Weekend On Tap: October 18 edition

Three of the biggest games this week all take place in the SEC, but there's plenty of good college football to go around. Mitch Light predicts the winners of 10 big games in this week's On Tap column.

Click on any game to get Athlon's preview or head on over to our conference notebooks to find a game preview for the rest of the 119 D-I teams. Also, be sure to check out this week's Goal Line Stand column and watch the Weekend Preview Video.

South Florida (-2.5) at Rutgers (Thursday night)
If you simply look at these two teams’ resumes, there is no sound reason to pick Rutgers to win this game. South Florida, 6–0 and ranked No. 2 in the BCS standings, has played two good teams and won both games — at Auburn and vs. West Virginia at home. Rutgers, on the other hand, has played one decent team (Maryland) and one good team (Cincinnati), both at home, and the Knights lost both games. RU’s best win to date is a 41–24 victory over Navy at home. So why is Rutgers the pick? Just a hunch. Need a better reason than that? How about this fool-proof stat: Rutgers is 1–0 on Thursday nights at home against top 5 teams in the Greg Schiano era.
Rutgers 24, South Florida 20

Texas Tech (-3.5) at Missouri
This is a pivotal battle between two teams that are still very much alive in the title chase in their respective divisions of the Big 12. Missouri lost a tough one at Oklahoma last week, but the Tigers proved that they can play with one of the elite teams in the nation. Mizzou outgained OU 428 to 384, with Chase Daniel responsible for 393 of those yards (361 passing, 32 rushing). Even though it’s early in the league race, Missouri doesn’t want to fall too far behind Kansas, which at 2–0 is the only undefeated team in either division. The Jayhawks, who don’t play Texas or Oklahoma, have the kindest schedule of the contenders. Texas Tech is coming off a dominating 35–7 win over Texas A&M. The Red Raiders have won their two Big 12 home games by a combined score of 77–24 but lost at Oklahoma State 49–45 the only time they have ventured outside the state. Since switching defensive coordinators, Tech has given up a total of 31 points in three games. But two of those games were against Northwestern State and Iowa State. Missouri will be the first big test for interim defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill and his unit.
Missouri 31, Texas Tech 27

Florida (-6.5) at Kentucky
Florida has to be thrilled to have Auburn and LSU in its rear view mirror. The Gators averaged over 500 yards in their first four games but were held to 312 by Auburn and 314 by LSU, the two best defenses in the SEC — and maybe the entire nation. Kentucky is much-improved on defense, but this is still a team that will give up a ton of yards. The Cats allowed 453 vs. Kent State, 467 to Louisville, 495 to Arkansas and 403 to LSU. In the Kent State game, dual-threat quarterback Julian Edelman had a big day, rushing for 135 yards and throwing for 129. While Edelman is a fine quarterback, it’s fair to say that Tim Tebow offers a bit more of a challenge. Kentucky has proved its doubters wrong all season, from the win over Louisville (before we knew Louisville wasn’t very good) to the gutsy road win at Arkansas to the landmark victory over LSU. Do the Cats have another surprise in them? Can they complete what would be the greatest two-week stretch in school history? The guess here is no. Florida, with two weeks to prepare, will come in with a great offensive gameplan and put up too many points on the UK defense. 
Florida 41, Kentucky 31

Wake Forest (-3) at Navy
After a sluggish start that featured losses to Boston College and Nebraska, as well as a closer-than-it-should-have-been win over Army, Wake Forest has righted the ship. Starting with the improbable comeback vs. Maryland, the Deacs have won three straight, all in league play, to improve their record to 4–2. But now comes a tough trip to Navy. The Midshipmen, too, have won three in a row, with wins over Duke, Air Force and Pittsburgh. To no one’s surprise, Navy leads the nation in rushing and has topped the 300-yard mark in four of six games, including a 521-yard effort against Ball State (in a loss). Wake has been solid against the run (22nd in the nation), but the Deacs have not played a team that ranks among the top 50 in the nation in rushing. I like Navy in a mild upset.
Navy 38, Wake Forest 33

