field — inherited the lead.

His main competition — aside from the pole-sitter Edwards — came in the form of Johnson, who led 18 laps throughout the day, but was regulated to 11th on what would be the final restart, a result of having the No. 48 crew top off the fuel tank on the final stop.

When the green flag waved with 27 laps remaining, Biffle quickly pulled away in clean air while Johnson began what appeared to be an unrelenting assault through the field. Within eight laps, the five-time champion was ensconced in third; nine laps later he occupied the runner-up slot.

However, Biffle held a stout 1.6-second lead at a track that places importance on track position — clean air allowing the leader to sprint away with an aerodynamic advantage. And with three circuits remaining, Johnson made the mistake that sealed his fate and Biffle’s win, brushing the wall in an effort to run down the leader. He was forced to pit road with heavy right-side damage.

Biffle coasted from there, easily outdistancing Harvick for a nearly three-second victory. Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart rounded out the top 5. Contenders Edwards and Johnson finished eighth and 28th, respectively.

“I hate missing an opportunity,” Johnson said. “I want those (Chase) bonus points for winning races and feel like one got away from us today.”

Hendrick Motorsports once again seemed to be the organization to beat, as drivers Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kasey Kahne led for a total of 66 laps. However, Kahne blew a right front tire while out front on lap 105, slamming the Turn 2 wall and ending his day. He finished 38th. Earnhardt was his typical strong Michigan self until the engine in his No. 88 let go while running second on lap 132.

“We had such an awesome race car,” said Earnhardt, who finished 37th. “We actually improved the car on the last stop and I thought we were going to be able to give Jimmie a run. He probably was the best car out there.

“It’s frustrating. … I’m just real happy that we were able to turn around from what was a frustrating day (in practice) yesterday to put a great car on the starting grid, a car that was so competitive as it was today.”

Meanwhile, runner-up Harvick is quietly climbing his way through the point standings, having ascended from 12th to fourth in the last five races on the strength of five consecutive top 10s, including a victory in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

“I was pretty nervous as we finished practice yesterday,” Harvick said. “Those guys just did a great job again of talking through everything with myself and themselves to make some good decisions this morning — and they always do — and that's what makes this team good is they keep themselves in contention to be solid on days when you don't think you're going to be that great.”

With 11 races remaining in the Cup Series’ 26-race regular season, Johnson holds a 31-point advantage over Edwards, Clint Bowyer (-49), Harvick (-62) and Matt Kenseth (-82) in the championship standings.
 

Jason Leffler (ASP, Inc.)

1. Reflecting on Jason Leffler, forever a hard charger
News of Jason Leffler’s death after a New Jersey sprint car crash ran fast, far and wide this week. His passing is, as it too often becomes, a startling reminder that race car drivers don’t compete in an arena like most other athletes.

Racing isn’t just entertainment. It’s a way of life — an often difficult one — for those who pursue it. For every NASCAR national series driver traveling by jet and racing in front of tens of thousands, there are hundreds of others hopefully scraping enough dollars together for new tires every few races or working through the night to make repairs from the last time out.

They do it for the thrill of a well-executed pass, or to feel the joy of victory lane one more time. They do it for the speed, for the rush and for the adventure that’s forever locked inside the walled confines of a racetrack only available to those who work hard enough to enter. It’s an event of open participation, but an experience only a select few ever try.

I didn’t know Jason Leffler, and I never interviewed him. I won’t pretend to know what motivated him to slide in a race car for the first time so long ago, or know what he was seeking from racing Wednesday night at Bridgeport Speedway in an event that paid $7,000 to win. I just know that Jason Leffler was a race car driver in the purest sense with a style both brash and unbounded.

He pushed limits and occasionally stepped over them. He was unflinchingly aggressive when a gap opened — often to a fault — and was more than willing to seek retribution against a driver who had done him wrong. If Jason Leffler was in a race, you more than likely knew it regardless if he was first or 25th.

It all combined to produce in Leffler the status and goal every racer wishes to achieve: Winner.

Leffler didn’t win as often as he liked — no driver ever does — but he was a four-time champion in the USAC ranks in midget and silver crown cars. He started the Indianapolis 500 and he did score trips to victory lane in both the Nationwide Series and NASCAR’s truck series.

It was after his second and final Nationwide Series race win in 2007 at the former Indianapolis Raceway Park that perhaps told us all we need to know about why Leffler spent the majority of his life scrambling across the country to jump behind a steering wheel. Leffler, who had just beat Greg Biffle and David Reutimann using his standard strong-nosed tactics, went through the usual gratuitous crew and sponsor acknowledgements in the post-race interview before he paused, looked directly to the ESPN interviewer and shouted.

“I’m happy!”

Jason Leffler loved his life of racing. And he especially loved the winning. It’s terribly unfortunate and greatly saddening that he lost his life in that continued pursuit. But it’s also comforting knowing that Leffler — at least occasionally — had found what he was chasing.

2. Anniversary brings talk of Dale Earnhardt Jr.
You may have read Dale Earnhardt Jr. won at Michigan International Speedway last June. You may have heard that Sunday’s race is the one-year anniversary of Earnhardt’s last win. You may have also heard that the confluence of that event with Earnhardt’s great run at Pocono Raceway last week have made him a good pick for Sunday’s race.

While picking a race winner is often a trivial pursuit (unless you’re picking Jimmie Johnson every week), there are a lot of signs that Earnhardt should have a good car Sunday in Michigan.

Consider that Earnhardt had a top-10 finish at Auto Club Speedway earlier this season. Consider that he’s typically been strong on the tracks similar to Michigan this year. And consider that Earnhardt feels his car is measuring closer to the performance of the No. 48.

