Athlon Sports 2012 Fantasy Football May Mock Draft

Yes, the start of the NFL season is still about three months away, so what? It's never too early to do a fantasy football mock draft even if training camps don't open for another month and a half.

That said, my colleagues at Athlon Sports and our friend and fantasy contributor Matt Schauf of DraftSharks.com, got together in May for our first fantasy football mock draft. Plenty has happened off the field since this exercise was conducted, so please keep that in mind when perusing and grading our choices.

Below is a complete breakdown of the 10-team, 16-round mock we conducted, along with some thoughts of my own interspersed.

For those who are interested in a different style of mock draft, you can pick up a copy of this year's Fantasy Football Magazine, for which we did a 12-team, 20-round mock draft, which includes IDPs. Besides the mock draft, this year's fantasy magazine features 500 players ranked, a 280-player Big Board, 3,200 projected stats, position-by-position breakdowns, team-by-team analysis from NFL beat writers, and additional features and content.

10-team, 16-round serpentine-style mock draft based on Athlon Sports standard scoring:

OFFENSE
10 yards rushing = 1 pt
10 yards receiving = 1 pt
25 yards passing = 1 pt
6 pts for all TDs
0.5 pts per reception

KICKING
FGs 39 yds and under = 3 pts
FGs 40-49 yds = 4 pts
FGs 50-59 yds = 5 pts
60+ yds = 6 pts
PATs = 1 pt

DEFENSE
0 pts allowed = 12 pts
1-6 PA = 10 pts
7-13 PA = 8 pts
14-20 PA = 6 pts
21-27 PA = 2 pts
28+ PA = 0 pts
Safeties = 2 pts
Fumbles recovered = 2 pts
Interceptions = 2 pts
Sacks = 1 pt
DEF/ST TDs = 6 pts

Starting lineup: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR), 1 K, 1 DEF/ST, 6 bench spots

Click here to see each team's complete roster

Round 1 Analysis: Surprise! The reigning NFL MVP and top scorer in fantasy football (per Athlon's scoring) goes No. 1 overall. The days of the running back-centric fantasy teams seem to be over, as evidenced by the fact that three quarterbacks and one wide receiver go in the first round. Chris Johnson (no. 3) going before LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice may also seem like a bit of a surprise, but remember this is a guy who rushed for more than 2,000 yards just three seasons ago.

Round 2 Analysis: Rob and Nathan are the only two to go running back-running back with their first two selections as another quarterback, two more wide receivers and the first tight end go off of the board in the second round. The four owners who didn't take a running back with their first pick do so this time around. Adrian Peterson will be an interesting name to watch as the summer plays out and the season gets closer. The Vikings' star is said to be progressing nicely in his rehab from the torn ACL he suffered in Week 16 last season. Whether or not he's ready to go come Week 1 and what to expect from AP from a fantasy standpoint are two entirely different questions, but one thing seems clear — if there's any year to get the All-Pro at reduced value, this is probably it.

Round 3 Analysis: Four other teams take a second running back in this round, incuding Corby going with Cleveland rookie Trent Richardson to pair with Seattle's Marshawn Lynch. While Richardson will more than likely be the first rookie to be taken in most fantasy drafts, one caveat in regards to taking him to soon in a non-keeper league: in the last 10 seasons only 12 rookies have rushed for more than 1,000 yards in their first season and only three have scored more than 10 touchdowns on the ground. If you take Richardson in the early rounds, you better hope you get something similar to that of Adrian Peterson's 2007 rookie campaign (1,341 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs) rather than Darren McFadden's in 2008 (499, 4).

Round 4 Analysis: Wide receivers were taken wth all but two picks in the fourth round, leaving three teams with just one running back by the end of this round. Green Bay teammates Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson go in a span of three picks, with Jennings going first even though Nelson out-scored him by nearly 70 fantasy points last season.

Round 5 Analysis: Dallas' duo of Dez Bryant and Miles Austin go in Round 5 with Bryant taken with the first pick and Austin following eight picks later. At the end of Round 5 every team has at least two running backs on their roster, while Steven and Corby each have three.

Round 6 Analysis: More wide receivers fly off the board as eight are taken in the sixth round. Corby took Kenny Britt at no. 55 overall before the Titans' wide receiver underwent a second procedure on his surgically repaired knee. It also will be interesting to see how Vincent Jackson does in Tampa Bay, especially now that he got the big contract he's longed (and sat out) for, and how Brandon Lloyd fares in a New England passing attack that doesn't lack for weapons.

Round 7 Analysis: Braden begins the seventh round by taking Tampa Bay rookie running back Doug Martin over the likes of Arizona's Beanie Wells, Cincinnati's BenJarvus Green-Ellis and either Carolina's Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Martin is more versatile than Buccanneers' teammate LeGarrette Blount, but it remains to be seen how the first-year back will be utilized. Four quarterbacks go in this round, including Peyton Manning, who is the 10th QB off the board, to Corby. Somewhat surprising, Charlie decides to use his seventh-rounder on Matt Ryan, taking his second quarterback (Tom Brady was his first-round pick), before a tight end or third running back.