Miami (+6.5) at Florida State
Has there been less buzz for a Miami-FSU game in the past three decades? Both teams are 1–2 in the ACC and are basically out of the conference title chase at the mid-point of the season. FSU appeared to be on the right track after winning at Colorado, then beating Alabama in Jacksonville and NC State in Tallahassee, but the Seminoles lost at Wake Forest last Thursday. Xavier Lee has given the FSU offense a nice boost, but he threw two interceptions in the loss at Wake. Miami has been dreadful since its eye-opening win over Texas A&M. The Canes struggled to beat Duke at home, lost at North Carolina (it’s still the Heels’ only I-A win) and lost at home to Georgia Tech. Against Tech, Miami mustered only 56 yards passing and gave up 264 yards rushing (204 to Tashard Choice). It’s shocking how mediocre both of these teams are.
Florida State 17, Miami 13

Kansas (-3.5) at Colorado
Kansas has worked its way up from preseason afterthought to the top 20 in all of the polls. The Jayhawks have posted some gaudy offensive stats against mostly inferior competition. But Mark Mangino’s club did pass its only test of the season, winning at rival Kansas State two weeks ago. That one win was enough to convince me that this KU team is for real. The Jayhawks are doing all of the things they need to do to win games: converting on third down (41 percent), scoring in the red zone (90 percent) and taking care of the football (plus-9 for the year). Colorado is much-improved this season (see its shocking win over Oklahoma for more details), but Kansas shows no signs of slowing down.
Kansas 30, Colorado 20

Tennessee (+1) at Alabama
Alabama is 5–2 overall and 3–1 in the league, but the Tide will face its most difficult challenge of the season, according to head coach Nick Saban. “Tennessee, I think, may be the best team we’ve played relative to how they’re playing now and the way they’ve played the last three games,” Saban said. Those three games have been wins over Arkansas State, Georgia and Mississippi State. What we don’t know is if Tennessee’s improved production — on both sides of the ball — is due to a softer recent schedule or if it can be attributed to the fact that the Vols are simply playing better football. The guess here is the latter.
Tennessee 27, Alabama 21

Auburn (+11.5) at LSU
Last week, Kentucky proved that you can move the ball and score some points on the LSU defense, but Kentucky also boasts one of the top offenses in the country. Auburn’s offense, on the other hand, is rather ordinary. The Tigers have scored more than 23 points in only one of five games vs. BCS competition and are coming off a nine-point effort against an Arkansas defense that had struggled in its two previous SEC games. What Auburn is doing well of late is taking care of the football. Quarterback Brandon Cox was intercepted six times in the first three games but has only thrown one pick in the last four contests. In addition, the Tigers have only lost three fumbles during their four-game winning streak; they lost five in their two losses. With the level of play being so high from both of these defenses, this game figures to be extremely low-scoring. Turnovers are always important, but mistakes will be magnified in this game. Neither team can afford to give the opposition a short field to work with. A cheap touchdown could be the difference in what figures to be a very tight game.
LSU 14, Auburn 10

Michigan (-2.5) at Illinois
Look who’s back in the national rankings. It’s the Michigan Wolverines, left for dead back in September after opening the season with a stunning loss to Appalachian State and a surprisingly one-sided loss to Oregon. The player responsible for keeping Michigan afloat has been tailback Mike Hart, who leads the nation in both total rushing yards (1,078) and yards per game (154.0). Illinois has been solid against the run (27th in the nation, 106.4 ypg), and those numbers are not skewed by a soft schedule. All but one of the Illini’s seven opponents have been from BCS conferences (though offensively-challenged Syracuse was on the slate). Illinois is 3–0 at home this season, including program-building wins over Penn State and Wisconsin. This week, however, the Illini’s Champaign magic could very well run dry. Michigan is on a roll, and Hart might just be the best player in the nation.
Michigan 20, Illinois 17

Oregon (-11.5) at Washington
This is an important game for both teams for different reasons. Oregon is still very much in the thick of the Pac-10 race despite its loss to Cal. Washington simply needs to stop the bleeding. After jumping out of the gate with a 2–0 record, the Huskies have lost four straight, including three conference games. The competition has been very difficult, but Washington fans don’t want excuses; they want wins. If the Huskies can somehow steal a win against Oregon, it’s possible that they could still end the season with a winning league record. With Arizona, Stanford, Oregon State and Washington State still on the schedule, there are some wins to be had. But first things first. Can Jake Locker & Co. take down a very good Oregon team? Probably not, but I think this game will be close deep into the fourth quarter. The Huskies have played well at home for the most part, beating Boise State and losing to Ohio State and USC (by only three points).
Oregon 34, Washington 23

Last week — 7–3 overall (6–4 against the spread)
Season — 48–22 overall (38–30-2 against the spread)

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