Weekend On Tap: November 15 edition

The 1-9 showdown between Duke and Notre Dame takes place this weekend in South Bend while the ACC's Atlantic division winner will be decided in Death Valley. Mitch Light predicts the winners in these and eight other games in his Weekend On Tap column.

Click on any game to get Athlon's preview or head on over to our conference notebooks to find a game preview for the rest of the 119 D-I teams. Also, be sure to check out this week's Goal Line Stand column and watch the Weekend Preview Video.

Missouri (-7) at Kansas State
This hasn’t been the best two weeks of Ron Prince’s brief tenure at Kansas State. First, the Wildcats dropped a 31–20 decision at Iowa State, giving the Cyclones their first Big 12 win of the season. Then, last weekend, K-State was absolutely destroyed in Lincoln by Nebraska 73–31. Yes, that’s the same Cornhusker team that lost to Kansas 76–39 just one week before. Have the Wildcats quit on their coach? That’s hard for anyone outside the program to say, but this clearly isn’t the same team that almost beat Auburn on the road and pounded Texas 41–21 in Austin. There have been no problems with consistency at Missouri. The Tigers have played well all season long and have put themselves in position to compete for their first conference title since 1969. This should be a tune-up for the showdown with Kansas in Kansas City.
Missouri 41, Kansas State 20 

Duke (+6) at Notre Dame
This game has absolutely no relevance on the national scene, but it was simply too intriguing to pass up. Duke is ranked 116th in the nation in total offense, yet the Blue Devils are the superior offensive team in this game. Notre Dame, despite its recent offensive outburst — two straight games of 300-plus yards! — still ranks last in the nation in total yards. The difference in this game is defense, and the Irish appear to be stronger on that side of the ball. They are giving up a lot of points (32.4 ppg, 95th), but they rank relatively high in total yards (372.5, 53rd) and yards per play (5.0, 38th). Duke, on the other hand, is giving up about 70 yards per game more and a full yard per play more than Notre Dame.
Notre Dame 24, Duke 17

Purdue (-2) at Indiana
The Hoosiers are 6–5 overall but are in danger of being left out of the bowl mix unless they pick up win No. 7 against their rivals from West Lafayette. IU let a great opportunity get away last weekend, losing 31–28 at Northwestern. The Hoosiers have lost four straight Big Ten games and have allowed 31 points or more in each game. The IU offense, so strong early in the year, has had trouble of late. The Hoosiers have averaged only 283.8 yards in their last four Big Ten games, including 298 against Northwestern, the Big Ten’s 10th-rated defense. Purdue is struggling as well, with consecutive losses to Penn State and Michigan State. Last week, the Boilermakers outgained MSU 517 to 316 but lost 48–31 in West Lafayette due in part to three Curtis Painter interceptions. Purdue has won five straight in this series, all by nine points or less. The streak, however, will end this year.
Indiana 38, Purdue 33

North Carolina State (+6) at Wake Forest
Has anyone noticed that Tom O’Brien’s new team (the Pack) is now only one game behind his old team (Boston College) in the ACC’s Atlantic Division standings? Last weekend, State won its fourth straight game, knocking off hated rival North Carolina 31–27 in Raleigh to even its overall record at 5–5 and league mark at 3–3. Wake Forest, which at one point had won six straight games, is only 6–4 overall and 4–3 in league play. The Deacons were pounded at Clemson 44–10 last weekend, their worst loss since a 47–17 defeat at Miami in the final game of the 2005 season. Despite having a winning record, Wake ranks in the bottom third of the ACC in several key statistics, including total offense and total defense. At this point of the season, NC State might be the better team.
NC State 30, Wake Forest 19

Oregon State (+2) at Washington State
Not many people are taking notice, but Oregon State is playing pretty good football of late. The Beavers have won four of five (all in conference play), with their only loss against USC on the road. This week, they will be without starting quarterback Sean Canfield once again. Lyle Moevao, a former junior college transfer, was okay in the win vs. Washington last week, completing 10-of-22 for 109 yards with one touchdown and one interception. As long as Yvenson Bernard is healthy enough to play, the Beaver offense should be in good shape. Last week, the underrated workhorse carried the ball 36 times for 149 yards, his sixth 100-yard game of the season. Like Oregon State, Wazzu is playing pretty well of late. The Cougars have won two of their last three games, with their only setback a 20–17 decision at Cal.
Oregon State 30, Washington State 20