“I looked through the notes from last year, and we didn’t unload perfect. We had to work to get it right,” Earnhardt said. “You don’t go in with confidence that you are going to go there and it will be perfect. You have the confidence to know that we will get it dialed in.”

A win last year is certainly no guarantee of success for Earnhardt. But to come back to a track as a defending race winner riding the wave of confidence from recent good runs is a great start to a solid weekend.

3. Ride swaps on tap for Allmendinger, Labonte
Bobby Labonte has become an afterthought in the Sprint Cup Series in recent seasons. After filling the seat vacated by Marcos Ambrose in the JTG-Daughtery No. 47 in 2011, Labonte has just four top 10s to his name. None of those have come in 2013 for the 2000 series champion, and the team apparently is losing some patience with the direction to this point.

As a result, AJ Allmendinger was hired to drive the No. 47 Sunday at Michigan in an attempt to perhaps find some solutions to speed and handling issues in the Gen-6 car. Sunday’s event is the first of five races Allmendinger will drive for the team over the course of the season.

Meanwhile, Labonte will preserve his 702-race consecutive starts streak by jumping in the ever-rotating seat of James Finch’s No. 51.

While it’s not certain that this driver switch for the No. 47 officially opens the NASCAR silly season of driver and team changes, it’s not often that one driver takes over another driver’s ride for performance reasons — even if temporarily — without some larger adjustment down the road.
 

Mark Martin, seconds before impacting the pit road wall. (ASP, Inc.)

4. Return to the scene of Martin’s scary accident
Seeing as it’s been played in several commercials, television promos and in other places, you probably haven’t forgotten Mark Martin’s impossibly scary wreck in the August race last year at Michigan.

Martin was battling for the lead when he was swept up in a spin involving the lapped cars of Labonte and Juan Pablo Montoya exiting Turn 4. He slid down the track and on to pit road where the car looped in such a manner that Martin slid directly into an opening that allows cars to enter and exit the track from the garage area. Martin’s No. 55 then caught the end of the pit wall — narrowly missing scrambling crew members and others — with the wall impaling Martin’s car in the driver’s side.

The concrete wall (roughly two or three feet tall and six inches wide) broke right through the car’s sheet metal and roll cage and entered the cockpit less than a foot behind Martin’s seat. The consequences of Martin hitting that wall just a few inches more forward on the car are impossibly scary to think about.

In the three races I’ve attended so far in 2013, I’ve looked to see if tracks have made adjustments (or had previously constructed a different design) to prevent cars from hitting the pit wall in a similar fashion ever again. As of February, Daytona had still had an exposed end of a pit wall in at least one garage area opening, while Kansas Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway had placed concrete barriers perpendicular to the dangerous wall end.

Let’s hope Michigan has studied the incident and reacted appropriately.

5. Kahne, Kenseth look for positive result
For several races, it seemed like Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth had a magnetic draw pulling them together to compete for race wins. Kenseth’s victories at both Las Vegas and Kansas came after holding off valiant late-race charges from Kahne.

Now, both are reeling are consecutive weeks of poor finishes. Kenseth, of course, blew his engine while racing at the front in Dover two weeks ago, and then suffered handling issues and a spin at Pocono relegating the No. 20 to 25th.

Kahne crashed two weeks ago at Dover and then suffered a mechanical issue on the first lap of the Pocono race to field consecutive finishes of 23rd and 36th.

For as strong as each have been in the season’s first 14 races, it’s hard to imagine Kenseth and Kahne are sixth and eighth, respectively, in points despite combining for four wins and 13 total top 5s.

by Geoffrey Miller
Follow Geoffrey on Twitter: @GeoffreyMiller [48]
 

Jimmie Johnson was virtually untouchable in Pocono. (ASP, Inc.)

A five-time champion in their respective sport is rarely in need of motivation. So when you hand it to them on a silver platter, whatever the reason, you better hide yourself inside a bunker and hope for the best. After Dover’s fluky finish a week ago, where a restart penalty all but took a win away from Jimmie Johnson, something inside the 37-year-old snapped. Struggling to hold his tongue on several occasions, it was clear “Mr. Politically Correct” felt NASCAR made the wrong call, robbing him of what would be a record-setting Dover performance.

For a regular season race — sometimes used as test sessions for the No. 48 team — it’s been a long time since I’ve seen them enter the following Sunday so focused. Johnson, typically unflappable, was angry, even borderline insulted over it all. And we see what happens when star athletes get mad. Just ask LeBron James, Michael Jordan or even Joe Namath.

The Dover penalty, no matter what side you’re on, made Johnson “want it” more than anyone else at Pocono. And when a driver of that talent level gets prodded to the point they feel a statement must be made, what you get is the type of dominating snoozer Pocono turned out to be. It may not have been pretty — and at times, borderline unwatchable — but that kind of “whip the field” mentality is what’s made this guy the best NASCAR driver of the last decade … maybe more. Superstars are called that for a reason, and it’s not because they push their sport towards record ratings. That’s unfortunate for stock car racing, which has suffered under the Johnson era but you can’t suspend raw talent. You can only hope to contain it.

After seeing Sunday’s race, I doubt it will be contained anytime soon, especially after chief rivals seemed to stumble all over themselves. Their rough road ahead is what brings us “Through the Gears” after Pocono …

FIRST GEAR: Toyota’s loss is Jimmie Johnson’s gain
It’s easy to wax poetic about Johnson’s dominating performance, his first victory at Pocono since 2004. But to a point, that was expected considering the team’s level of anger, track position at a repaved facility (he started on the pole) and the momentum his No. 48 team has built over the past few months. Consistency-wise, they’re the best in the sport right now — no one else is remotely close.

