Holiday Bowl: Arizona State vs. Texas

Teams: Arizona State vs. Texas
Date: Dec. 27, 2007 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern
Location: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, Calif.

Analysis
Get past the good-natured “we’re happy to play in an excellent bowl” quotes and you’ll find an Arizona State team that missed out on a BCS at-large bid despite being ranked No. 11 in the final standings. The Sun Devils were one of the last remaining unbeaten teams before falling to Oregon and USC in the final four games of the season.

Their consolation prize is a trip to San Diego to face the Texas Longhorns. There are definitely worse places to play a football game in December, though the Longhorns should prove quite a challenge behind a “disappointing” 9–3 record. The Longhorns have won nine games in 10 consecutive seasons and 10 games in six consecutive. They’ll be looking to up that latter number to seven straight behind sophomore quarterback Colt McCoy and junior running back Jamaal Charles.

McCoy’s productivity has been a far cry from his freshman season and part of that has to do with injuries to a retooled offensive line. He’s been on his back far too many times this season. Because of this, look for the Longhorns to rely on Charles, who rushed 231 times for 1,458 yards (6.3 ypc) and 16 TDs in his first season as the primary ball carrier.

But offense hasn’t been the problem for the Longhorns this season — they’ve scored 21 points in every game. The problem has been the secondary — again. Texas ranks 109th in the country in pass defense and is subject to the big play through the air. Look for coach Dennis Erickson to rely heavily on QB Rudy Carpenter and his aerial attack in this one despite sporting a fairly balanced offense throughout the regular season.

This is the first matchup between Texas and Arizona State and should be an interesting one, to say the least. There’s been a history of the better team letting down in the Holiday Bowl after a disappointing BCS ruling. Just ask Texas. It got beat by Washington State after being shunned for a BCS berth in 2003. We don’t think that’ll happen under Erickson, though.

Breakdown: Arizona State
Campus Location: Tempe, Ariz.
Distance to San Diego: 363 miles
All-Time Bowl Game Record: 12–9–1
2007 Season: 10–2, 7–2 Pac-10

NCAA Rankings (yards/points per game totals):
Rush Offense: 67 (147)
Pass Offense: 38 (259)
Scoring Offense: 34 (32)
Rush Defense: 13 (101)
Pass Defense: 69 (234)
Scoring Defense: 22 (20)
Turnover Margin: 24 (0.58)

Additional Notes:
Arizona State has lost its two previous appearances in the Holiday Bowl (1985, 2002) … ASU ranks 117th out of 119 teams in sacks allowed, giving up more than 4 per game … Rudy Carpenter has thrown for 3,015 yards with 23 TDs and 8 INTs this year, including at least one TD in every game this season … ASU has scored at least 20 points in every game.

Breakdown: Texas
Campus Location: Austin, Texas
Distance to San Diego: 1,303 miles
All-Time Bowl Game Record: 23–21–2
2007 Season: 9–3, 5–3 Big 12

NCAA Rankings (yards/points per game totals):
Rush Offense: 25 (200)
Pass Offense: 36 (262)
Scoring Offense: 19 (36)
Rush Defense: 10 (99)
Pass Defense: 109 (276)
Scoring Defense: 45 (25)
Turnover Margin: 79 (–0.25)

Additional Notes:
This will be the Longhorns’ fourth appearance in the Holiday Bowl under coach Mack Brown. They hold a 1–2 record in those previous three games with a win against Washington and losses to Oregon and Washington State … Texas is playing in a bowl game for a school-record 10th consecutive season and has a record of 6–3 in the nine games under Brown, including three straight wins (2 Rose, 1 Alamo) … Texas’ three losses this season came to Kansas State, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.

Prediction: Arizona State by 1

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