Weekend On Tap: November 1 edition

The first annual Nick Saban Bowl takes place in Tuscaloosa this weekend while Navy will try to end its 43-game losing streak to Notre Dame. Mitch Light predicts the outcome of these and eight other games in this week's On Tap column.

Click on any game to get Athlon's preview or head on over to our conference notebooks to find a game preview for the rest of the 119 D-I teams. Also, be sure to check out this week's Goal Line Stand column and watch the Weekend Preview Video.

Wisconsin (+15.5) at Ohio State
The Buckeyes flexed their muscles last Saturday night in State College, surging past Penn State with surprising ease. The defense was dominant, as expected, and the offense rolled up 453 total yards. Todd Boekman was efficient throwing the ball (19-of-26, 3 TDs, 1 INT), and Chris Wells recorded yet another 100-yard game. Wisconsin is fresh off its most impressive showing of the season, a dominating 33–3 win over Indiana. The Badgers’ defense, a disappointment for much of the 2007 season, limited a very good IU attack to 258 yards and kept the Hoosiers out of the end zone. This will be the fourth road trip for Wisconsin. The first three didn’t go so well — a 20–13 escape at UNLV, a 31–26 loss at Illinois and the 38–7 debacle at Penn State.
Ohio State 23, Wisconsin 10

Navy (+3.5) at Notre Dame
Could this be the year? Could this be the season that Navy snaps its losing streak — which has stretched to 43 years — against Notre Dame? I think so. True, this is far from Paul Johnson’s best Navy team. The Midshipmen are only 4–4 and lost 59–52 last week to Division I-AA power Delaware. But you know Navy is going to score some points. A rushing offense that ranks No. 1 in the nation (342.8 ypg) will find a way to score at least 20 points on Notre Dame. The question becomes: can the Notre Dame offense, ranked last in the nation in total yards, score on Navy, one of the worst defensive teams in college football? Probably, but not enough to win the game.
Navy 24, Notre Dame 23

Cincinnati (+4.5) at South Florida
Cincinnati and South Florida had their 15 minutes of fame earlier this season, but both teams have dropped off the national radar by losing two of their first three conference games. Cincinnati lost at home to Louisville and at Pittsburgh, while South Florida lost at Rutgers and at UConn. The Bulls are still unbeaten at home, with a 4–0 record that includes a win over West Virginia. Last week, Jim Leavitt’s club outgained UConn 440 to 353 and had an opportunity to tie the game late but was unable to punch the ball in from the 2-yard line with under a minute to play. Cincinnati’s defense, so strong earlier this year, has been torched the past three weeks, giving up 432 yards to Rutgers, 447 to Louisville and 427 to Pittsburgh. As long as South Florida protects the ball, the Bulls should get back on the winning track.
South Florida 28, Cincinnati 20

Missouri (-3.5) at Colorado
The Missouri offense keeps rolling. Last week, the Tigers topped the 40-point mark for the fifth time this season. They have scored 38 points or more in each of their seven wins and scored 31 in the loss to Oklahoma. Gary Pinkel and his staff, however, are a bit concerned with the defense. After limiting powerful Texas Tech to 10 points two weeks ago, Mizzou gave up 389 yards and 28 points to an Iowa State team that ranks last in the Big 12 in total offense and scoring offense. Now, the Tigers must forge ahead without safety Pig Brown, who ruptured his Achilles. Colorado is very quietly playing solid football. The Buffs lost a tight one at home to Kansas two weeks ago but bounced back with a nice win at Texas Tech. And this is also a team that beat Oklahoma earlier this season. The Buffs are getting solid production from underrated tailback Hugh Charles, who has rushed for 100 yards or more in five of the six games he has seen significant action. Expect another good fight from Colorado, but Missouri should escape Boulder with a win.
Missouri 34, Colorado 27

Arizona State (+7) at Oregon
The No. 3 and the No. 4 teams in the latest BCS standings get together for an enormous Pac-10 showdown in Eugene. The winner will remain in the hunt for a national title, while the loser will have to focus its efforts on simply winning the Pac-10. Arizona State passed its first true test last week, rallying (what else is new?) past California for a 31–20 win in Tempe. The Sun Devils got the job done on defense and in the running game. Tailbacks Keegan Herring (96 yards) and Dimtri Nance (85 yards and three TDs) picked up the slack after senior Ryan Torain was lost for the season with an injury. Starting quarterback Rudy Carpenter has a sprained thumb on his right (throwing) hand but is expected to get the start this week. Oregon’s big challenge this week is to play with the same emotion and enthusiasm it displayed last week in the win over USC.
Oregon 31, Arizona State 27