Perhaps the bigger piece of news for Chevy’s top dog is how the top finishers shook out behind him. For the first time all season, not a single Toyota driver found his way inside the top 5 at race’s end. Mid-week changes at Toyota Racing Development to dial the engines back after a series of reliability problems turned the cars from Superman to Clark Kent. Denny Hamlin, the prototypical favorite at this track, failed to lead a lap, finished a quiet eighth and explained how suddenly, his Camry’s engine appeared to be hindered by kryptonite.

“By no means did we have a winning car this weekend,” he said. “I think all of us had to play defense on the straightaway, which is really tough.”

Add in Matt Kenseth’s rough day, slumping to 25th from fourth after contact with Juan Pablo Montoya, and a so-so sixth for Kyle Busch and Joe Gibbs Racing as a whole had an average finish of 13.0 with “Toyota engine, Version II.” That’s crucial for Johnson, whose lone obstacle, it seemed, entering the postseason was whether the durability of these rival motors would hold up. If the Toyotas have to dial it back that much, just to make each race the distance, they’re threatening to gift wrap the 2013 trophy for Johnson and hand it to him at Phoenix, the penultimate race — because he’ll still be able to skip Homestead and still win No. 6.

SECOND GEAR: Tough times for the Gen-6
Clearly, Pocono Raceway is not at fault for Johnson stomping the field. When a driver has a car that good, there’s only so much you can do to make the races exciting. To the Tricky Triangle’s credit, the crowd looked fairly full as track president Brandon Igdalsky continues to come up with great ways to maximize fan experience both inside and outside the track.

But no amount of free concerts, celebrity poker tournaments or cheap tickets can hide how awful NASCAR’s product was on Sunday. Behind Johnson, most of the field kept running in place while even a series of late restarts struggled to live up to their typical excitement. Several drivers appeared on cruise control, running in place, while side-by-side competition was nowhere to be found. It’s a puzzling development, especially at a triangular-shaped facility whose shortened distance last June provided one of the season’s best races and finishes.

When you end up with that type of flat, across-the-board product so soon after, it’s hard to point guilt anywhere other than NASCAR’s Gen-6. Fontana, at this point, seems a distant memory as the same type of aerodynamic issues are plaguing this new generation of car. High speeds, while good for the record books, have posed a problem when it comes to aggressive competition; drivers are chasing the racetrack, so much it makes running two-abreast too big of a risk to take. Add in the conservatism of making the Chase, with such a close battle for those positions (see point four below) and the final equation leaves what you’re watching seem like a conservative, single-file parade.

Is there a fix? One thought would be to slow the cars down; that, in turn, cuts down on the aero push and gives drivers more freedom to maneuver around the track. What made Fontana so great was its multiple grooves, giving drivers control over where to plant the car. Since then, I’ve heard the term “one-groove” track too many times to my liking. If drivers don’t feel they can control a car in a second groove (and under this point system) they’re not going to go there unless forced to — on those crazy restarts.

How you get those multiple grooves back in play? I’m not certain of the answer. But the right people should be racking their brains, because the optimism — and hype — this new car generated is threatening to fade.
 

Is Earnhardt's season taking a turn? (ASP, Inc.)

THIRD GEAR: Earnhardt hits his stride at the right time
For Dale Earnhardt Jr., this spring has been the season of discontent. His confidence eroding a bit as the No. 88 stayed out of the top-5 finishers for eight straight weeks. Meanwhile, shopmate Johnson ran circles around the competition while fellow Hendrick driver Kasey Kahne continues to threaten for wins. It seemed like Junior was vastly underperforming by comparison.

So maybe Pocono becomes the race that turns it all around. Never one of his best tracks, Earnhardt started sixth, slid inside the top 5 early and kept that track position the entire day. While no match for Johnson on the late restarts, a third-place result was his best since Fontana in March and gives him a 46-point cushion over 11th place in points. With Michigan on the horizon this weekend — where Earnhardt is the defending champ — the boost couldn’t have come at a better time.

“We are all right,” he said after exiting his car Sunday. “We know what we need to do. Confidence is there … all the fans can rest assured we feel like we are on the right track.”

I wouldn’t go that far yet, but breathing room is important for Junior right now. It gives him a chance to mess up at Sonoma, even get caught up in a wreck at Daytona and still be OK without the pressure of having to win to make the Chase.

FOURTH GEAR: A logjam of parity
Greg Biffle’s second-place finish, his first top 5 since Texas, for Roush Fenway Racing brought him up to 10th in points. But he wasn’t the only one on the Chase bubble who put together a solid Pocono performance. Kurt Busch (seventh), Joey Logano (10th) and even Jeff Gordon (12th) pulled themselves closer to the top 10 while struggles by Brad Keselowski (16th), Kasey Kahne (36th) and Paul Menard (30th), whose late-race tire failure proved costly, kept them dropping back.

This reverse accordion effect has resulted in opening up the Chase to nearly two dozen drivers. Right now, with 12 races remaining in the regular season, the spread between ninth-place Keselowski and 21st-place Jeff Burton is just 42 points. Anyone between there could wind up safely inside the top 10 after Michigan. That’s a blessing for drivers like Busch, Logano and Gordon, whose bad luck in other years would leave them in near desperation mode. Just a few solid runs in succession will put them in a position where a victory isn’t necessary to make the championship field.

