New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico vs. Nevada

Teams: Nevada vs. New Mexico
Date: Dec. 22, 2007 at 4:30 p.m. Eastern
Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico

Analysis
Neither team enters this matchup on what you would call a roll; New Mexico split the final four games of the season, while Nevada lost two of its last three, including an upset loss to San Jose State. Both teams showed flashes of excellence, though, and this game offers its share of intrigue.

On the surface, the key matchup consists of Nevada’s high-powered offense against New Mexico’s sturdy defense. The Wolf Pack scored 30 or more points eight times, including a 67-point outburst in a four-overtime loss to Boise State. In freshman Colin Kaepernick, Nevada boasts the WAC’s version of Tim Tebow; Kaepernick accounted for 2,605 yards of offense and 25 touchdowns. His backfield mate Luke Lippencott rushed for 1,380 yards, including 140 against WAC champion Hawaii and 187 against Boise State. They’ll test a Lobo defense that ranked 25th nationally in points allowed.

But don’t discount New Mexico’s offensive weapons. The Lobos boast a 1,000-yard rusher of their own in Rodney Ferguson, and Donovan Porterie was a prolific passer in his own right. They should find room to operate against Nevada’s porous defense. Throw in the homefield advantage, and signs point to a New Mexico win.

Breakdown: New Mexico
Campus Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico
Distance to Albuquerque: N/A
All-Time Bowl Game Record: 2–7–1
2007 Season: 8–4, 5–3 Mountain West Conference

NCAA Rankings (yards/points per game totals):
Rush Offense: 83 (132)
Pass Offense: 59 (225)
Scoring Offense: 78 (25)
Rush Defense: 31 (127)
Pass Defense: 22 (202)
Scoring Defense: 25 (21)
Turnover Margin: 47 (0.08)

Additional Notes:
Sophomore quarterback Donovan Porterie had his best game in New Mexico’s signature win of the season, a 29–27 decision over Arizona of the Pac-10 in September. In that game, Porterie completed 29-of-41 passes for 327 yards and a season-high three touchdowns.

Breakdown: Nevada
Campus Location: Reno, Nevada
Distance to Albuquerque: 1,022 miles
All-Time Bowl Game Record: 3–4
2007 Season: 6–6, 4–4 Western Athletic Conference

NCAA Rankings (yards/points per game totals):
Rush Offense: 11 (226)
Pass Offense: 35 (263)
Scoring Offense: 18 (36)
Rush Defense: 79 (173)
Pass Defense: 67 (231)
Scoring Defense: 97 (33)
Turnover Margin: 83 (-0.33)

Additional Notes:
Nevada suffered several heartbreaking losses in 2007. After an opening blowout loss to Nebraska, the Wolf Pack’s other five losses came by a total of 20 points, including a four-overtime loss to Boise State and a two-point loss to Hawaii.

Prediction: New Mexico by 3

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