Weekend On Tap: November 8 edition

The Pac-10's preseason game of the year will be played this week, and even though USC and Cal won't be battling for conference supremacy, it should be one of the week's best games. Mitch Light picks his winner in that and nine other games in his Weekend On Tap column.

Click on any game to get Athlon's preview or head on over to our conference notebooks to find a game preview for the rest of the 119 D-I teams. Also, be sure to check out this week's Goal Line Stand column and watch the Weekend Preview Video.

Connecticut (+6) at Cincinnati
Cincinnati played its way back into the Big East race with an impressive 38–33 win at South Florida. The Bearcats had an amazing eight takeaways, marking the third time this season they have forced at least six turnovers in a game. Cincinnati leads the nation with 34 takeaways, seven more than the No. 2 team. In its seven wins, UC has 33 takeaways and 11 giveaways; in their two losses, the Bearcats have forced only one turnover and committed a total of seven. Connecticut also knows a little something about winning the turnover battle. The Huskies rank fourth in the nation in turnover margin (+1.44), one spot behind Cincinnati (+1.67). I have picked against UConn practically every week. I’ve been wrong every time. Why change?
Cincinnati 27, UConn 20

Florida (-6.5) at South Carolina
Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina teams have made a habit of playing well when not much is expected — the Gamecocks have won five games outright as an underdog in the past two-plus years — but it’s hard to envision a South Carolina victory this Saturday night. Florida has had some troubles on defense, but the Gators have been remarkable on offense for much of the season. When things are going well — as they were last week against Vanderbilt — Florida looks nearly unstoppable. The Gators stormed out to a 35–7 lead at the half against a Vanderbilt team that had given up more than two touchdowns only once in its first five SEC games. Tim Tebow might still be a bit banged up, but he was nearly flawless throwing the ball against the Commodores. South Carolina, meanwhile is fresh off one of the worst defensive showings in school history. The Gamecocks were torched for 650 yards — including a stunning 542 on the ground — against a largely one-dimensional Arkansas team. The balanced Gator attack should have little trouble carving through the Carolina defense unless coordinator Tyrone Nix can figure out the Gamecocks’ woes in one short week.
Florida 34, South Carolina 24

Kansas (-5.5) at Oklahoma State
There are so many great stats that came out of Kansas’ epic beatdown of Nebraska last week. Here’s my favorite: Kansas scored more points through three quarters (69) than it did against the Cornhuskers during the entire decade of the 1980s (67). I mentioned above that I have picked against UConn at every turn this year. Well, I’ve been on the KU bandwagon all season and successfully picked the Jayhawks to beat Kansas State, Colorado and Texas A&M on the road. Well, all good things have to come to an end. I’m switching my allegiance this week from the beefy Mark Mangino to the manly Mike Gundy. Oklahoma State isn’t playing much defense, but the Cowboys are on quite an offensive roll.
Oklahoma State 41, Kansas 38

Auburn (+1.5) at Georgia
Both teams are 4–2 in the SEC, but the game really only has title implications for Georgia. Auburn only trails LSU by one game in the West, but LSU has already defeated Auburn, and with Arkansas at home and Ole Miss on the road on the schedule, the Bayou Bengals aren’t likely to lose. Georgia currently sits alone in first place in the East, one-half game ahead of Tennessee. The Vols control their own destiny, but if UT loses once (Arkansas and Vanderbilt at home, at Kentucky) and Georgia beats Auburn and Kentucky, then the Dawgs will be the team making the short trip to Atlanta for the SEC title game. Beating Auburn, however, will not be easy. The Tigers are one of the best, if not the best, three-loss teams in the country. And they know how to win in Athens, having won six of their last seven at Sanford Stadium. Make it eight of nine. 
Auburn 24, Georgia 16

Michigan (-2.5) at Wisconsin
The battered and bruised Wisconsin Badgers hung tough with top-ranked Ohio State in Columbus last weekend before succumbing in the fourth quarter. A 21–0 run by Ohio State created a 38–17 final score, but the Buckeyes had to battle to pick up their 10th win of the season. Wisconsin was without starters Luke Swan (receiver), P.J. Hill (tailback) and Andy Kemp (guard) against Ohio State, and the Badgers suffered some more injuries during the course of the game. Defensive tackle Jason Chapman and cornerback Allen Langford are out for the season with knee injuries. In addition, right tackle Eric Vanden Heuval injured his foot against the Buckeyes and his status is unknown for this weekend. If you factor in all of these injuries with Michigan’s eight-game winning streak, the Wolverines might seem to be the logical pick. They are. But I’m going with the Badgers at home.
Wisconsin 24, Michigan 20

