Weekend On Tap: October 25 edition

There's important games all over the country this weekend including a crucial ACC matchup on Thursday night and four Pac-10 powerhouses matching up against each other. Mitch Light predicts what will happen in 10 of the weekend's best games.

Click on any game to get Athlon's preview or head on over to our conference notebooks to find a game preview for the rest of the 119 D-I teams. Also, be sure to check out this week's Goal Line Stand column and watch the Weekend Preview Video.

Boston College (+3) at Virginia Tech  (Thursday)
Boston College is ranked second in the nation by the AP, the Coaches poll, the Harris Interactive poll and, most important, the BCS. But raise your hand if you really, really believe BC is better than LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, Florida, etc. The Eagles will have an opportunity to prove their worth over the final month of the season, with road trips to Virginia Tech, Maryland and Clemson and home games against Florida State and Miami. If the Eagles make it through that schedule unscathed, they will likely find themselves in the national title game. First things first, however. Can Boston College survive a trip to Blacksburg, where they lost 30–10 two years ago? I say yes. Virginia Tech, which has won five straight since the debacle at LSU, will be the popular pick, but the Hokies still have plenty of issues on offense. And as of Wednesday, Tech still didn’t know if freshman quarterback Tyrod Taylor (high ankle sprain) will be able to play. There are no quarterback concerns at Boston College, where Matt Ryan is playing the position as well as anyone in the nation not named Tim Tebow.
Boston College 20, Virginia Tech 14

North Carolina (+6) at Wake Forest
Since an alarmingly uncompetitive 37–10 loss at South Florida last month, North Carolina has been playing pretty good football. The Heels lost at Virginia Tech 17–10 (and outgained the Hokies 306 to 241), beat Miami 33–27 and lost to South Carolina 21–15 (and outgained the Gamecocks 398 to 282). Wake has bounced back from its 0–2 start by winning five straight. Redshirt freshman Josh Adams has emerged at the tailback position, with 271 yards on 35 carries over the past two weeks. This is a key game for the Deacs, who must play three of their final four on the road. A win makes Jim Grobe’s club bowl eligible for the second straight year, but this team has higher goals than simply playing in a bowl.
Wake Forest 27, North Carolina 23

West Virginia (-6) at Rutgers
With the exception of that one sloppy Friday night in Tampa, West Virginia has been as good as advertised this season. The Mountaineers have scored a minimum of 38 points in each of their six wins and have won those six by an average of 30.8 points. And while the schedule hasn’t been overly taxing, they have thumped some decent teams — Maryland (31–14), East Carolina (48–7) and Mississippi State (38–13). But they did, of course, fail in their stiffest test, at South Florida. That is the same USF team that lost at Rutgers last Thursday night. The Scarlet Knights have been getting great play from junior tailback Ray Rice, who is averaging 142.7 yards per game and leads the nation with 204 rushing attempts. One thing to keep an eye on in this game is the health of both quarterbacks. Rutgers’ Mike Teel is nursing a thumb injury on his throwing hand, while WVU’s Pat White has been dealing with a shoulder and chest injury. Both are expected to play, but it’s worth noting that the Mountaineers have the more proven backup in Jarrett Brown, who led West Virginia to a win over Rutgers last season.
West Virginia 31, Rutgers 21

South Florida (-4.5) at Connecticut
Connecticut has to be the least-respected one-loss team in the nation. The Huskies are 6–1 with wins over Duke, Maine, Temple, Pittsburgh, Akron and Louisville. Beating Louisville was impressive — even if the Huskies did get some help from the officials — but we will find out how good (or mediocre) this team is very soon. South Florida visits Storrs this weekend, and the Huskies still have dates with Rutgers, Cincinnati and West Virginia. UConn has been getting it done on defense, allowing an average of 272.3 yards and 12.7 points per game. But those numbers have been accumulated against a who’s who of bad offensive teams; with the exception of Louisville, every Division I-A team UConn has played is ranked 89th or lower in the nation in total offense. South Florida isn’t an offensive power, but the Bulls have plenty of playmakers who should be able to score more than enough points to win this game.
South Florida 28, UConn 13

Kansas (-2.5) at Texas A&M
Despite posting an impressive win at Kansas State two weeks ago, the Jayhawks still had plenty of doubters. But Mark Mangino’s club passed another test last weekend, edging Colorado 19–14 in Boulder. Kansas had season-lows in both points and yards (333) but prevailed thanks to yet another impressive defensive effort. The Jayhawks, at 3–0, are the only Big 12 team in either division without a league loss. Texas A&M, at 3–1, is still alive in the South Division race, but the Aggies have a brutal closing schedule — Kansas and Texas at home sandwiched around trips to Oklahoma and Missouri. Beating the Jayhawks is an absolute must. That, however, will not be an easy task. I’ve been on the KU bandwagon all season, and this is not the time to abandon Mangino and the boys.
Kansas 20, Texas A&M 17