OVERDRIVE
Is Stewart-Haas Racing on the upswing again? Two cars ran in the top 5 Sunday, including Tony Stewart who now has that type of back-to-back result for the first time since June 2012. … While Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has been a very consistent rookie, he remains without a top-10 finish through 14 races. Add in Danica Patrick’s single top-10 showing and the 2013 freshman class seems several notches below average. … Bobby Labonte’s “replacement” at JTG-Daugherty Racing appears to be the beginning of the end for the 49-year-old there. All public statements say differently, but clearly “sub” AJ Allmendinger is getting an audition to prove himself. What are they gonna do if he gets a top-10 finish — which would be their first since October 2012 — throw him out of the car?

by Tom Bowles
Follow Tom on Twitter: @NASCARBowles [34]
 

Denny Hamlin (ASP, Inc.)

1. Denny Hamlin needs Pocono more than ever
A crash last Sunday at Dover International Speedway after a flat tire dented Denny Hamlin's hope of a strong run and probably didn't feel the best for a guy just weeks removed from a pretty serious back injury. Hamlin, however, seems to be worried about one thing: Making the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

One of — make that two of — the best things Hamlin his in his uphill climb to the redemption of entry into NASCAR's playoff system is a pair of visits to Pocono Raceway. You may remember that Hamlin won his first Cup race at Pocono in 2006 even after he cut a tire and crashed one-fourth of the way in. Since, he has four wins and sits just two behind Pocono active wins leader Jeff Gordon.

"We were certainly disappointed with the way Dover ended for us, and now it’s up to our FedEx team to dig down and capitalize on some of our better tracks coming up," Hamlin said.

Hamlin's continuing climb starts this week from 26th in Sprint Cup points, some 224 points behind the leader Jimmie Johnson. To get to 20th and become eligible for one of two at-large bids, Hamlin needs to make up 74 points on Ryan Newman (currently 20th) between Sunday and Richmond in September. And he’ll need, at the very least, one win.

A victory this weekend — and season sweep of Pocono, if he's really feeling greedy — would be immensely helpful.

2. Drivers appreciate Pocono's shift work
Plenty of scenes in Days of Thunder feature an oddity that Sprint Cup drivers never use: shifting mid-corner or mid-straightaway as a device to find more speed while already racing at normal pace. It won't be exactly how Cole Trickle does it in the movie this weekend at Pocono, but drivers will get to at least act like they are during each green flag lap.

Pocono's odd three-corner layout demands slow speeds in two corners that lay ahead of two extremely fast straightaways. The contrast bogs a car's engine in a low RPM range if just one gear for an entire lap is being used, which in turn depletes peak acceleration. Since the track opened in 1971, most drivers shifted between third and fourth gears to maximize performance until a new gear rule unexpectedly made that impossible in 2005. The gear rule changed again in 2011 and brought shifting back.

"It’s a fun race track and with the shifting it’s a really tough racetrack. It’s almost like a road course, it’s really tough on the cars and it’s a mentally challenging racetrack," said Carl Edwards.

"It's like a three-cornered, left handed road course, making it a lot of fun to drive," said Paul Menard.
 

Kasey Kahne (ASP, Inc.)

3. Kahne hoping confidence in Francis keys Pocono rebound
Kasey Kahne just made a mistake last weekend.

In the closing laps at Dover, Kahne got loose entering Turn 1 with what was probably a top-5 car. The car snapped around, slid sideways and then backed into the wall just enough to inflict damage requiring some extensive pit road repairs. He's trying to rebound at Pocono, a place where he once crashed briefly in the bushes lining the backstretch — and was pretty introspective before this weekend about his relationship with longtime crew chief Kenny Francis.

“We've had some things thrown at us over the years, and we've just always stuck together," Kahne said. “He's given me more opportunities to win in the situations we've been in than anybody else ever would have. I just have a lot of respect for Kenny Francis. There is no one else I want to work with, and I think he feels the same way right now. That is where we are at. We both feel that we have a team surrounding us that is capable of doing a lot this season.”

'Doing a lot' would also include a strong performance for Kahne at Pocono, a track typically not within his wheelhouse as far as finishes go. Kahne did win there in 2008, but he has just six top-10 finishes in 18 career starts. He finished runner-up in last July's rain-shortened race to break a spell of five finishes averaging 23rd.

4. Secret of Pocono success can be found in the tunnel
It's a corner sandwiched between straightaways of 3,055 feet and 1,780 feet. With a radius of just 750 feet, it's an element of Pocono that pales in comparison to the grand scale of the 2.5-mile behemoth. Its design hails from a place with just a bit more history: the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

It's Pocono's Turn 2, or more affectionately known as the "Tunnel Turn" thanks to its proximity above the tunnel allowing infield vehicle access at the track. And it's the corner that can make or break a lap around Pocono.

Scratch that, it's a corner that 160 times in Sunday's race could royally screw up the best of runs just by setting a wheel a little bit off line.

"Finding the edge and the limits is a little bit tougher on such a big racetrack with three unique corners," said Jeff Gordon. "The tunnel turn has always been one of the most hair-raising experiences on our schedule. It takes full commitment. When you hit it right, it's a beautiful thing."

5. Only Joey Logano plans to play doubles this weekend
Kyle Busch — rightly or wrongly — has generated some scorn thanks to the whippings he's applied lately to the fields of drivers in the Nationwide and Camping World Truck series. He's won seemingly every race every week in the lower divisions. That's obviously not the whole truth, but his dominance has been domineering.

