Weekend On Tap: November 29 edition

It's championship week for five conferences, rivalry week in the Pac-10 and the last chance for teams to make a case for inclusion in a bowl. Mitch Light predicts 10 winners for the final weekend of college football in his On Tap column.

Central Michigan (-3) vs. Miami (Ohio) (MAC Championship Game)
These two teams are a combined two games over .500, but it’s more of a product of their tough non-conference schedules than an indictment on the quality of their respective teams. Miami, 6–6 overall, played five BCS conference schools, beating Syracuse and losing to Minnesota (in overtime), Cincinnati, Colorado and Vanderbilt. Central Michigan, 7–5, played Kansas, Purdue and Clemson from BCS conferences. The Chips boast one of the most powerful offenses in the league, led by outstanding dual-threat quarterback Dan LeFevour. They also feature one of the MAC’s worst defenses, giving up an average of 462.3 yards and 38.9 points per game. Miami ranks in the middle of the league in offense but in the top two in most key defensive stats. CMU wants a shootout; the RedHawks would like to keep the score in the 20s.
Miami 29, Central Michigan 28 

Tulsa (+6.5) at UCF (C-USA Championship Game)
It’s a rematch of the first-ever C-USA title game, a 44–27 UCF win all the way back in 2005. Thanks to the Golden Knights’ better conference record (7–1 vs. 6–2), the title game will be played in Orlando at Bright House Networks Stadium. That’s not good news for Tulsa. UCF went 5–1 in its new home field, with the only loss by three points (38–35) to mighty Texas. One of the five wins was a 44–23 decision over this same Tulsa team. The Knights rolled up 453 total yards in that game, 224 in the air and 229 on the ground. Kevin Smith, the nation’s leading rusher had a ‘below average’ game, with 170 yards — he averages 180.3 — and three touchdowns on 33 carries. Tulsa leads the nation in total offense, averaging 548.6 yards per game, but the Hurricane have been poor on defense (111th, 471.8 ypg) under first-year coach Todd Graham, the school’s former defensive coordinator.
UCF 41, Tulsa 33

Virginia Tech (-4.5) vs. Boston College (ACC Championship Game)
As every Hokie fan is well aware, Virginia Tech is a Matt Ryan miracle away from being in the middle of the national title talk. Had the Hokies survived on that Thursday night, they’d have only one loss, at LSU back on the second week of the season. But they didn’t survive, so now the best they can hope for is a big dose of revenge — and, of course, an ACC title. The Tech offense has been playing well of late, with both Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor taking snaps at quarterback. Glennon, who sees the majority of the action, is coming off a 13-of-19, 260-yard effort against a very good Virginia defense. If the Hokies get that type of efficiency from the quarterback position and Branden Ore can flirt the 100-yard mark, they should be celebrating their second ACC title Saturday afternoon.
Virginia Tech 21, Boston College 14

LSU (-7.5) vs. Tennessee (SEC Championship Game)
You know your program has high goals when simply playing for the SEC championship is a disappointment. But that is the case for the 2007 LSU Tigers. A team that set its sights on a national title in the preseason and climbed to No. 1 in the nation on two separate occasions figured that this trip to Atlanta would be nothing more than a step towards the BCS national title game in New Orleans. Sure, winning another SEC championship — they have two since 2001 — would be nice, but nothing short of a national crown would be good enough for a team with so much talent on both sides of the ball. Tennessee, on the other hand, is thrilled to ‘only’ be playing for a league title. After losing the SEC opener at Florida by 39 points, winning the East was the furthest thing from Phil Fulmer’s mind. And when the Vols dropped to 2–2 with a 41–17 loss at Alabama in late October, a trip to Atlanta seemed all but impossible. But the Vols persevered — and got some help, from both other teams in the East and opposing field goal kickers.
LSU 33, Tennessee 21

Oklahoma (-3) vs. Missouri (Big 12 Championship Game)
Oklahoma is flying a bit under the radar, but this is a very, very good Sooner team. Sam Bradford, who missed the majority of the loss to Texas Tech, is leading the nation in passing efficiency. OU also boasts a powerful running game — even without the injured DeMarco Murray. When these teams met in Norman in mid-October, Missouri outgained OU 418 to 384 but lost the turnover battle 4 to 2 and the game 41–31. The Tigers will have the services of standout tailback Tony Temple, who missed the first game with an injury. The Sooners lead the Big 12 in rushing defense and will do their best to make Temple a non-factor and make the Tigers’ powerful offense one-dimensional. This should be the best of the league title games this weekend.
Oklahoma 38, Missouri 30

