Weekend On Tap: October 11 edition

Another solid week of college football kicks off this weekend, highlighted by Missouri at Oklahoma and LSU at Kentucky. Mitch Light analyzes these and eight other games in his Weekend On Tap column.

Click on any game to get Athlon's preview or head on over to our conference notebooks to find a game preview for the rest of the 119 D-I teams. Also, be sure to check out this week's Goal Line Stand column and watch the Weekend Preview Video.

Boston College (-13.5) at Notre Dame
Yes, Notre Dame finally won a game. But have you looked at the stats? The Irish were outgained by UCLA 282 to 142 and scored only one offensive touchdown despite winning the turnover battle 7–0. Notre Dame’s three scoring drives went for four yards (field goal), 29 yards (FG) and two yards (touchdown). Credit the Irish defense for its outstanding performance, but the offense is still a major concern. Scoring points and moving the ball up and down the field has not been an issue at Boston College. Led by savvy senior quarterback Matt Ryan, the Eagles are averaging 454.8 yards and 35.8 points per game. Boston College has also been strong defensively, especially against the run. Expect the Eagles to load up to stop the Irish ground attack and force Jimmy Clausen to beat them downfield.
Boston College 32, Notre Dame 10

Louisville (+10.5) at Cincinnati
Louisville has dominated this series of late, winning four straight overall and eight of nine dating back to 1998. The low point for the Bearcats was a 70–7 loss in Louisville in 2004. Now, three short years later, Cincinnati is the favorite, the team with a perfect 6–0 record and the team with dreams of a BCS bowl. The Bearcats validated their fast start last Saturday night with a nationally televised 28–23 win at Rutgers. Meanwhile, Louisville’s disastrous 2007 season took another bad turn with a 44–35 loss at home to Utah. The Cardinal defense was gashed for 582 total yards, including 260 on the ground. This week, U of L must deal with a balanced UC offense that ranks second in the Big East in rushing and third in passing. Quarterback Ben Mauk has posted back-to-back 250-yard games and is playing the best football of his career.
Cincinnati 37, Louisville 30

Missouri (+10.5) at Oklahoma
Chase Daniel and the Missouri Tigers made a statement last Saturday night, rolling past Nebraska 41–6 on national television. But as we’ve seen this year, scoring points against Nebraska hasn’t been too difficult. Can Daniel and that potent MU attack solve the Oklahoma defense? The Sooners rank 11th in the nation in total defense, and they have faced a solid schedule that includes Texas, Colorado, Miami and a Tulsa team that ranks third in the nation in total offense. Mizzou will have to score some points, because the Tigers figure to give up some, as well. The MU defense is improved but is still giving up over 400 yards per game. Oklahoma boasts a tremendous collection of running backs and a quarterback in Sam Bradford who has played very well in all but one game this season. Missouri has not won in Norman since 1963. The Tigers will put up a good fight, but Oklahoma has a little bit too much on both sides of the ball.
Oklahoma 34, Missouri 28

LSU (-10) at Kentucky
With the epic showdown against Florida now behind them, the LSU Tigers must focus on the second half of the regular season. They are the unanimous No. 1 team in the nation, and they likely will be favored by at least a touchdown in their remaining games. But as we have learned all too often this season, no team is immune to the upset. Kentucky will present a new challenge for what has been a dominating LSU defense. The Wildcats boast arguably the best collection of skill position players in the SEC. Andre’ Woodson struggled in the loss at South Carolina, but he is a proven commodity who has thrown only two interceptions in his last 10 games. But like any quarterback, Woodson will struggle if he doesn’t have ample time to distribute the ball. So if the Kentucky offensive line cannot protect its senior quarterback, it’s hard to envision UK having too much success moving the ball.
LSU 34, Kentucky 20

Auburn (+3) at Arkansas
Auburn is playing its best football of the season of late, with a stunning victory over Florida in Gainesville and a surprisingly easy win over Vanderbilt at home. The Tigers’ offense, which struggled so much earlier in the season gained 404 yards against a solid Vanderbilt defense, including 239 on the ground. The most important development in recent weeks has been the improved play of senior quarterback Brandon Cox. Over the past three weeks, Cox has completed 44-of-62 passes for 527 yards with four touchdowns and, most important, only one interception. Arkansas was far from impressive offensively in its closer-than-expected 34–15 win over Chattanooga. The Hogs managed only 373 yards of offense against an FCS team that had allowed an average of 395 in its first four games (none against FBS teams).
Auburn 20, Arkansas 16