It has reignited the debate about why NASCAR allows the “major league” drivers to still compete in the lower levels. That battle should cool off this weekend, however, as Busch plans to just use one driving suit for the Sunday event. He won't travel to the first Nationwide standalone event of the year at Iowa Speedway or to the second for the Truck Series at Texas Motor Speedway on Friday night.

In fact, just one driver among the Pocono Cup ranks will play role of helmet-carrying jet setter this weekend. Joey Logano will scoot over to Iowa for Saturday's race following Sprint Cup practice on Saturday morning, and then return for Sunday's race.

“It’s going to be tough for sure, but we have a plan that will help me get as much rest as possible," Logano said. "I’ll get a chance to rest and debrief and change on the plane rides between Pocono and Iowa each night."

Meanwhile, Busch is hoping for the story topic to settle down for a bit — or at least until his next week of double or triple duty.

"Only 1 (race this weekend) so everyone can stay sane for a week. #Chill," Busch tweeted to a fan earlier this week.

by Geoffrey Miller
Follow Geoffrey on Twitter: @GeoffreyMiller [48]
 

Kevin Harvick earned his second win of 2013 in the Coca-Cola 600. (ASP, Inc.)

Fourteen leaders. 68 lead changes. A three-wide battle coming off a restart that decides the race. Read those two lines and you’re probably thinking, “typical NASCAR race at Talladega.”

Nope. Instead, those stats defined what could be the best Indianapolis 500 in a generation. As we look back at the Coca-Cola 600, it’s important to stop and recognize open-wheel’s glory day because the event was everything NASCAR was not. There was a sentimental winner, Tony Kanaan, whose post-race celebration from teams and crews became reminiscent of Dale Earnhardt’s Daytona 500 “monkey off his back” victory of 1998. There was passing paired with a sense of urgency — and not just on Lap 190 of 200 — but throughout the entire event. Cautions were scarce, resulting in the fastest average speed in history, yet they weren’t needed to define and/or add excitement to the race. Oh, and should I mention a car even crashed on pit road and IndyCar kept the race under green?

Let’s compare that with Sunday night’s Charlotte event, one that will forever be defined by a piece of nylon rope. That snapped camera cable, from a FOX setup overhead, injured 10 fans, stopped the race and damaged three cars, including top contender Kyle Busch. Of the race’s 11 cautions, six were debris related and a few were positioned well by hot dog wrappers to bunch up the field in order to heighten the race’s entertainment. In a race 100 miles longer than Indy’s 500, there were just 11 leaders, 24 lead changes and three drivers (Busch, Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth) led 338 of 400 laps.

Does that mean Indy was perfect? Far from it; the race ended under yellow, drafting made it impossible for a strong car to pull away and there’s still too much homogeneity between teams. NASCAR had strong moments, including a surprise winner of its own in Kevin Harvick. But while the ratings likely won’t show it, in terms of pure competition, Sunday was the first time I can remember where IndyCar, head-to-head with the racing rival that unseated it from “top dog” inside the U.S., turned around, wound up and punched stock cars back, smack in the face in a bid to regain supremacy.

That won’t do much … yet. But at some point, that’s going to resonate with viewers and NASCAR would do well to pay attention. Turnarounds start with little victories like these.

Back to Charlotte…

FIRST GEAR: Kevin Harvick stole himself a Chase bid
He’s led 33 laps all season, good enough for just 17th on the Sprint Cup charts. Among those drivers listed ahead of him: Juan Pablo Montoya, Mark Martin and Greg Biffle. But what none of those drivers have is a Cup win, let alone two. Harvick pulled another rabbit out of his hat on Sunday, the “Closer” playing it perfectly by taking two tires on the final caution while the leader, Kahne, stayed on track.

“It came down to a restart,” Harvick said bluntly, slotting in second after the stop and knowing clean air was all that was needed. “In the end, it was good enough to win the race.”

It’s also likely good enough to make the Chase. Now seventh in points, the No. 29 Richard Childress Racing team likely doesn’t have the speed to stay inside the top 10 long-term — not with Busch, Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski among those sitting behind them. Over the course of the 26-race regular season, though, those two victories will be more than enough to snag a “wild card” position and put the pressure on Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart and those who we know need the victories. It’s possible that those on the outside of the top 10 will have to come up with three wins to sneak into the postseason, which is not an easy feat with 14 races left.

As for Harvick’s unexpected victory? He survived; the epitome of what this race is all about. While problems befell the favorites, from the Busch brothers to Matt Kenseth to even a weakened Jimmie Johnson, the No. 29 car was put in position to win. As veteran Jeff Burton has slyly pointed out, that’s all you need. Sometimes, circumstances dictate the rest.

SECOND GEAR: The rope snap heard around the world
Until Sunday night, most people thought CamCAT was some sort of military DefCon mission or secret weapon you’d acquire in Call of Duty. Instead, it will forever stand for the camera whose ropes came toppling onto the track at Charlotte Motor Speedway, snapping into pieces on Lap 121 in an incident that sent three fans to the hospital, injured 10 and turned Kyle Busch’s front end, among others, into a mangled mess.

The technology, around since 2000, was being utilized by FOX for just the second time in NASCAR, following a successful Daytona 500 debut. One reason for its scarceness is the setup. It takes five days, including two cranes mounted on different sides of the track in Turns 1 and 4.

Three ropes make the camera tick, allowing it to slide above the track and deliver the type of breathtaking views fans love. But when one of those ropes broke, chaos broke loose and the snapping of the cable could have easily killed someone as debris kicked up everywhere. For the second time, NASCAR got lucky through a freak accident (see: February’s Nationwide race in Daytona) and was able to throw a red flag, clean up the mess and get fans treated (all have been released). It’s also to NASCAR’s credit that teams were allowed to fix cars torn apart by the cable. It’s one thing when a random event happens, like a hot dog wrapper or an overcooked engine that changes the course of a driver’s race. But when a TV crew broadcasting the event is involved in affecting the outcome through an equipment failure I think trying to reconstruct the race the way it was is perfectly reasonable.

