Pennell’s Picks: Fantasy NASCAR Trends at Richmond
Jay Pennell looks at favorites and darkhorses for Saturday's Federated Auto Parts 400
By: Matt Taliaferro | 9/6/12, 10:58 AM EDT
(Photo by ASP, Inc.)
After 25 races, the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup season will roll into Richmond International Raceway for the final event before the 12-driver Chase field is set. While the top 10 is essentially a lock, the race for the wild card positions is all about wins, with eight drivers still eligible for the two spots.
Although the points will reset for the Chase drivers after the checkered flag falls on Saturday night, the fantasy NASCAR season will roll on. What you will need to pay close attention to is what each driver in Saturday night's field has at stake.
With a host of differing agendas, many look at this race as a “no-holds-barred,” anything-goes contest. There is a ton of risk for those trying grab the two wild card spots, yet no risk at all for many others.
While Kasey Kahne leads the wild card contenders with two victories, the drivers to watch Saturday night are Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon. The two with the most on the line this weekend, both have stellar records at Richmond and will be doing all they can to put their cars in Victory Lane.
For Busch, there could be no better track than the .75-mile Richmond International Raceway. His lone win this season came here in April, he has the best average finish among active drivers (4.7), and has four wins in the last seven races — winning every other race dating back to May 2009.
However, this season has been anything but ordinary for Busch and his Dave Rogers-led team. Inconsistency, poor luck, wrecks and engine failures have led to his most difficult campaign since his sophomore season in 2007. Given the struggles, Busch says he feels “OK” about his chances of making the Chase, but knows there are no guarantees going into Saturday night’s race.
“I’m not saying I’m for sure going to be in at all,” he admits. “Anything can happen. Jeff is no slouch at Richmond, either. He will be fine. I feel like he’s the guy we’re racing — the 24 car. We’ll just have to see how it all plays out. Jeff could give us a run for our money.”
Truer words have never been spoken by young Busch. If he wants to make the Chase he must beat a four-time series champion in Gordon to do so.
Since the summer stretch kicked off, Gordon and his Alan Gustafson-led team have been in contention to win nearly every week. In the 11 races since Michigan in June, Gordon has scored one win, five top 5s and eight top 10s, with a 21st-place finish at Watkins Glen due to a late-race spin in oil. In the last five races alone, Gordon has one win, a second and a third.
However, for one of NASCAR’s most decorated drivers, those numbers have not been enough to secure a Chase bid. He knows in order to celebrate his 20th season in the Cup Series with a shot at title No. 5, he has to win on Saturday night.
Taking a different approach than Busch, Gordon’s attention will be on his race — not the competitions’.
“Our focus won’t be on what ‘this team’ is doing or what ‘this driver’ is doing,” he says. “We’re just going to focus on our own program like we always do. We’ll focus on tuning the car, communicating and working the setup the best we possibly can to try to have the fastest racecar. I’m not going into the race thinking that we’ve got to finish 12 positions ahead of Kyle. I’m thinking we have to win.”
Unless Busch and Gordon suffer the poor luck that has put them in this situation in the first place, both should run and finish up front, capable of solid fantasy points.
That said, Busch’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Denny Hamlin, heads to Richmond fresh off consecutive wins, giving him four on the season. Carrying momentum, confidence and the support of the hometown crowd behind him, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota will be hard to beat.
In 13 Cup starts at Richmond, Hamlin has only one finish outside the top 20, three finishes outside the top 10, six finishes of third or better and two wins. With 12 bonus points on his side heading into the Chase, the Virginia native has the opportunity to score another three bonus points with a win Saturday night. For fantasy players, Hamlin is about as sure of a bet as you will find in the field.
For the past few weeks, Carl Edwards has been our fantasy darkhorse pick. Nearly every week he has lived up to that title — while carrying the risk associated with a darkhorse — mixing strong runs with, ultimately, poor finishes.
Down and out after an engine failure ended his Atlanta race (and Chase hopes) early, Edwards struggled to come to terms with his situation after nearly winning the title last season. When the series last raced in Richmond, though, Edwards had the strongest car in the field. Leading 206 of the 400 laps, he was hit with a late-race penalty for beating the leader to the line on a restart and was penalized, forced to swallow a bitter 10th-place finish.
Feeling as if NASCAR stole a win out from under them, Edwards and his No. 99 team are heading to RIR looking for redemption, a little luck and a win. While he has yet to win at Richmond, the Roush Fenway Racing driver has three top 5s and five top 10s in his last five starts. The series runner-up in 2011 is likely to miss the Chase this season, but expect him to go out swinging, scoring strong fantasy points for your team.
Five Favorites: Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Ryan Newman. (Photo by ASP, Inc.)
As the majority of focus will be on the wild card battle (as Danica Patrick is not entered), one driver that can fly under the radar and score his second win of the season is Michael Waltrip Racing’s Clint Bowyer.
A former Richmond winner, Bowyer has the third-best average finish (10.2) and MWR has been on a roll of late. While teammate Martin Truex Jr. has been making the most noise in the past few weeks, some of Bowyer’s best tracks begin with Richmond this weekend.
Much like Bowyer, Stewart-Haas Racing’s Ryan Newman could sneak up and have a strong run Saturday night. Also a former winner at Richmond, Newman has the sixth-best average finish (11.8) among active drivers. However, over the past few weeks Newman has dealt with off-track contractual issues, has been caught up in two wrecks in two weeks and fallen from one of the top wild card contenders to 17th in the standings.
While a win would go a long way for Newman’s Chase hopes, he has not been on the competitive level of Busch and Gordon. If he can avoid trouble, expect Newman to have a strong night for your fantasy squad.
With two wins this season, Kahne is nearly a lock for this year’s Chase. As the rest of the field will be fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot, expect Kahne and his Kenny Francis-led team to do all they can to protect theirs. Solid fantasy points are certainly obtainable here, but the M.O. of the evening may not be to risk it all for a win.
Five Undervalued Picks: Clint Bowyer, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne, Juan Pablo Montoya, Mark Martin
Once a former champion, Bobby Labonte has not made much noise on the NASCAR circuit in quite some time. With only one top 10 this season, the driver of the No. 47 JTG-Daugherty Toyota has moved to a mid-pack racer for the most part.
However, Labonte and crew chief Brian Burns have posted finishes of 14th (Bristol) and 19th (Atlanta) the last two weeks. Also, Labonte has finished 20th and 17th in his last two starts at Richmond.
Like Gordon, Labonte is celebrating his 20th season in the Sprint Cup Series. Unlike Gordon, the 2000 series champion will not contend for the win Saturday night, but he could easily score a solid top-20 finish and provide a good value pick.
Five Darkhorse Picks: Bobby Labonte, Casey Mears, Macros Ambrose, Jamie McMurray, Landon Cassill
Best Average Finish at Richmond (Wins):
1. Kyle Busch — 4.7 (4)
2. Denny Hamlin — 7.3 (2)
3. Clint Bowyer — 10.2 (1)
4. Tony Stewart — 10.6 (3)
5. Kevin Harvick — 11.8 (2)
6. Ryan Newman — 11.8 (1)
7. Mark Martin — 12.1 (1)
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr. — 13.9 (3)
9. Jeff Gordon — 14.7 (2)
10. Carl Edwards — 14.8 (0)
by Jay Pennell
Follow Jay on Twitter: @JayWPennell
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