Goal Line Stand: Evaluating the unbeatens

Fans of the BCS, in all their delusional grandeur, are still hoping for The Miracle. They do it every year, really, and you can’t blame them. If you were rooting for a system that had more flaws than a room full of recidivist criminals, you would be hoping for some divine help, too. The Miracle involves the survival of a pair of unblemished, legitimate national title contending teams (Hawaii need not apply), the better to justify their out-of-many-two philosophy and produce a “national championship game” they and their propaganda partners can sell as legitimate.

As of now, there are four teams with hopes of finishing their seasons unbeaten and advancing to the “championship” game: Ohio State, Boston College, Arizona State and Kansas. None was even expected to sniff their conference title at the beginning of the season, and yet here they are, still with a chance at the crystal trophy. Funny how things can change.

Although none is considered sexy enough to satisfy those who crave a big-time matchup, there is still the possibility two could end up undefeated. Heck, three could, creating an amusing argument as to the relative virtues of Arizona State vs. Kansas, or the Sun Devils vs. Boston College. Before we delve into that world of fantasy, let’s take a look at the likelihood any of them could finish unblemished.

Ohio State:
Record: 9-0
BCS Ranking: 1
Top-Shelf Wins: None
Remaining Games: Wisconsin, Illinois, at Michigan

Outlook: The Buckeyes’ stomped Penn State in Happy Valley last Saturday night, spoiling the “White-Out” and giving thousands of hearty tailgaters premature hangovers. They did it not just with their trademark defense, but also with an offense that has been surprisingly prone to the big play of late. OSU isn’t just a run-and-defend bunch, not when Todd Boeckman is looking downfield to Brian Robiskie and Ray Small. Ohio State should handle the Badgers and Illini, neither of which has the balance and depth to overcome the solid-across-the-board Bucks, much less in Columbus. As for the resurgent Wolverines, much will depend on the health of Mike Hart and Chad Henne. But even if they are ready for Michigan, remember that Sweater Vest owns U-M coach Lloyd Carr. Odds of Staying Perfect: 3-1.

Boston College:
Record: 8-0
BCS Ranking: 2
Top-Shelf Wins: Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Remaining Games: Florida State, at Maryland, at Clemson, Miami, ACC title game

Outlook: The Eagles were darn lucky VT defensive coordinator Bud Foster and head coach Frank Beamer decided to throttle back on the defensive pressure in the final minutes of the teams’ Oct. 18 game, allowing Matt Ryan time to throw. Although BC escaped Blacksburg, it proved itself vulnerable to pressure in the passing game, something its future opponents will no doubt try to exploit. None of the final four rivals is all that imposing, although Clemson has begun to show signs of life again and hosts the Eagles Nov. 17. Boston College is a good team on both sides of the ball, but it has a long road home. Ryan is excellent, but this team wasn’t built for 13-0. Odds of Staying Perfect: 8-1.

Arizona State:
Record: 8-0
BCS Rank: 4
Top-Shelf Wins: California
Remaining Games: at Oregon, at UCLA, USC, Arizona

Outlook: Hats off to new ASU coach Dennis Erickson, who has turned the Sun Devils from a pass-happy offensive machine into a balanced team that can turn up the D when it needs to and never gives up. The Sun Devils are the masters of the comeback and proved that last week against California. Game two of the late-season gantlet comes Saturday at Oregon, which is working hard to prove it’s the best of the Pac-10. Arizona State is strong, but it doesn’t have enough to stop the Ducks in Eugene. Even if it does, it must still get past the Trojans. Great job, coach, but it’s time for a slap in the face. Odds of Remaining Perfect: 12-1.

Kansas:
Record: 8-0
BCS Rank: 8
Top-Shelf Wins: None
Remaining Games: Nebraska, at Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Missouri (in Kansas City), Big 12 title game

Outlook: After his Texas A&M Aggies were dumped by the Jayhawks, 19-11, at home, coach Dennis Franchione declared that Kansas is for real. We’ll see. KU still hasn’t beaten a good team, and though it doesn’t have to face any killers the rest of the way, except perhaps Missouri, Kansas isn’t good enough to survive its remaining four regular-season games and a likely Big 12 showdown with Oklahoma. Good scheduling, the strong play of QB Todd Reesing and a surprisingly stout defense have served the Manginos well, but Nebraska won’t be easy Saturday, the following week’s trip to Oklahoma State has nightmare potential, and meeting Missouri in Kansas City is fraught with peril. In other words, don’t expect to see the ‘Hawks in New Orleans next January. Odds of Staying Perfect: 25-1.

GAME OF THE WEEK: Arizona State at Oregon
It has been a great ride for the Sun Devils, and that win over California last week sure was fun. But this is the end of the line for ASU, which has an improved defense but not enough to take care of the Ducks. Get behind in this one, fellas, and Oregon won’t be letting up on the throttle. The loudest crowd in the Pac-10 delights in Oregon’s taking one step closer to the Rose Bowl, thanks to Heisman QB Dennis Dixon and big-game runner Jonathan Stewart.
Oregon 30, Arizona State 21

BUMPS AND RUNS:
Interim AD Tom Osborne may have tried to backpedal from his comments he made last week about “the new coaching staff,” when he was asked about whether Nebraska would resurrect its great walk-on program next year, but the message is clear: Bill Callahan is gone.

Also gone: A&M coach Dennis Franchione. It’s one thing to do a little side business if you’re winning big, but this season could end 6-6 for the Aggies.

When you’re talking about the teams which could end up in the BCS title game, don’t forget about West Virginia, which is 7-1 and should coast to an 11-1 finish in the marshmallow-soft Big East.

Kudos to Mississippi State coach Sylvester Croom, who has his Bulldogs 5-4 and almost bowl-eligible. That ought to quiet those who felt he should be canned, shouldn’t it? Not so for Ole Miss boss Ed Orgeron, who is likely gone after this year’s disaster.

Upset special for the week: Troy over Georgia. Really. The Bulldogs could be napping after last week’s big win, and Troy is tough.

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