Texas A&M (+8.5) at Texas Tech
This series has been surprisingly one-sided in recent years. Since losing five straight to A&M from 1990-94, Texas Tech has won nine of 12 overall, including six straight in Lubbock. Look for the Red Raiders’ run of success to continue. Texas A&M might be 2–0 in the Big 12 South (alone in first place), but the Aggies haven’t been overly impressive this season. Last week, they rallied to beat Oklahoma State 24–23, but they gave up a ton of yards (459) to a team that was playing without its starting quarterback. And yes, I am aware that Tech gave up a ton of yards to O-State (610), but the Red Raiders also had 718 yards of their own in that game — 350 more than A&M picked up vs. the Pokes. Did you follow that?
Texas Tech 41, Texas A&M 30

Purdue (+5.5) at Michigan
After rolling up a ton of yards and points against a soft schedule, the Purdue offense was stopped cold by Ohio State in a sobering 23–7 loss in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers’ ground game was ineffective, and quarterback Curtis Painter, while throwing for a respectable 268 yards, tossed 29 incomplete passes. This is an important bounce-back game for Joe Tiller’s club. We’ll find out if Purdue is a legitimate contender in the Big Ten or simply a middle-of-the-pack club that couldn’t hang with one of the big boys. Michigan is coming off a sluggish 33–22 win over a pretty bad Eastern Michigan team. The Eagles had scored a combined 10 points in blowout losses to Pittsburgh and Vanderbilt, but ‘erupted’ for 16 vs. the Wolverines. The final touchdown did come in the final minute of the game, but they all count. This one should be very interesting. In the end, I think Mike Hart will be the difference.
Michigan 28, Purdue 24

Tennessee (-7) at Mississippi State
Tennessee answered the bell in front of 107,000 orange-clad fans on national television. Phillip Fulmer’s task this weekend is getting his team ready to play a far-less-sexy opponent in front of a crowd about half that size in a game that is not on television. While the stage might not be as grand this Saturday, the stakes are clearly high. Tennessee’s 35–14 win over Georgia coupled with Florida’s loss at LSU puts the Vols in control of their own destiny. And with a remaining schedule that no longer includes Florida and Georgia (and doesn’t include LSU), it’s possible that Tennessee could somehow emerge from the mess that is the SEC East. First things first, however. Mississippi State is off to a 4–2 start, but the Bulldogs only have one quality win, the 19–14 upset at Auburn. Credit Sylvester Croom’s team for playing well at South Carolina, but also don’t forget that the Bulldogs trailed UAB 13–9 heading into the fourth quarter last week. This team is clearly improved, but Tennessee boasts the more talented roster. If the Vols play up to their potential — as they did last week — they should escape Starkville with a win.
Tennessee 28, Mississippi State 14

Minnesota (+7) at Northwestern
Don’t be swayed too much by Northwestern’s loss to Duke earlier this season. This is not a bad team. The Wildcats’ offense has been strong, averaging 476 yards in the five games that weren’t against Ohio State (and 120 in the one game vs. the Buckeyes). They are coming off a 48–41 overtime win at Michigan State in which they rolled up 611 yards of offense, and the week before they gained 417 in a 28–16 loss to Michigan. Northwestern should feast on a Minnesota defense that ranks among the worst in the nation. The Gophers are allowing 515.8 yards per game against a schedule that includes two MAC foes (Bowling Green and Miami) and one Sun Belt team (Florida Atlantic). Their ‘best’ defensive effort came against Ohio State, when they allowed season lows in points (30) and yards (459). The Wildcats, even without Tyrell Sutton, should roll.
Northwestern 41, Minnesota 28

Georgia Tech (+2.5) at Miami
With three league losses already, Georgia Tech’s hopes of repeating in the Coastal Division aren’t looking too good. Miami, on the other hand, is still very much in the race. At 1–1, the Canes trail 3–0 Virginia and 2–0 Virginia Tech. Last Saturday, however, Miami didn’t look like a team capable of winning any kind of title. The Canes fell behind North Carolina 27–0 at the half en route to a 33–27 loss. Kyle Wright, who played so well in the dominating win over Texas A&M, has been intercepted six times over the past two weeks. Miami needs Wright to revert to his Texas A&M form to make a run at a conference title. Georgia Tech has actually won two straight over the Canes, winning in Miami 14–10 in 2005 and in Atlanta 30–23 last fall. Can the Jackets sting the Canes once again? The guess (and it’s pretty much a guess with these two hard-to-figure-out teams) here is no.
Miami 17, Georgia Tech 13

Last week — 9–1 overall (8–2 against the spread)
Season — 41–19 overall (32–26-2 against the spread)

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