Certainly, there’s some inconsistency within that, as Robby Gordon has lost a race in the past (Watkins Glen, early 2000s) through a TV malfunction. However, in this case NASCAR made the right call. And FOX is doing the right thing by suspending the camera going forward. The best thing to do here is chalk it up to “one of those freak things” and move on.

THIRD GEAR: Mark Martin’s rocky road
It’s been a long time since we’ve worried about the competitiveness of Mark Martin. But since late April, the now 54-year-old has done some things that make you scratch your head. At Richmond, he was involved in a heated incident with Kahne in which it looked like the veteran initiated contact. At Charlotte, it was another surprising mistake, as one of the sport’s cleanest drivers stuck his nose in the wrong place at wrong time, sparking a wreck that took out Chase contenders Jeff Gordon and Aric Almirola while hampering the nights of several others.

Suddenly, Martin’s year doesn’t look so rosy, with just one top-5 finish (third, Daytona) and zero laps led since February at Phoenix. A “lame duck” at Michael Waltrip Racing, you wonder if the impending departure will now begin to take its toll. After all, since leaving Roush, his sophomore campaigns at other teams, from DEI to Hendrick Motorsports, have always resulted in a downturn in performance. The big difference? None of them involved these types of uncharacteristic mistakes on the racetrack. Could this year finally be the one where Martin decides to call it quits?
 

Kasey Kahne had the preferred line, but Harvick had fresher tires and a propensity for restarts. (ASP, Inc.)

FOURTH GEAR: Don’t be fooled by bad luck blues
The sport’s biggest contenders in Sunday night’s race all got knocked out by problems not of their making. Kyle Busch, who led 65 laps, had another engine expire. Kenseth was involved in someone else’s mess. Kurt Busch had a battery fail while leading. And Kahne was caught by circumstances, a sitting duck once the final caution of the night came out. Perhaps the best car all weekend, Kahne was forced to settle for second in a no-win scenario: had he pitted for tires, like the rest of those up front, the No. 5 car would have likely come out 10th as others would have stayed out.

However, a look at the big picture shows that these four, believe it or not, are the biggest threats to Johnson’s sixth title as we speak. Kyle Busch, should his team correct the mechanical problems that dog him, has led 805 laps already and has the best average start (6.2) in the series, important for the Chase where track position racing is paramount. Kenseth, who has led a series-high 893 laps, has been the only one besides Johnson to be strong at every single track on the circuit, from the shorts to 2.5-mile superspeedways. Kurt Busch, as surprising as it seems, could be a “wild card” should he find some way to sneak into the postseason through winning races. After a third-place finish Sunday — one that could easily have been two better without a battery failure — he’s shown strength and potential consistency on the types of tracks that would make him a dark horse during a 10-race playoff.

But perhaps the most important name on the list is Kahne. Take away two wrecks (Daytona and Talladega) and he would quietly be in the points lead instead of Johnson. The No. 5 car has been battling with Kenseth for “best of the intermediates,” with three runner-up showings (Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte). That’s a title you want to have with a postseason that includes five such 1.5-milers.

OVERDRIVE
Kudos to AJ Allmendinger, who was seventh in his Indy 500 debut driving for Roger Penske. Only a faulty seat belt which forced an unscheduled stop prevented one of the cooler feel-good victories in recent memory. It looks increasingly clear NASCAR is losing this one to the “other side.” … No drivers did the double this season and Brian France remains uninterested in jumpstarting talks to make that Indy 500/Coke 600 feat repeat itself again. Why do both series insist on shooting themselves in the foot? Publicity from that type of thing only helps the entry lists, national visibility and ratings for all sides. … Dale Earnhardt Jr., whose engine blew Sunday night, has slid outside the top 5 in points. June is an important month for him, with the one-year anniversary of his last win at Michigan slotted in between potential weaknesses at Pocono and Sonoma. Could the No. 88 team be on the bubble for the Chase once more?

by Tom Bowles
Follow Tom on Twitter: @NASCARBowles [34]
 

The 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup [61] circuit runs the longest race of the year Sunday night in the Coca-Cola 600. To help guide you through the 2013 Fantasy NASCAR season, Athlon Sports contributor Geoffrey Miller will be offering his best predictions for each race. And because Yahoo's Fantasy Auto Racing [62] game is arguably the most popular, he’ll break down the picks according to its NASCAR driver classes — A-List, B-List, C-List.

All-Star victor Jimmie Johnson. (ASP, Inc.)

Jimmie Johnson stirred up the masses with his second straight Sprint All-Star Race win on Saturday. Johnson, historically dominant at Charlotte Motor Speedway, a track that was once referred to as “his house” when his car and the facility shared primary sponsor branding, now looms large as the driver to beat in this weekend’s Coca-Cola 600. At least that’s the narrative, as I understand it.

The truth is, the All-Star Race and the 600 don’t correlate. As we learned in this space last week, in 13 tries dating back to 2000, the winner of the All-Star Race has gone on to 600 glory just three times. One of those three was Johnson in 2003, but it shouldn’t have any bearing for two reasons.

First, the short-burst speeds that excelled last weekend won’t help in this Sunday’s 400-lap motorized marathon. The two races are practically different disciplines for drivers and teams.

