Vacchiano: Wild-card races far from decided

The Patriots (12-0) are still seeking perfection and so, in a way, are the Dolphins (0-12). And other than the Pats and the Cowboys (11-1), no one else has officially clinched a division championship yet.
 
But a look at the NFL standings with four weeks to go shows there’s little drama at the top. The Pats are going to win the AFC East. The Steelers (9-3), Colts (10-2) and Chargers (7-5) each have two-game leads in the North, South and West, respectively. And in the NFC, it’ll take a miracle for the chasers to prevent the Cowboys, Packers (10-2), Buccaneers (8-4) and Seahawks (8-4) from winning their divisions, too.
 
Just below them, though, there is nothing but chaos in what could be a very wild, wild-card chase. There are four teams chasing two spots in the powerful AFC, and nine teams claiming to be alive in the mediocre NFC.
 
Here’s a look at the races as everyone gets ready for the stretch:
 
AFC

The contenders: Jacksonville (8-4), Cleveland (7-5), Tennessee (7-5), Buffalo (6-6)

Who gets in?: Jaguars and Browns.

Why?: The efficiency of Jaguars QB David Garrard has been amazing all season, and they’ve got a powerful running game as well. They don’t make mistakes, can control the ball, and with the Panthers and Raiders still on their slate, they’re a lock for 10 wins. The Browns, with red-hot QB Derek Anderson and their high-flying offense could get to 10 as well, considering the rest of their schedule includes the Jets, Bills, Bengals and 49ers – four teams with a combined record of 16-32.

The Titans can’t be completely ruled out, especially if DT Albert Haynesworth returns, because their defense is hard to beat when he’s in there. And Vince Young has been a much improved passer lately, and he’s still one of the more dynamic and dangerous players in the league. But their remaining schedule includes the Chargers, Chiefs and Colts. Nine wins might even be out of reach.
 
As for the Bills, given how bad they’ve been both offensively and defensively this season, it’s amazing they’re even at .500. They proved how far they are from the pack when they lost 36-14 at Jacksonville two weeks ago. Having Cleveland and the Giants still on their schedule won’t help.
 
NFC

The contenders: New York Giants (8-4), Detroit (6-6), Minnesota (6-6), Arizona (6-6), Philadelphia (5-7), Washington (5-7), Chicago (5-7), Carolina (5-7), New Orleans (5-7)

Who gets in?: Giants and Vikings

Why?: Though they’re hardly a dominant team, the Giants do have a three-game lead on most of the contenders with four to play, which mathematically makes them likely to earn a berth. Plus, they’re playing very good defense lately and are 5-1 on the road – two things that will help. The Vikings will earn the next spot for two simple reasons: They have the best run defense in the NFL, and in Adrian Peterson they have the most dangerous player in the NFC. They can run all over you, but you can’t run all over them. That will help them immensely down the stretch.

Out of the rest of the mediocre pack, the Cardinals are probably the only team that can give them a run. Now that everyone has seen the Lions are a one-trick pony – a one-dimensional offense that relies on big passing plays that aren’t always there – they are appropriately reeling with four straight losses. But the Cards are surging behind QB Kurt Warner, especially after a huge win over the Browns. And they finish up with three easy games against the Saints, Falcons and Rams.
 
As for the mess of 5-7 teams – the Eagles, Redskins, Bears, Panthers and Saints – they’d have to go 3-1 down the stretch at least, and probably 4-0 to secure that last wild-card berth. And even then they’ll have to keep their fingers’ crossed that they’ll win a tie-breaker with Minnesota, Arizona or Detroit. None of them have shown they’re even remotely capable of something like that.
 
So it’ll be the Jaguars, Browns, Giants and Vikings who emerge from the wild-card pack in the end. Not that it’ll matter in one of the most top-heavy seasons in NFL history. With the Patriots, Colts, Cowboys and Packers dominating their conferences, the winners of this year’s wild-card playoff berths will have to be happy with just getting in.

Del.icio.us | Digg it | Athlon Sports RSS Feeds