Weekend On Tap: November 22 edition

There's rivalry games all over the country, including a few big that will decide the Big 12 title game participants. Mitch Light predicts 10 winners for Thanksgiving weekend's biggest games in his On Tap column.

Texas (–5.5) at Texas A&M
Texas has very quietly won nine games in 2007, but this is far from a vintage Longhorn team. The defense has given up 103 points in the past three games, yet the Horns have won all three. They had to rally to beat both Nebraska and Oklahoma State and then simply outgunned the Red Raiders 59–43 in Austin two weeks ago. Texas had the week off to prepare for A&M, which limped home to College Station on a three-game losing streak, the final two on the road. A&M was 5–1 overall after beating Oklahoma State in early April but has won just once since. This could be Dennis Franchione’s final regular-season game as the Aggies’ boss. Don’t expect a happy ending.
Texas 38, Texas A&M 21

Boise State (+3.5) at Hawaii
Hawaii might be undefeated, but the Warriors are living a lie. I can forgive a close call or two, but June Jones’ club is struggling to beat WAC teams with alarming regularity. Hawaii beat Nevada by two, Fresno State by seven, San Jose State and Louisiana Tech in overtime, etc. This doesn’t make the Warriors a bad team; it just makes them a team that doesn’t deserve its spot in the rankings. Boise State, on the other hand, is pounding the rest of the league the way a potential BCS bowl team should. Sure, the early season loss to Washington is troubling, but that was a long time ago. This team has great offensive balance, with the efficient Taylor Tharp running the show an the impressive Ian Johnson running the ball.
Boise State 41, Hawaii 27

UConn (+17) at West Virginia
It can’t be a good thing for the Big East that the one team is favored by 17 points in the de facto league title game. UConn, the surprise of the league, is just a solid football team. The Huskies don’t make mistakes (No. 5 in the nation in turnover margin), they can run the ball with Donald Brown and Andre Dixon, they can beat you in the passing game, and they play excellent defense. That being said, they aren’t nearly as talented as West Virginia, one of the most explosive offensive teams in the nation. The Mounties have much more than a Big East title to play for. By virtue of the continued craziness of the 2007 season, West Virginia is still very much alive in the national title chase. Rich Rodriguez’s club will stay in the hunt, but it might not be easy.
West Virginia 27, UConn 17

Georgia (-3.5) at Georgia Tech
Not so long ago, Georgia Tech had a nice little run against the big, bad, Bulldogs from Athens. From 1998-2000, the Yellow Jackets won three straight — all by three points or less — including two at Sanford Stadium. Then something happened: Mark Richt took over at Georgia. The Dawgs are 6–0 vs. Tech on Richt’s watch, though the last three have all been decided by seven points or less. This year, Georgia is a slight favorite (3.5 points) to extend the streak to seven games. The Dawgs recovered from a mid-season slump and have been playing as well as any team in the SEC over the past month. They closed their league slate with four straight wins, highlighted by double-digit victories over Florida and Auburn. Georgia, 9–2 overall and 6–2 in the league, will play in the SEC title game if Kentucky beats Tennessee this Saturday. If not, the Dawgs — assuming they win this weekend — will sit back and wait for a possible at-large invitation to a BCS bowl. In a not-so-surprising development, Georgia Tech finished 4–4 in the ACC; it’s the fifth time in the last seven years the Jackets have been .500 in league play. Tech lost three of four during one stretch earlier this season but has bounced back to win four of its last five to improve its overall record to 7–4. But only one of the Jackets’ seven victims (Clemson) currently has a winning record. Chan Gailey’s club has beaten up on the bottom of the ACC (and Notre Dame, Army and Samford) but has struggled against good competition.
Georgia 20, Georgia Tech 13

Missouri (+2.5) vs. Kansas (in Kansas City)
It’s the biggest game in the history of this long and incredibly even rivalry. These two schools have met 115 times, with each team winning 53 games (according to Missouri records) to go along with nine ties (though the Kansas media guide claims a 54–52–9 advantage. The team that picks up this win will capture the Big 12 North title and remain in the hunt for a national title. Both teams have been extremely impressive on the offensive side of the ball this season. Kansas’ defensive stats are better, but the Jayhawks schedule has not been as challenging. While Mark Mangino’s club feasted on Central Michigan, Southeastern Louisiana, Toledo and Florida International in its non-conference slate, MU took on Ole Miss (a bad SEC team, but still an SEC team) and Illinois (a second-place finisher in the Big Ten), as well as Western Michigan and Illinois State. In addition, the Tigers had to play at Oklahoma within the league, while KU avoided both the Sooners and the Texas Longhorns. Go with the more battle-tested Tigers from Columbia.
Missouri 41, Kansas 34