Second, Johnson isn’t the Johnson of old. If Charlotte is his house, then quite a few squatters have thrown house parties unbeknownst to him. The difference from the old Johnson at Charlotte and the Johnson now is a matter of pavement.

Charlotte was repaved in 2006 after a botched diamond-grating job in 2005. A repaved track usually means that old setup and strategy notes are thrown out, because the tricks that used to work now do not. That is why Johnson is no longer the clear-cut class of the field. His average finish helps tell the story.

6.67  Johnson and the No. 48 team averaged a 6.67-place finish in nine races prior to the 2006 repaving project.

Five of those nine races resulted in victory for Johnson, who led 22 percent of the 3,882 total laps in that time frame. There was very little doubt as to who the car to beat was in the pre-repave era at CMS.

That quickly changed.

16.92  In the 12 races since the repave, Johnson and team have averaged a finish of 16.92.

Johnson does have a win to his credit (Oct. 2009) in the “new era” of Charlotte, but his sheer dominance is a distant memory. The No. 48 bunch has finished third or better in five of those 12 races, but the eclectic nature of his results — his 13.97 finish deviation in these races suggests his finishes ranged from good to bad to middle of the road — means he is no longer the consistent win threat he once was.

A few other drivers have made waves recently at Charlotte, including one driving alongside Johnson under the Hendrick Motorsports banner.
 

Kasey Kahne and crew chief Kenny Francis, defending Coca-Cola 600 winners. (ASP, Inc.)

5.250  Kasey Kahne ranks first in Charlotte-specific PEER among 57 Cup Series drivers with a 5.250 rating.
Last year’s Coca-Cola 600 race winner was the king of CMS in the CoT era, winning twice and finishing eighth or better on seven occasions. Considering he led just over seven percent of the laps in the last 10 races, he might be the most inconspicuous top producer among all drivers and tracks.

Unlike Kahne, the driver who ranks second in PEER — a measure of performance in all-equal equipment — didn’t win at Charlotte the last five years, but his showings were filled with tremendous gusto.

20.6%  Kyle Busch has led 722 laps, or 20.6 percent of total laps, at Charlotte in the last 10 races there.

That none of these dominant outings have translated into a win is sort of a joke, but these races at Charlotte are long, providing plenty of room for parity in varying strategies. Busch’s modus operandi is to get out front and stay there, a strategy that a team is hard-pressed to execute successfully in a daunting 600-mile race.

17.22  Clint Bowyer averaged a 17.22 finish, with a best finish of sixth, in the nine Charlotte races leading up to his win there during the Chase last fall.

There must be some mighty fine magic in Brian Pattie’s fuel-saving elixir. Bowyer’s win in the fall wasn’t a surprise in the broad sense — he and the No. 15 team finished second in last year’s standings — but in the Charlotte-specific sense, it was, because Bowyer had a rough go of it through the majority of the CoT era. Assuming his crew chief’s innovative strategies don’t work this Sunday, Bowyer could be in for a lengthy, mind-numbing battle for track position.

0.300  Tony Stewart ranks 37th in Cup Series PEER at Charlotte.

Stewart’s bad year is likely to get worse, because his production rating at Charlotte ranks below those of Scott Riggs (0.833), Elliott Sadler (0.583) and Landon Cassill (0.450). His best finish in the last 10 Charlotte races is eighth, which conveniently came during his thunderous Chase run in 2011. His efforts there haven’t been crash-ridden — he has actually led 165 laps across five races in that span and hasn’t finished lower than 25th — just mediocre compared to his past results on other racetracks.

4 hours  Three of the last four Coca-Cola 600s, in which all of the scheduled 400 laps were completed, went past the four-hour mark.

If you’re watching from home, get comfortable. This is an endurance contest invented because the good folks at CMS wanted to trump Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Memorial Day weekend in the worst of ways. (What’s one way to make a race seem bigger than the Indianapolis 500? Call it the World 600, which was this event’s original name.)

While I’m not suggesting the race will be a boring one, keep in mind that teams tend to outlast the daylight and conserve equipment for the majority of the race. It isn’t a race that lends itself to aggression.

For PEER and other metrics with which you may be unfamiliar, I refer you to my glossary of terms [16] on MotorsportsAnalytics.com [17].

David Smith is the founder of Motorsports Analytics LLC [17] and the creator of NASCAR statistics for projections, analysis and scouting. Follow him on Twitter: @DavidSmithMA [18].

Jimmie Johnson wins the All-Star Race. Again. (ASP, Inc.)

Say what you want about Jimmie Johnson. Critics have a long list of rebuttals for why he’s not the greatest driver of this era: Chad Knaus, superior equipment and more money through sponsor Lowe’s than his closest rivals. But it’s hard to argue the stats on paper. Johnson’s fourth win in the All-Star Race, a NASCAR record, launched him past teammate Jeff Gordon and the late Dale Earnhardt Sr.

With five Cup championships, 62 wins and another decade or so to add to that total, it’s time to give the man his due. Yes, he may be paired forever with a political correctness label that leaves him scorned by much of the fan base. Surely, Knaus and owner Rick Hendrick’s “New York Yankees” model of having the best of the best in all positions helps immensely. But someone still has to drive the car. Johnson had to hold off a hungry Kasey Kahne, side-by-side and initially charge forward from a starting spot of 20th place. That was no easy feat, a goal that could only be reached by a select few.

This All-Star Race was another reminder that, like it or not, Johnson is clearly in the “Greatest Driver of His Era” category. A decade from now, when all is said and done in his career, Saturday night will surely not be the only record he’ll leave behind.

