Goal Line Stand: Michigan, Carr need this one

Under gunmetal gray skies, with temperatures in the low-40s and the Rose Bowl on the line, Lloyd Carr will seek his redemption. Michigan hosts Ohio State in the conference curtain-dropper for each team, as usual. The nation will be watching; a trip to Pasadena goes to the winner, and if that weren’t enough, Carr’s legacy could well be at stake.

Back when Appalachian State smacked the Wolverines in the season-opener, there were calls for Carr’s immediate ouster, cries which were amplified a week later after Oregon came to town and humiliated the beef-footed U-M defenders. Carr was not fit to lead a program as prestigious as Michigan’s. His methods were antiquated, and his game preparation was inadequate. And those were the compliments.

In typical Carr fashion, he hit the bunker and declared an us-against-them state of emergency. True Michigan men, he said, would stay and fight. Others would call for a retreat. It’s a classic strategy. Either you’re with us, or you’re wrong. Forget that Michigan had lost five of its six games with the Buckeyes and five of its last six bowl appearances. It wasn’t Carr’s fault. The blame belonged to those who dared question him. He wasn’t retiring. No way.

Michigan rebounded to thump a putrid Notre Dame team. Penn State was next, and JoePa was nice enough to play as if Bo Schembechler were still prowling the U-M sideline. Michigan was 2-2. The next six weeks featured a parade of tomato cans that would have chagrined Joe Louis’ handlers. Suddenly, Michigan was ranked 12th in the BCS standings, and thoughts of a miracle, 10-win close to a season that had begun in Hindenburg fashion were in the front of every Wolverine’s maize-and-blue-addled mind.

Wisconsin changed that Saturday, but it didn’t really matter, because Carr’s tenure in Ann Arbor will be ultimately measured by this weekend’s game against OSU. That’s no surprise, since every Michigan coach stands next to the scarlet-and-gray yardstick, and every Buckeye boss deals with a similar Michigan tape measure. The reason this year’s game carries even more weight is that it could well be Carr’s last, or at least his last regular-season tilt. Even before Michigan gacked it up against the Mountaineers on Sept. 1, there was talk Carr would be leaving after this season, his 14th at the school.

Several factors could be considered clues. The first came a couple years ago, when Carr told reporters he had a definite departure date in mind. The smart money figured that was after this season, when stalwarts Chad Henne, Mike Hart and Jake Long would be leaving Ann Arbor. Then, this summer, Michigan changed a clause in Carr’s contract that guaranteed he would be paid $300,000 in deferred compensation, even if he retired following the 2007 campaign. He set up his assistants, too, assuring them paychecks through February of ’09. That was certainly telling. Finally, there has been plenty of talk that Carr is just done with the grind. He turned 62 last summer, and is the third-longest tenured coach in school history (behind Fielding Yost and Schembechler). Carr could well be done with the whole thing, and nobody would blame him. Spending a decade-and-a-half in one spot these days is rare in the college football universe, especially with alumni cranks like myself lobbing grenades into your office on a regular basis.

If Carr is indeed planning to step down, Saturday’s game becomes even more important than usual. And when you’re talking about a game that has become the sport’s (and, some say, sports’) biggest rivalry, that’s saying something. If he were to lose to the Buckeyes, that would be a streak of six in seven against Jim Tressel, a record which is Cooperesque and hardly the way to end one’s career. Carr needs this one, badly. His supporters can reference the 1997 national title all they want, but a loss will mean the Wolverines will have lost three or more games in eight of the subsequent 10 seasons. It will establish Carr as hopelessly behind Tressel, whose program will be established further as the conference’s best. In other words, a loss makes Carr look old and out of it, while making the Sweater Vest seem young and vital.

So, can Michigan do it? Absolutely, provided a few things go right. The biggest involves the health of Henne and Hart. Hart sat out the loss to Wisconsin, even though he wanted to play. Carr felt his high ankle sprain was insufficiently healed, and with the Big Ten title to be decided against the Buckeyes no matter what U-M did in Madison, the coach didn’t want to take any chances. If Hart plays at or near 100 percent, Michigan has a chance, although his comments about the OSU defense after last year’s loss have angered the Buckeyes. Henne played a quarter against the Badgers before appearing to re-injure the shoulder he separated Oct. 20 against Illinois. If he can’t play, Michigan is in big trouble, Hart or no Hart. Freshman Ryan Mallett has shown promise, but he makes significant errors every time he plays and is not ready at all for the crucible of the Ohio State showdown.

The next factor is psychological. Michigan’s loss to Wisconsin did nothing to derail its hopes for what became the season’s ultimate goal as soon as the App State nightmare ended. The Wolverines can still win the Big Ten title. Ohio State, meanwhile, had its dreams of a return trip to the BCS title game dashed by Illinois last week in Columbus, perhaps administering a crushing blow to its collective psyche. Can the Buckeyes readjust their sites down to the conference level? That’s a good question.

In the end, it would appear as if the Buckeyes have too much for Michigan, even in Ann Arbor. The U-M defense was blitzed by Wisconsin’s ordinary and mistake-prone attack, and Michigan’s offense will have trouble moving the ball against OSU’s D, especially without a mobile QB like Illinois’ Juice Williams. The upshot will be another Ohio State victory and perhaps a sad close to the Carr saga at Michigan.

Ohio State 27, Michigan 20

BUMPS AND RUNS:
Let’s hope Mr. Blackwell wasn’t watching the West Virginia-Louisville game, because those French’s Mustard Mountaineer uniforms were disgraceful.

The SEC as the best conference in football? Maybe. The Pac-10? Probably not. How about the Big 12, which enters this week with three teams in the BCS top five and Texas ranked 13th. Not too shabby.

Argument number 2,344 why the polls are ridiculous. Wisconsin beat Michigan last Saturday, and the Wolverines are ranked ahead of the Badgers in the Harris Interactive and USA Today balloting, even though the teams have the same records. Ridiculous.

Look out Hawaii, Boise State is on a roll. Everybody knows about Ian Johnson, but the Broncos have two other backs (Jeremy Avery and D.J. Harper) capable of rushing for 100 yards or more.

Navy 74, North Texas 62. Pure craziness — and no overtime.

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