Round 8 Analysis: The first tight ends come off the board for the first time since Round 4. Also Ben Tate, Arian Foster's backup in Houston, is taken before presumed starters Jahvid Best (Detroit) and Isaac Redman (Pittsburgh) or either of the Carolina Panthers' duo of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Tate was solid as a fill-in starter for Foster and second option for the Texans last season, but his primary value appears to be as Foster's handcuff.

Round 9 Analysis: Several intriguing picks including Demaryius Thomas, who could emerge as Peyton Manning's favorite target, especially on the long ball, in Denver. There's also Stevan Ridley, who could become the closest thing New England has to a No. 1 running back, especially with BenJarvus Green-Ellis now in Cincinnati. Then there's Rashard Mendenhall, who is expected at the very least to miss a signifcant amount of this season after suffering a torn ACL in the last week of the 2011 regular season. Mendenhall could prove to be a sneaky pick, but I would hedge my bets and not even consider taking a flier on him until the end of your draft. If anything, he's probably a name you would want to keep an eye on as the season progresses and possibly add him via the waiver wire/free agent route should it appear he's close to returning to the field.

Round 10 Analysis: Nathan and I decied to protect our early-round running back investments in Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte by taking their backups in this round. Charlie decides to pull the trigger on Jacksonville rookie wide receiver Justin Blackmon, but his status is something that definitely bears watching in light of his recent DUI arrest. Fellow rookie Robert Griffin III also goes in the tenth to Matt, who already has Michael Vick on his roster. Nothing wrong with taking a potential high-upside option to backup your starter who has a history of missing some games. I also liked Braden taking Indianapolis running back Donald Brown with the last pick of this round. Even though it's the Colts, he's still the presumed No. 1 at running back and it's always nice to get a starter, especially at running back, in the 10th round.

Round 11 Analysis: Braden followed up his Brown selection by taking San Francisco as the first DEF/ST off the board. No one decided to follow in his footsteps as the next DEF/STs didn't go until a round later. Matt decided to take a flier on former Brown and one-time 1,000-yard rusher Peyton Hillis, whose role in Kansas City will depend largely on how Jamaal Charles' performs in his return from a torn ACL in Week 1 of last season. Mario Manningham and Pierre Garcon will both be catching passes from different quarterbacks this season, and for what it's worth, I like Garcon's situation in Washington better than Manningham's in San Francisco. LaMichael James was also an interesting choice as the rookie has not only starter Frank Gore ahead of him, but also Kendall Hunter and Brandon Jacobs. James' role this season may be primarily as a kick returner and not as a running back.

Rounds 12 and 13 Analysis: Six DEF/STs go in these two rounds as owners started rounding out their starting line ups. Corby decided to take a chance on the seemingly forgotten LeGarrette Blount, who if anything could have value as a goal-line back for Tampa Bay. Mitch covered Detroit's backfield by pairing 12th-rounder Mikel Leshoure with eighth-round selection Jahvid Best. Three more rookies also go with Braden doubling down on Michael Floyd and Andrew Luck, while Rob took his second Titans' wideout in Kendall Wright in the 13th. Given Britt's status, which is uncertain at best right now, investing picks in Nate Washington and Wright is not the worst strategy.

Rounds 14-16 Analysis: Kickers, DEF/STs and upside picks dominated the final three rounds. I really liked Rob taking Ryan Williams with the first pick in the 14th round. The Arizona running back has yet to play in a NFL game, missing all of last season after tearing his patella tendon in a preseason game. If healthy, he should get plenty of opportunities in the Cardinals' backfield, especially considering Beanie Wells' own injury history. I also liked Patrick taking Miami's Daniel Thomas, Braden going with Atlanta's Jacquizz Rodgers and Mitch snagging Carolina's Mike Tolbert. Thomas should be the backup to Reggie Bush, who had his first 1,000-yard season in 2011 but under a different coaching staff than is there now, while Rodgers is expected to get more touches as the Falcons try to reduce Michael Turner's workload. Tolbert joins a crowded backfield in Carolina, but he also could emerge as the Panthers' primary goal-line back as the team would like to see quarterback Cam Newton run the ball in those situations less than he did last season. Randy Moss' attempt at a career revival in San Francisco will be interesting to watch, but his value seems somewhat limited due to fact that Alex Smith, as opposed to Tom Brady when Moss was with the Patriots, is his quarterback and the 49ers are a run-oriented team. Still, nothing wrong with taking a flier on him in second-to-last round, which is what Charlie did.

Click here to order your copy of the Athlon Sports 2012 Fantasy Football Magazine today.

— by Mark Ross, published on June 11, 2012

Additional Fantasy Football Content:

2012 Athlon Sports Fantasy Football Big Board
Positional Ranks: Quarterbacks
Positional Ranks: Running Backs
Positional Ranks: Wide Receivers
Positional Ranks: Tight Ends
Fantasy Football 2012 NFL Bye Week Cheat Sheet