Other gears to shift through after NASCAR’s greatest exhibition include…

FIRST GEAR: The All-Star Race Needs a retool
The All-Star Race has long been billed as one where sparks fly, rivalries ignite and drivers let it all hang out. So what have we gotten these last nine years during the Chase era? A total of one pass for the lead within the last five laps. There have been few, if any, incidents of close racing let alone contact between drivers that would spark fan interest. On Saturday night, Johnson needed two laps to fully dispose of Kahne before cruising to the checkers, part of a 90-lapper that had only one major incident (Mark Martin being spun out by Ricky Stenhouse Jr.). Not exactly the type of marketing the sport needs for an exhibition race, right?

Clearly it’s not all the driver’s faults. Charlotte has struggled as a racetrack since a 2005 “levigation” experiment gone awry, producing asphalt that’s left Goodyear in a pickle. In the first race run after the process, a 500-miler was nearly stopped as tires blew every 15-20 laps; in response, the tire company has acted more scared there than a five-year-old without a nightlight in his room. The rubber they produce, every time out, has been far too conservative, forcing the drivers to race the same, as little falloff (creating similar lap times) combined with high speeds make passing difficult at best.

With that in mind, Saturday night still felt like a missed opportunity from a garage that’s not too happy with each other right now. From Kasey Kahne-Kyle Busch to Denny Hamlin-Joey Logano, the list of drivers who feel they “owe” somebody for some past on-track issue is lengthy; Don King could have a field day with a Friday Night Boxing Special on HBO. So with a chance to take a “free shot,” all these drivers did … was nothing. Absolutely nothing but ride around, make laps and watch as the prohibitive favorite (Johnson) entering the event took control and pulled away. It was anticlimactic, paired with a staggering amount of empty seats and with a format based on best average finish for the final segment that left fans referring to an abacus. Add in a graphical mistake by SPEED that made it look like NASCAR was manipulating the rules for “Five-Time,” and the whole show took on the feel of a debacle.

Clearly, major changes for this race need to happen, and they need to happen now. Stick ‘n’ ball sports are struggling with All-Star formats too, but no one seems to need to go back to the drawing board more than NASCAR.

SECOND GEAR: Kurt Busch proving his worth
Furniture Row Racing, as a single-car team, has just one victory in its near-decade of NASCAR competition. Expect that to change soon. Kurt Busch is on a tear, winning the pole for the All-Star Race (as well as the pole at Darlington the week prior) and winning two of the first four segments of the race. Only a slow pit stop kept the No. 78 from Victory Lane, as Busch lost track position for the final 10 laps and was forced to settle for fifth.

In the past, that incident would cause the once-tempestuous driver to explode. Make no mistake, Busch has had his in-race moments in 2013, but Saturday night was another example of Busch keeping those mood swings in check. Yes, he let his frustration be known over the in-car radio, but the fury was nowhere near on par with past outbursts, and there certainly was no throwing the crew under the bus — instead, he was roundly complimentary.

No doubt, that belies a level of confidence the driver feels with this program, more heavily linked with Richard Childress Racing than ever before, as the big man himself considers potentially placing the driver in a top-tier ride in the RCR camp come 2014.

Still in the top 20 in points, Charlotte’s 600-miler presents one of several opportunities for this team to steal a win in the coming weeks (Michigan, Sonoma and Daytona are others that come to mind). With a “win or wreck” mentality, Busch is likely to run around 20th in points, which means he’s the biggest roadblock for Denny Hamlin should this team break out and reach Victory Lane multiple times.

The “wild card” race is about to ramp up.

THIRD GEAR: Ford’s failure
Brad Keselowski, blowing a transmission on the second lap, said it all for a Ford contingent that’s looking a step behind. Despite adding two cars to its roster this offseason through Penske Racing, Fords have only won twice this season in 11 starts (plus a 12th opportunity in the All-Star Race). For every feel-good story (Carl Edwards’ return to prominence, David Ragan’s Talladega miracle, Aric Almirola’s top-10 surge) there’s been a long list of tough ones. Greg Biffle has been maddeningly inconsistent, hitting the wall at Charlotte Saturday night and once again being a non-factor. Ditto Joey Logano, although his charg to a strong second behind Johnson in the closing laps of the All-Star Race was admirable. Marcos Ambrose was once again invisible and will need to rely on road course expertise to make the Chase.

With Hendrick and Gibbs clicking on all cylinders for Chevrolet and Toyota, respectively, there’s not one top team you can rely on across the board at Ford right now. They really need to take the two weeks while at home in Charlotte to study their notes, retool and get it together for NASCAR’s grueling summer stretch.
 

Danica Patrick road the fan vote to a 20th-place showing. (ASP, Inc.)

FOURTH GEAR: Pretty and popular doesn’t equal all-star
NASCAR’s two Most Popular Drivers — at least on paper — were non-factors Saturday night. Danica Patrick, the Fan Vote winner, was ninth in the sport’s preliminary race before using that support to sneak into the main event. But she ran 20th, the last car on the lead lap, finishing behind even under-funded David Ragan, Talladega’s surprise winner.

It wasn’t much better for Earnhardt, whose Hendrick Motorsports teammates sat on the front row for the final segment while the No. 88 languished at the back half of the top 10. Running seventh, he’s now led just once, for a single lap, in the last 10 races in what’s hardly described as an All-Star performance.

No doubt, these two names get the sport maximum publicity when running well. But it’s hard to put them on TV or celebrate their accomplishments no matter how hard NASCAR tries when they can’t find the speed to keep up.

by Tom Bowles
Follow Tom on Twitter: @NASCARBowles [34]