Fantasy Minute: Week 8 booms and busts

I’m going to put my belief that matchups trump past performance when it comes to picking fantasy starters to the supreme test this week. I’m benching a guy who had nearly 200 yards of rushing and receiving offense last game. A few weeks ago when Cadillac Williams went down with a season-ending knee injury, I grabbed Tampa RB Earnest Graham off waivers. Of course, as is usually the case when you think you’ve out-smarted the rest of your league, Graham hadn’t done much – until last game. He racked up 92 yards rushing against Detroit and had 13 catches for 99 yards too. And, now I want to bench the guy???

Here’s why.

Taking nothing away from Graham’s running last week, but I think his receiving stats were inflated because of the defensive matchup. The Lions play their DBs deep to prevent the big play and that typically opens up the underneath stuff and this is where Graham capitalized. Unlike Detroit, Jacksonville, this week’s opponent, doesn’t play the Cover 2 defense and they’re also especially tough against the run. One more negative. I also suspect that Tampa will look to involve newly acquired RB Michael Bennett more and any up tick in his action will come at Graham’s expense.

I’ll either be a fool or a genius.

Booms and busts for Week 8...
Buffalo’s RB Marshawn Lynch has yet to crack the 100-yard mark, but I like his chances against a Jets’ defense that has allowed four such rushers in six games.

Unless he suffers from jet-lag from his flight over to London, Eli Manning should have a terrific opportunity against a Miami secondary that has had a nightmare of a season. The Dolphins lost a starting safety to a season-ending injury last week.

This one may be a reach, but I’m looking for a struggling Marc Bulger to capitalize against a Cleveland defense that has given up 17 aerial scores so far. Reach number two for the Rams might be TE Randy McMichael. The Browns love to double and triple team the opponent’s primary receiver leaving the tight end to be covered by a slow linebacker.

Marques Colston has been a tenuous fantasy play this season, but I like him even less against San Francisco’s shut down CB Nate Clements. It’s no coincidence that guys like Plaxico Burress (43 yards), Anquan Boldin (22) and Torry Holt (74) struggled against the Niners.

I just can’t imagine that RB Kenny Watson will see a repeat of his 2-TD, 130-yard performance against the Steelers this week.

Cleo Lemon has been a surprise while replacing the injured Trent Green (6 TDs in two games), but I think the Giants’ tough defensive front will hold him in check. Lemon’s receiving corps also took a hit when Miami dealt Chris Chambers to the Chargers.

Laurence Maroney was healthy enough to play last week, but only saw 6 carries since the Pats were up on Miami 42-7 by halftime. While he might see more action against the Redskins this week, I still think Maroney will share some of the load with Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans. Washington isn’t easy to run on either. The Skins are yielding just 3.5 yards per carry.

Watch out for TE Chris Cooley in the matchup with New England. The Pats have a way of taking the opposition’s best weapon away. In contests with Cleveland and Dallas, the Patriots limited Kellen Winslow to 49 yards and Jason Witten to 47.

Sneak pick of the week...
Kevin Jones might merit more consideration this week even though it might appear he has a tough matchup against the Bears. Chicago has yielded at least 120 yards on the ground in each of their last three games including a whopping 311 to the Vikings two weeks ago.

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