Pennell’s Picks: Fantasy NASCAR Trends at Watkins Glen
Jay Pennell looks at favorites and darkhorses for the Finger Lakes 355
By: Matt Taliaferro | 8/9/12, 1:37 PM EDT
2011 Watkins Glen winner Marcos Ambrose. (ASP, Inc.)
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series returns to the Northeast this weekend as it hits Watkins Glen International for the Finger Lakes 355 at the Glen. The second of two road course races this season, teams will have to adjust to turning both left and right, carrying high speeds and preparing for heavy braking with multiple elevation changes and opposite-side pit stops.
Always a challenge, some in the garage have excelled at the road course events while others have struggled mightily. While road racing experience and an open-wheel background may have made a significant difference in years past, the level of competition has evened out of late.
Track position, however, has always been a major factor in deciding a winner at Watkins Glen. Starting up front and staying there is one of the biggest keys to a successful day at the Glen. In the 29 Cup races here, 19 have been won from the top-5 starting spots — so pay attention Saturday’s qualifying.
Last year, race winner Marcos Ambrose used both road course experience and a solid starting spot to earn his first career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series victory. Always one of the strongest drivers at Watkins Glen, Ambrose leads the field in terms of average finish, with an impressive 2.3.
In fact, in his four starts at the Glen, Ambrose has failed to finish worse than third. In addition, the Australian-native has won three of the four Nationwide Series races he has run.
Given his prior success at Watkins Glen, Ambrose is definitely among the top 5 favorites in this week's fantasy outlook, but he is not the favorite. That belongs to a determined, hard-nosed, skilled road course driver known as “Rowdy.”
While Ambrose scored the victory in last year's event, it was Joe Gibbs Racing's Kyle Busch that led the most laps (49 of 92). Although he led the field to the green flag on a final green-white-checker finish, Busch was muscled out of the way by Ambrose and Brad Keselowski, eventually settling in at the third spot. With one of the best cars that day, the third-place finish was a tough pill to swallow for the 2008 Watkins Glen winner.
Heading into this weekend's race, Busch is in need of not only a solid finish, but a win. After a disappointing 33rd-place finish last weekend at Pocono, the driver of the No. 18 Toyota is currently fourth in the wild card standings behind Kasey Kahne (2 wins), Jeff Gordon (1) and Ryan Newman (1).
Following the wreck at Pocono, Busch and his Dave Rogers-led team know if they want to be a part of the 12-driver Chase for the Sprint Cup they have to win their way in. One of the most dangerous teams when it comes to recording a string of wins, the JGR driver admits their season struggles give them little hope. Despite having one win, six top 5s and nine top 10s, Busch also has eight finishes of 23rd or worse, including three DNFs.
Yet, if there was one driver and team that could turn their luck around in the final five regular-season races, it’s this one. Already a former winner at the Glen, Busch has an average finish of 9.3 (fourth best) at Watkins Glen and has finished in the top 10 in six of his seven Cup starts.
With playoff implications on the line and one of his best tracks in front of him, look for Busch and the No. 18 team to employ the right strategy and have a strong enough car to best the rest.
Among those Busch will have to beat is last week's winner at Pocono, Jeff Gordon.
Now in the thick of the Chase wild card battle after winning the rain-shortened race Sunday afternoon, Gordon has momentum on his side and is eager to celebrate his 20th year in the Sprint Cup Series by making the Chase. Although he admits the No. 24 team has struggled to find speed over the past decade at the Glen, that momentum and confidence can go a long way for a driver that could use another win in the next five races.
Five Favorites: Kyle Busch, Marcos Ambrose, Jeff Gordon, Brad Keselowski, Tony Stewart
Sonoma winner Clint Bowyer. (ASP, Inc.)
The last time the Sprint Cup Series hit the road course, Michael Waltrip Racing's Clint Bowyer earned his first win for the company in Sonoma, Calif.
While Bowyer has not fared as well in the past at Watkins Glen (he has only one top 10 and an average finish of 21.3), his crew chief Brian Pattie has victories in all three NASCAR touring series here.
Currently 10th in the standings, Bowyer and the No. 15 team are on the edge of the Chase cut-off spot. Bringing the winning car from Sonoma, Pattie knows it will take a different setup than earlier in the year to be successful on Sunday.
“Sonoma is slower speeds and probably closer to setting a car up for Martinsville,” Bowyer says. "Watkins Glen is big and fast. It has longer breaking zones and much higher speeds, so the setups are a lot different. If you bring the same setup that we used to win at Sonoma to Watkins Glen, (it) would be like taking a car built and setup for Martinsville and trying to use it for Dover. It’s that much different.”
With a confident crew chief, an undervalued road-course racer behind the wheel and Chase implications all around them, expect the No. 15 team to have a strong day and possibly contend for the win.
Five Undervalued Picks: Clint Bowyer, Juan Pablo Montoya, Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick
Much like this week's undervalued pick, the darkhorse pick for Sunday's Finger Lakes 355 comes out of the Michael Waltrip Racing stable. Back in the car this weekend for the fifth time in 2012, Brian Vickers is looking to continue his success behind the wheel of the No. 55 Toyota.
Fourth in the first road course race of the year in Sonoma, Vickers has quietly become a much better road racer over the years, and has found success in the No. 55 car in his first four starts with the team (fifth, 18th, fourth, 15th).
While Vickers has only one top 10 at the Glen (eighth, 2005), he has finished 18th or better in his last three trips to the Finger Lakes region. With his success this season in the No. 55 and the budding potential of MWR in 2012, look for Vickers to stand out as the darkhorse pick of the week.
Five Darkhorse Picks: Brian Vickers, Joey Logano, Jeff Burton, Sam Hornish Jr., Kurt Busch
Best Average Finish at Watkins Glen (Wins/Starts)
1. Marcos Ambrose — 2.2 (1/4)
2. Tony Stewart — 7.1 (5/13)
3. Carl Edwards — 8.7 (0/7)
4. Kyle Busch — 9.3 (1/7)
5. Brad Keselowski — 11.0 (0/2)
6. Juan Pablo Montoya — 11.4 (1/5)
7. Kevin Harvick — 12.9 (0/11)
8. Jimmie Johnson — 14.2 (0/10)
9. Martin Truex Jr. — 14.3 (0/6)
10. Jeff Gordon — 14.5 (4/19)
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