Boston College (+7.5) at Clemson
The ACC Atlantic Division title is on the line this weekend in Clemson. Boston College hasn’t won since its improbable comeback at Virginia Tech three weeks ago. The Eagles’ national title hopes ended with a loss at home to Florida State, and then they dropped a second straight at Maryland last Saturday. BC’s running game has really been struggling, averaging a mere 46 yards over the last three games. While Boston College has been sliding, Clemson has been surging, winning four straight games to put it in position to win a division title. The CU running game has been strong, as usual, but the unsung hero of this offense is quarterback Cullen Harper, who leads the ACC in passing efficiency thanks, in part, to a sterling TD-to-INT ratio of 26-to-4. Matt Ryan has gotten all of the love, but you could make an argument that Harper deserves first-team All-ACC honors.
Clemson 30, Boston College 21

Vanderbilt (+11.5) at Tennessee
For the fifth time since 1982 — Vanderbilt’s last bowl season — the Commodores will play Tennessee needing only one win to become bowl-eligible. They lost each of the previous four meetings — two in Knoxville (1991, ’99) and two in Nashville (1984, ’94) — by an average score of 44–6. Vanderbilt is good enough to win in Knoxville, but the Commodores will need to play a near-perfect game. They must win the turnover battle, play well on special teams (which has been a problem) and convert scoring opportunities in the red zone. Unlike two years ago, when Vanderbilt snapped its 22-game losing streak to the Vols, Tennessee has plenty to play for. The Vols, who control their own destiny in the East, should be focused, motivated and ready to play.
Tennessee 31, Vanderbilt 17

Kentucky (+7.5) at Georgia
Georgia’s late-season resurgence continued last Saturday with an impressive 45–20 win over Auburn in Athens. After scoring a total of 34 points against Tennessee (in a loss) and Vanderbilt (in a 3-point win), the Bulldogs have exploded for an average of 43.7 over their last three games, wins over Florida, Troy and Auburn. Kentucky snapped a two-game losing streak with a 27–20 win at Vanderbilt, but the Cats’ once-mighty offense has been rather ordinary of late. Kentucky has averaged only 335 yards and 20.5 points in its last two games and has failed to top the 400-yard mark in four of the past five games. Vanderbilt, the SEC’s 11th-ranked offense, outgained UK 432 to 351 last Saturday. The Wildcats, who beat Georgia 24-20 in Lexington last fall, have never defeated the Dawgs in consecutive seasons. They have won two in a row vs. UGa, but those games (1949, ’56) were not in consecutive seasons. One more nugget of information: Kentucky has not won in Athens since 1977.
Georgia 30, Kentucky 20

West Virginia (-6.5) at Cincinnati
Protecting the ball will be the key to this game for West Virginia. When the Mountaineers aren’t fumbling it away, they are very, very difficult to slow down. Last week, the WVU offense had its way with Louisville, but three lost fumbles in the second half kept the Cardinals in the game. Cincinnati thrives on creating turnovers; the Bearcats rank third in the nation in turnover margin (plus-1.6 per game) and have two or more takeaways in seven games. Last week, Brian Kelly’s team rolled past UConn 27–3 at Nippert Stadium to improve its Big East mark to 3–2. The Bearcats need help, but they are still alive in the league title chase. WVU, on the other hand, controls its own destiny. The Mounties’ biggest hurdle will be this week at UC, but they also have home dates with UConn and rival Pittsburgh.
West Virginia 34, Cincinnati 26

Penn State (-2.5) at Michigan State
There are no title ramifications at stake, but this is a key game for both schools. For Penn State, it means the difference between a 5–3 or 4–4 Big Ten record. That’s not a huge swing, but a 4–4 mark gives the Lions their third non-winning league season in the last five years. Michigan State, under first-year coach Mark Dantonio, can do no better than a tie for ninth place with a loss this week. A win, however, would give the Spartans a 3–5 record and possibly vault them to a tie for sixth. For a coach trying to build a program, there is quite a bit of difference between 2–6 and 3–5. Michigan State has been painfully close to a few more wins. All five of the Spartans’ league losses have been by seven points or less, including two in overtime and one to Michigan in which MSU led by 10 points in the fourth quarter. I realize that wins and losses are all that matters, but the 2007 Spartans are better than their Big Ten record indicates.
Michigan State 28, Penn State 20    

Last week — 7–3 overall (7–3 against the spread)
Season — 77–33 overall (60–44-6 against the spread)

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