Arizona (+6.5) at Arizona State
For the second straight season, Arizona brings a three-game winning streak into the season-finale with rival Arizona State. Last year, the Wildcats, as a 3-point favorite, lost a 28–14 decision in the final game of the Dirk Koetter era at ASU. That game prevented the Cats, who finished 6–6, from getting back to a bowl game for the first time since 1998. While there are no guarantees, Arizona, currently 5–6, could be headed to postseason play with a win in Tempe Saturday. That, however, will be tough. The Sun Devils haven’t been playing their best football down the stretch, but this is still a very good team. Their only two losses are at Oregon (with a healthy Dennis Dixon) and at home to powerful USC on Thanksgiving night. This should be a much better game than we thought it was going to be a month ago, but ASU should prevail at home.
Arizona State 36, Arizona 27

Rutgers (+2.5) at Louisville
This game was supposed to have Big East title implications. It doesn’t. Rutgers slipped out of the race with back-to-back losses to West Virginia and UConn. Louisville? Well, the Cards were never in the race. Arguably the biggest disappointment of the 2007 season, Louisville is 5–6 overall and 2–4 in the Big East. A win makes the Cards bowl-eligible, but they have been eliminated from Big East tie-ins because there are already five teams with seven wins or more. So this is likely it for Brian Brohm and a senior class that has done so much for the program. This group would like nothing more than to go out with a win and exact some revenge on Rutgers, which ended the Cards’ national title hopes last fall.
Louisville 28, Rutgers 17

Army (+14) vs. Navy (in Philadelphia)
Navy has dominated this series since Paul Johnson arrived on the scene, winning all five games by an average of 26.8 points. And the Midshipmen are a two-touchdown favorite to make it six straight. This is far from Johnson’s best team at Navy, but the Middies, thanks to an explosive offense, have still won seven games (so far) and are headed back to a bowl game for a fifth-straight season. Navy is averaging over 40 points per game and has managed to win four games in which it gave up at least 43 points. It’s been another tough year at Army, which is 3–8 under first-year coach Stan Brock. The Black Knights have lost five in a row, all by at least 10 points, and currently rank 90th in the nation or worse in 12 of the 17 major statistical categories maintained by the NCAA. There is really no reason to think that Navy’s mastery in this series will end this weekend.
Navy 51, Army 23

UCLA (+20.5) at USC
Amazingly, UCLA, a team that lost at home to Notre Dame, can still win the Pac-10 title and represent the league in the Rose Bowl. If the Bruins beat USC and Arizona upsets Arizona State in Tempe — and I know those are two big ifs (especially the first one) — then the 7–5 Bruins will be playing at home on New Year’s Day. USC can wrap up a trip to Pasadena with a win, which is far more likely. This team has had some issues, but the Trojans are playing extremely well down the stretch. They have won three straight, including a very impressive beatdown of Arizona State in Tempe on Thanksgiving night. The Bruins have been one of the most schizophrenic teams in the nation this year. Nothing they do should surprise us. That being said, I’d be shocked if they won at USC this weekend.
USC 30, UCLA 17

Pittsburgh (+28) at West Virginia
Never has the Backyard Brawl meant so much to the West Virginia Mountaineers. And it has nothing to do with their disdain for the neighboring Pittsburgh Panthers. It’s all about the next step — playing in the BCS title game. It’s simple. If WVU beats Pitt, it will be playing for national championship. If not, the Mounties will still be heading to a BCS bowl as the Big East champ, but they will be doing so as an extremely disappointed team. Pitt limps into the finale with a 4–7 record, but the Panthers have played some decent football over the past month. Their last three losses, at Louisville, at Rutgers and vs. South Florida, have been by an average of 7.3 points. The offense has been a problem all season (101st in the nation), but true freshman tailback LeSean McCoy is very dangerous. He ranks second in the Big East in rushing, averaging 107.3 yards per game. But even if McCoy runs wilds, it’s difficult to envision Pittsburgh keeping up with the explosive Mounties. With so much at stake, you’d have to think Rich Rodriguez will have his team focused and ready to take care of business.
West Virginia 38, Pittsburgh 13

Last week — 7–3 overall (6–4 against the spread)
Season — 92–38 overall (72–52-6 against the spread)

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