LSU (-7) at Alabama
In a league loaded with big games, great atmospheres and intriguing storylines, it doesn’t get any better than this — the first annual Nick Saban Bowl. Putting aside the coaching drama, this is a very big game in the SEC West. LSU and Alabama are tied atop the division standings with a 4–1 record, a half-game ahead of 4–2 Auburn. An LSU win all but assures the Tigers a spot in Atlanta; they would be up by a game in the loss column on both Alabama and Auburn and would have beaten both teams. Alabama, too, would be in great shape to reach the SEC title game with a win. In the most likely scenario, Alabama could even afford a loss to Auburn. If Alabama beats LSU, and Auburn beats Alabama and none of the three teams lose another game, Alabama would win the three-team tie-breaker by virtue of a better division record than Auburn and the head-to-head win over LSU. The Tigers are clearly the more talented team, but Alabama will be highly motivated. The Tide have exceeded expectations this season, and the players truly believe in their head coach. But believing and winning are two very different things. For all Alabama has accomplished so far, the Tide only have one SEC win over a team with a winning league record — Tennessee. It should be interesting, but in the end LSU’s superior talent will take over.
LSU 27, Alabama 17

Vanderbilt (+16) at Florida
We’ve entered the final month of the regular season and Florida, the defending national champs, and Vanderbilt, a team that hasn’t been to a bowl game since 1982, are tied in the loss column in the SEC East standings. So is Florida underachieving or Vanderbilt overachieving? Neither. The Gators are clearly one of the top teams in the league, but they are very young and have lost to three good teams, Auburn, LSU and Georgia. Some might be surprised that Vanderbilt is hanging around in the SEC East race, but it should be noted that the Commodores are a play away — a fumble late in a 20–17 loss to Georgia — from being 3–2 and tied for first in the loss column. Florida has not lost to Vanderbilt since 1988, but the Gators have had some trouble with the Dores in recent years. Two years ago, Jay Cutler & Co. took Florida into double overtime before falling 49–42, and last year a late Vanderbilt rally fell short in a 25–19 Florida victory in Nashville. I expect another closer-than-expected Gator win.
Florida 28, Vanderbilt 17

Wake Forest (-1) at Virginia
After living on the edge for much of the season — four wins by two points or less — Virginia finally lost a close game, falling 29–24 at North Carolina State. The Cavalier defense, which had given up 310 yards or less in its previous four games, surrendered 431 to the Wolfpack. At 4–1, Al Groh’s club is still very much alive in the Coastal Division standings, but the Cavs still have Wake, Miami and rival Virginia Tech on the slate. Wake Forest picked up its sixth straight win last Saturday, rolling past North Carolina 37–10 in Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons managed only 269 yard of offense but won the turnover battle 3 to 0. Once again, this team isn’t posting gaudy stats (90th in the nation in total offense; 43rd in total defense), but once again, the Deacs are winning games.
Wake Forest 21, Virginia 17

Purdue (+7) at Penn State
In typical Purdue fashion, the Boilermakers are beating the teams they are supposed to beat — usually in convincing fashion — and losing to the teams they are supposed to lose to. They are 7–2 this season, but their best win is either Iowa or Northwestern, both at home. Meanwhile, they failed their two tests, losing at Ohio State 23–7 and at Michigan 48–21. This week, Joe Tiller’s club has another opportunity to beat a good team. And I emphasize the good part. Penn State is a good team but not in the class of Michigan or Ohio State. If Purdue wants to be treated like one of the better teams in the Big Ten and not thrown into the middle of the pack, it needs to beat a good team. You can argue that the Boilermakers don’t have a true quality win since they beat Ohio State on the road 24–17 in the final month of the 2004 season. That should change this weekend.
Purdue 30, Penn State 21

Texas (-3) at Oklahoma State
This has been a very interesting series of late. From 2003-05, Oklahoma State outscored Texas 79–40 in the first half and led every game at the break. In the second half, Texas outscored OSU 118–0, winning each game by 19 points or more. Last year, Texas actually won both halves en route to a comfortable 36–10 win in Austin. Don’t expect a similar result this time around. The Longhorns are still the more talented team, but Oklahoma State, after a shaky first three weeks of the season, is living up to its preseason hype. The Cowboys are scoring a ton of points, with dual-threat quarterback Zac Robinson leading the way. If both of these teams stick to their strengths, don’t expect to see a ton of passing Saturday. Last week, Texas rushed for 329 yards in its comeback vs. Nebraska, while Oklahoma State ripped off 369 yards on the ground in a 41–39 win over Kansas State.
Oklahoma State 37, Texas 31

Last week — 9–1 overall (7–2–1 against the spread)
Season — 64–26 overall (51–36-3 against the spread)

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