Liberty Bowl: UCF vs. Mississippi State

Analysis
Mississippi State returns to postseason play for the first time since 2000 after winning seven games overall, including four in the very difficult Southeastern Conference. It wasn’t always pretty — State was outgained in six of its eight league games — but Sylvester Croom’s team found a way to win in his fourth year in Starkville. MSU’s offensive numbers were down from last year (103^rd in total offense in 2006, 112^th in ’07), but the Dogs jumped from 41^st to 28^th in total defense.

Though the Dogs did get decent play from true freshman quarterback Wesley Carroll down the stretch, this team is at its best when it’s controlling the clock with its running game. Anthony Dixon (980 yards) was the workhorse, but fellow sophomore Christian Ducré (467) also made a significant contribution.

Getting contributions at running back was never a concern at UCF this year. Junior Kevin Smith led the nation in attempts (415), net yards (2,448), rushing touchdowns (29) and rushing yards per game (188.3). He needs 181 yards to break Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record of 2,628 yards set in 1988. The Golden Knights can move the ball through the air, as well, but their passing numbers aren’t overly impressive due to their reliance on Smith.

The key for Mississippi State will be to find a way to limit Smith’s effectiveness. He will get his yards, but if the Dogs can keep him under 150 yards, they stand a better chance of winning. UCF went 1–3 when Smith failed to hit the 150 mark; 8–0 when he went for more than 150.

MSU, playing in nearby Memphis, figures to have the vast majority of the fans at the Liberty Bowl. But UCF will have the best player on the field, and that could be enough for the upset.

Breakdown: UCF
Campus Location: Orlando, Fla.
Distance to Memphis: 768 miles
All-Time Bowl Game Record: 0–1
2007 Season: 10–3, 7–1 Conference USA

NCAA Rankings (yards/points per game totals):
Rush Offense: 9 (243)
Pass Offense: 101 (184)
Scoring Offense: 13 (38)
Rush Defense: 37 (131)
Pass Defense: 85 (248)
Scoring Defense: 65 (28)
Turnover Margin: 39 (0.31)

Additional Notes:
UCF went 1–2 in three games vs. BCS conference foes, beating North Carolina State on the road, losing at home to Texas by three points and losing at South Florida. … The Golden Knights have won two of three Conference USA title games ever played. … UCF has played once before at the Liberty Bowl, beating Memphis 26–24 in 2006 in a Conference USA regular-season game.

Breakdown: Mississippi State
Campus Location: Starkville, Miss.
Distance to Memphis: 175 miles
All-Time Bowl Game Record: 6–6
2007 Season: 7–5, 4–4 SEC

NCAA Rankings (yards/points per game totals):
Rush Offense: 79 (135)
Pass Offense: 108 (170)
Scoring Offense: 93 (22)
Rush Defense: 65 (159)
Pass Defense: 10 (182)
Scoring Defense: 48 (25)
Turnover Margin: 79 (-0.25)

Additional Notes:
In every game, Mississippi State either gave up 33 points or more (five times) or 17 points or less (seven times). … The Mississippi State offense was more productive on the road (337.8 yards per game) than at home (272.5). … MSU coach Sylvester Croom has won two straight games vs. his alma mater, Alabama. … State recorded three wins over other bowl teams, Auburn, Kentucky and Alabama.

Prediction: UCF by 3