Wake Forest (-1.5) at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt gets its fourth and final shot at reaching bowl-eligibility against Wake Forest in the first of a seven-game series between the two schools. The Commodores picked up win No. 5 late last month against Miami (Ohio), but have failed to crack the win column, losing to Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee. Now, Wake Forest visits Dudley Field for its first trip to Nashville since 1994. The 7–4  Deacons are headed to a bowl game for the second straight year after wrapping up their ACC schedule with a 5–3 mark. Statistically, Vanderbilt will be the third-best defense Wake has faced this season. Only Clemson and Virginia rank higher than the Commodores, who are 24th in the nation in total defense, allowing 327.91 yards per game. Vanderbilt has held all but two of its opponents (Florida and Auburn) to below their season averages in total offense. Vanderbilt’s offensive numbers have not been very good for the majority of the season, but the Commodores have put up some good rushing stats in recent weeks. They only gained 270 total yards vs. Tennessee last week but had three touchdown drives of 75 yards or more, with the majority of the work done on the ground. And two weeks ago, in a loss to Kentucky, the Dores rushed for a season-high 239 yards. This figures to go down to the wire.
Vanderbilt 24, Wake Forest 20

Alabama (+6) at Auburn
Nick Saban is getting paid a ton of money to win championships at the University of Alabama. Before you can win a title, however, you have to win your state, something Bama has failed to do in each of the past five seasons. The West Division title has already been decided — LSU has a two-game lead with one to play — but there is plenty at stake a (other than bragging rights) at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The winner can stake claim to sole possession of second place in the West, while the loser must settle for a rather ordinary .500 record in league play. Auburn is trying to extend its school record of winning SEC seasons from seven to eight, while Alabama is trying to avoid its second straight non-winning league season and its fourth in the past five years.
Auburn 27, Alabama 17

Tennessee (+3) at Kentucky
One fact will tell you how much progress the Kentucky football program has made in the past few years: the Wildcats are a three-point favorite over a Tennessee team that is one win away from securing a trip to the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. Kentucky has been an underdog in this annual matchup every year dating back to at least 1985 and has been a double-digit dog in all but two games since 1990. Tennessee is playing for the right to represent the Eastern Division in the SEC title game. The Vols kept their hopes alive last week with a fourth-quarter comeback win over Vanderbilt in Knoxville. The task is more challenging this week, primarily because Tennessee is playing on the road. All three of the Vols’ losses have been away from home, and all have been in convincing fashion — 45–31 at Cal, 59–20 at Florida and 41–17 at Alabama. If Tennessee commits to running the football, which it has done over the past four games, the Vols should be able to move the ball up and down the field. This team is 8–0 when it attempts 28 running plays or more and 0–3 when that number is 27 or less. Here’s something that isn’t said too often: go with the Vols to ‘upset’ Kentucky.
Tennessee 28, Kentucky 25

Utah (+4.5) at BYU
BYU snapped a four-game losing streak against Utah in the Holy War with a 33–31 win in Salt Lake City last year. Look for the Cougars to make it two straight. Bronco Mendendhal’s club has been vastly underrated all season. The Cougs are 8–2 overall (with September losses at UCLA and Tulsa) and a perfect 6–0 in league play. With the exception of the Tulsa game (595 yards, 55 points), they have played well defensively this fall, most notably against the run. Utah dropped off the national radar with a puzzling 1–3 start that included a 44–6 win over UCLA followed by a 27–0 loss to UNLV. Since that setback in Sin City, Utah is 7–0 and is headed to a bowl game for the fifth straight season.
BYU 27, Utah 21

Virginia Tech (-3.5) at Virginia
The winner of the Commonwealth Cup will represent the Coastal Division against Boston College in the ACC Championship Game in Jacksonville. The Hokies have won seven of the past eight dating back to 1999, and all seven wins have been by 10 points or more. Virginia Tech is 9–2 overall and Matt Ryan miracle away from being in the national title hunt. Virginia is also 9–2, thanks to an NCAA record five wins by two points or less. The close-to-the-vest Cavs enjoyed a rare blowout in their last outing, a 48–0 beatdown of Miami in the Canes’ final game at the Orange Bowl. Al Groh’s club has had an extra week to prepare for the Hokies. It won’t matter.
Virginia Tech 23, Virginia 14

Last week — 8–2 overall (6–4 against the spread)
Season — 85–35 overall (66–48–6 against the spread)

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