South Carolina (+3) at Tennessee
As bad as it seems at South Carolina and Tennessee after each team’s respective debacle last weekend, both clubs are still very much in the hunt for the SEC East title. South Carolina is in a three-way tie for first place at 3–2 while the Vols are a half-game back at 2–2. These two teams, however, won’t remain in the race much longer unless they start playing better. South Carolina has regressed offensively in recent weeks. The Gamecocks were shut out in the second half in a win at North Carolina two weeks ago and were limited to 282 yards and six points in the loss at home to Vanderbilt. The problem at Tennessee last week was defense. The Vols were torched for 510 yards and 41 points in a lopsided loss at Alabama. They had no answer for the Tide’s passing attack; John Parker Wilson completed 32-of-46 passes for 363 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Alabama became the third team this season to score at least 40 points against Tennessee. This is a tough call. I’ll go with Tennessee at home. The Vols are 3–0 at Neyland Stadium, including the impressive 35–14 victory over Georgia three weeks ago.
Tennessee 22, South Carolina 17

Georgia (+9) vs. Florida (Jacksonville)
For the first time since 1989, both Florida and Georgia have at least two league losses heading into their annual clash. But in this crazy season in the SEC, both teams are still very much alive in the chase for the Eastern Division title. At 3–2, Georgia and Florida are tied with South Carolina atop the division standings. A win guarantees nothing, but the team that loses this game will have a difficult time reaching the SEC title game in Atlanta. Right now, Florida is in the best shape of the five teams with two losses because both of the Gators’ defeats came against SEC West teams, giving Urban Meyer’s club an advantage in tie-breaking scenarios. In addition, Florida has an advantage because the Gators appear to have the best team in the SEC East. Their two losses are to two very good teams — Auburn and LSU — by a combined seven points.
Florida 31, Georgia 26

Ohio State (-4) at Penn State
Ohio State isn’t getting a ton of respect for being the No. 1 team in the nation, but these Buckeyes are pretty darned good, especially on defense. Ohio State leads the nation in total defense and scoring defense, and while the schedule hasn’t been very tough, the Bucks have played two very good offensive teams. They shut out Purdue for the first 57 minutes of the game and limited a Michigan State team that was averaging 466 yards to 185 yards and kept the Spartans out of the end zone. This week’s opponent, Penn State, has been playing better on offense of late, but I just don’t think the Lions have enough firepower to score on Ohio State. Rodney Kinlaw has been running the ball well, and quarterback Anthony Morelli has cut down on his turnovers, but Penn State does not have a player who ranks in the top 15 in the Big Ten in receptions per game or receiving yards per game.
Ohio State 20, Penn State 7

Cal (+3) at Arizona State
Arizona State has been one of the surprise teams in the nation, cruising to a 7–0 start in the first year of the Dennis Erickson era. The Sun Devils have only had one game decided by 10 points or less, a 23–20 victory at Washington State. Now, however, comes the real test for this club. With California, Oregon, UCLA and USC still on the slate, we’ll find out if this team is a contender or pretender. We thought Cal was a contender, but the Bears have lost two games in a row to drop out of the national title hunt and into the mess that is the top half of the Pac-10. Taking care of the ball is of paramount importance for Jeff Tedford’s club. In their five wins, the Bears had 15 takeaways and four giveaways; in their two losses, they committed seven turnovers and forced only three.
Arizona State 31, Cal 27

USC (+3) at Oregon
USC finds itself as an underdog in a conference game for the first time since the 2001 regular-season finale against UCLA. The Trojans won that game 27–0 and have won all but five of their Pac-10 games since. This week, however, the Trojans face a huge test against a powerful Oregon team. The Ducks, who have scored 50 points or more in four games this season, are the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense. Dennis Dixon gets most of the pub — and he deserves it — but Jonathan Stewart is emerging as one the top running backs in the nation. The junior shredded Washington last week for 251 yards and has topped the 100-yard mark in all but two games. With runningmate Jeremiah Johnson out for the year, Stewart’s role down the stretch will be huge. USC is expected to go with Mark Sanchez at quarterback once again. He was a little shaky in a close win over Arizona but was sharp (four TDs, no INTs) in the 38–0 victory at Notre Dame. Prior to the win at ND, USC had combined to score 70 points in its previous three games; that is the lowest three-game total for the Trojans since the 2002 season.
Oregon 27, USC 23

Last week — 7–3 overall (6–4 against the spread)
Season — 55–25 overall (44–34-2 against the spread)

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