Air Force (-3) at Notre Dame
For the ninth time this season, and the fifth time at home, Notre Dame finds itself as an underdog. And for good reason. The Irish have only one win and all but one of their eight losses has been by 13 points or more. While Notre Dame has been a colossal disappointment, Air Force has been one of the surprise teams in the nation. Picked to finish at or near the bottom of the Mountain West, the Falcons are 7–3 overall and 5–2 in the MWC under first-year coach Troy Calhoun. While Calhoun has implemented some new schemes in the Air Force attack, this team still excels at running the football. The Falcons rank fourth in the nation in rushing and 118th in passing. Navy, the team that beat Notre Dame last week, ranked first in rushing and 119th in passing. Air Force, unlike Navy, is playing well defensively. Calhoun’s club ranks 19th in the nation in scoring defense and has held four of its last five opponents to 21 points or less. For a point of reference, Navy beat Air Force in Annapolis 31–20 in late September.
Air Force 31, Notre Dame 20

USC (-4) at Cal
This was supposed to be the Game of the Year in the Pac-10. Instead, it has turned out to be just another intriguing matchup between two teams jockeying for position in a very good league. USC is tied for third with UCLA with a 4–2 record while Cal is tied for fifth with Oregon State at 3–3. The Bears snapped a three-game losing streak last weekend with a less-than-impressive 20–17 win over Washington State in Berkeley. This once-powerful offense has failed to score more than 21 points in each of its last three games. USC bounced back from its loss at Oregon to beat Oregon State 21–3 in a defensive slugfest at the Coliseum. The Trojans outgained Oregon State 287 to 176 and neither team scored in the second half. Neither Cal nor USC has lived up to expectations, but USC appears to be the better team. The offense is still a concern, but the defense has been consistently strong all season.
USC 28, Cal 17

Arkansas (pick ‘em) at Tennessee
No surprise here: this game will come down to the running game. Tennessee must somehow slow down Darren McFadden and Felix Jones enough to force quarterback Casey Dick to make some plays in the passing game. It can be done; Auburn held the Hogs to 67 yards rushing and forced Dick to put the ball in the air 26 times. Tennessee’s defense isn’t as stout as Auburn’s, but the Vols don’t need to hold Arkansas to under 100 yards rushing to win this game. On the other side of the ball, the Vols must commit to the running game. Arian Foster needs to get the ball 15 to 20 times, and Montario Hardesty must also be involved in the gameplan. This team is too talented in the backfield to be so inconsistent running the ball.
Tennessee 24, Arkansas 21

Illinois (-15) at Ohio State
Top-ranked Ohio State passed a big test last week, pulling away from Wisconsin on the strength of a 21-point fourth-quarter. Now, Illinois visits for the Buckeyes’ 2007 home finale. The Illini are 4–2 in the Big Ten and searching for their first winning conference season since 2001. Illinois can be explosive on offense, but this team is a bit too one-dimensional (sixth in rushing; 113th in passing) to pose too much of a threat to Ohio State, arguably the best defensive team in the nation. The Buckeyes have only given up more than 300 yards once this season — in a September win at Washington — and have only allowed three teams to rush for over 100 yards. If the Bucks take care of the ball — which they have done for the most part this season — and don’t let Juice Williams and Rashard Mendenhall go completely wild, then win No. 11 should come without too much trouble.
Ohio State 33, Illinois 14

Wake Forest (+9) at Clemson
This is a huge Coastal Division battle between a pair of 4–2 teams. Both Clemson and Wake trail Boston College by a half-game in the standings, but the Tigers are in much better shape. Wake lost to Boston College in Week 1, so the Deacs basically need to win their final two games and hope BC loses two of its final three. Clemson, on the other hand, controls its own destiny. The Tigers can win the division with wins (both at home) over Wake this week and Boston College next Saturday. The Deacs have enjoyed decent success against Clemson, but have only won once in their last six trips to Death Valley. Wake has made a habit of defying the odds, but Clemson looks like the better team right now.
Clemson 28, Wake Forest 17

Last week — 6–4 overall (2–5–3 against the spread)
Season — 70–30 overall (53–41–6 against the spread)

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