World Series Preview: Boston vs. Colorado

Preview
Well, this is certainly not the World Series anyone expected coming out of spring training more than six months ago. Not that seeing the Red Sox here is that surprising, but no one had the Rox on the postseason radar in April. This series matches the hottest team in baseball against the best team. Are the Rox really a team of destiny? Or will the Sox, the best team from wire-to-wire this season close the deal?

The teams actually match up well. Both teams have a No. 1 starter capable of shutting down opponents, and a good — but certainly hittable — remainder of the rotation. The task for those starters will be negotiating the No. 3 and 4 hitters in both lineups. David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez have proven they can carry the Sox, as have Todd Helton and Matt Holliday for Colorado. Both bullpens will be asked to get crucial outs, and Colorado has a few more reliable arms given the struggled of Eric Gagne and Javier Lopez for Boston. But Jonathan Papelbon closing for Boston is a tremendous trump card.

MLB must be breathing a sigh of relief after noting the long-range weather forecast. Every game should be played at about 50 degrees. Residents of Boston and Denver can tell you, it could be much worse.

How the Red Sox Can Win
Getting production from Manny and Big Papi is all but a given. Having Dustin Pedroia get hot is a bonus that can ignite the offense in a hurry. J.D. Drew has been silent for most of the postseason, but sparked the team in Game 7 with the first-inning two-out grand slam. Boston has a deep lineup that can give pitchers fits with quality at-bats all the way through. Once they wear down Colorado’s starters, the bullpen will be asked to carry a heavy load. Even if the offense is not exploding, the Red Sox can win by the starters getting straight to Mike Timlin and Papelbon. Asking the bullpen to get more than six outs puts Boston at risk.

How the Rockies Can Win
By staying hot. This team didn’t win 21 of their last 22 games by taking time off. Ostensibly, taking eight days off is not the recipe for staying hot. Colorado has been wining because the lineup has been hot, not because this is the best lineup in the national League. But these Rox have been scary hot over the last month. The Rockies’ pitchers benefit from a terrific defense, especially up the middle. Inducing double plays will be critical. If Jeff Francis outpitches Josh Beckett in Game 1 (as he did back on June 14 at Fenway), we’ve got a series. The Rockies’ bullpen has been tough, but manager Clint Hurdle will find dictating matchups much more difficult against this deep lineup. But taking Ortiz’ bat or Kevin Youkilis’ glove out of the lineup for the games in Colorado leaves Boston vulnerable. When the Rockies visited Fenway in June, they outscored the Red Sox 20-5 handing Beckett his first loss of the season and knocking Schilling around with nine hits and six runs in five innings. Tim Wakefield opened the series with a 2-1 win over Aaron Cook. Wakefield will not pitch in this series. Cook, who hasn't pitched since August, is slated to make his first postseason appearance in Game 4. The Rockies will not be intimidated by Fenway’s Green Monster.

Players to Watch
For the Red Sox it will be simple. Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis will set the table for David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. When the series moves to Denver, expect J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo to pick up the slack from whoever manager Terry Francona decides to sit, Ortiz or Youkilis. Drew is a career .368 hitter at Coors with a .467 on-base percentage. Lugo has hit .391 in the rarified air...The first time Daisuke Matsuzaka has faced a team this season, he has a 1.20 WHIP and 3.15 ERA and strikes out 9.6 per nine innings. None of the Rockies have ever faced Dice-K.

Athlon Sports Says…
September and October have been the Rockies’ months, no doubt. But this is Boston’s year. (Well maybe, 2004 was really Boston’s year.) With the Boston rotation having a slight edge over Colorado, the deciding factor will be the deep lineup. Boston has tougher outs at the bottom of the order than does Colorado. Colorado will get the series back to Boston, but Sox will crush Rox in six.