Weekend On Tap: October 4 edition

This looks like the best week of college football so far this season, highlighted by Florida traveling to LSU and Texas and Oklahoma meeting in Dallas. See what Mitch Light thinks will happen in these and eight other games in his Weekend On Tap column.

Click on any game to get Athlon's preview or head on over to our conference notebooks to find a game preview for the rest of the 119 D-I teams. Also, be sure to check out this week's Goal Line Stand column and watch the Weekend Preview Video.

Kentucky (+3) at South Carolina (Thursday night)
Upstart Kentucky and South Carolina meet on a national stage Thursday night in one of the most intriguing games of a great weekend of college football. For Kentucky, it’s an opportunity to prove that its lofty ranking (No. 8 in both the AP and Coaches poll) is justified; for South Carolina, it’s a chance to show that it can be a legitimate contender in the SEC East. The key will be Kentucky’s ability to stop the run, something it hasn’t done too well this year. If the Cats can slow down Cory Boyd and Mike Davis, they will have a better chance of controlling the tempo of this game. South Carolina wants to win with its running attack and defense. Kentucky wants to score 40-plus points, which it has done in all five games this year. There’s no doubt that Kentucky is a very good team, but we still don’t know if they are top 10 good or just top 25 good. They have two notable wins, over struggling Louisville and Arkansas, which is 0–2 in the SEC.
South Carolina 33, Kentucky 28

Florida (+9) at LSU
It might not be the Game of the Century any more, but it’s still a pretty good game. Even after Florida’s shocking loss to Auburn last Saturday night, this game still has national title implications. Florida can get back into the race with a win at LSU, and the Tigers can solidify their case as one of the two best teams in the nation with a win over a very good Florida team. Florida struggled on offense for the first time this season — which is a bad sign, since Auburn was the first quality defense the Gators have played. Here’s more bad news: Auburn’s defense is very good; LSU’s defense is great, likely the best in the country. The Tigers simply do not have a weakness. They are great on the defensive line, great at linebacker and great in the secondary. They rank first in the nation in total defense and scoring defense and have allowed a total of 32 points in five games.
LSU 27, Florida 17

Wisconsin (+2.5) at Illinois
I’m a convert. I doubted the Illini all summer. Picked against them in the opener vs. Missouri and won (barely). But I’m on board now, having jumped on the bandwagon sometime last week before the big win over Penn State. This week presents another huge challenge. Wisconsin might not be the sexiest team around, but the Badgers are 5–0 overall and 2–0 in the Big Ten. Expect both teams to have success moving the ball up and down the field. Illinois’ defensive numbers are pretty good, but they have given up 429 yards to Missouri, 397 to Indiana and 427 to Penn State. The key to the game likely will be Illinois’ ability to protect the football. In the win over Penn State, the Illini won the turnover battle 4-to-2. In their only loss, to Missouri in St. Louis, they committed five turnovers and had two takeaways. Win the turnover battle and win the game.
Illinois 28, Wisconsin 24

Georgia (+2) at Tennessee
You don’t want to put too much stock into any single game, but this is an absolutely enormous game for Tennessee. This is a team that has won the two games it was supposed to win (Southern Miss and Arkansas State) and lost its only two games against top competition. There’s no shame in losing at Cal and Florida, but a program like Tennessee should not be losing by such decisive margins. A UT win this weekend would not cure all of the program’s problems, but the Vols would sure feel a lot better about themselves. Florida’s loss to Auburn has opened up the SEC East race, and a 1–1 Tennessee team would have to think it could be a factor. An 0–2 start, however, would be nearly impossible to overcome. Not only would the Vols be out of the race by the first week of October, but the Phil Fulmer-must-go chatter would rage out of control.
Georgia 28, Tennessee 24

Vanderbilt (+7.5) at Auburn
Need evidence that college football is a strange sport? Take a look at the Auburn Tigers, a team that lost at home to Mississippi State yet was good enough two weeks later to beat the powerful Florida Gators in Gainesville. Naturally, you would think that a team that is good enough to win at Florida should have no trouble with Vanderbilt the following week, right? Well, that might not be the case. The improved Commodores aren’t a threat to win the SEC East, but Bobby Johnson’s team is good enough to make Auburn sweat. The Commodores boast a talented (though inconsistent) quarterback in Chris Nickson and one of the nation’s top receivers in Earl Bennett. A big matchup will be Vanderbilt’s offensive line vs. the quick Auburn front seven. If the Dores struggle to run the ball, life will be very difficult for Nickson and Bennett.
Auburn 24, Vanderbilt 14

Kansas (+3) at Kansas State
I might be crazy, but if I could only watch one game this weekend (other than LSU-Florida), this would be it. This game has so much intrigue. Kansas has played a very soft schedule, but the Jayhawks are putting up some gaudy offensive numbers. They are third in the nation in total offense (552.75 ypg) and fourth in scoring (53.5). They have rushed for 220 yards or more in every game and thrown for 280 or more in every game. Kansas State will be by far the best team KU has played to date. The Wildcats are 3–1 with a very impressive win at Texas and a close loss at Auburn on their resume. Josh Freeman is doing a decent job at quarterback, but he still has more interceptions (4) than TDs (3), giving him 19 picks and nine touchdowns in his career. Freeman did not throw a pick last week, breaking a streak of five straight games (against FBS teams) with at least one interception. This game is so difficult to predict. We just don’t know how good Kansas is. The guess here is pretty good.
Kansas 34, Kansas State 27

Oklahoma (-11) vs. Texas
While surprising, Texas’ loss at Kansas State last week wasn’t too much of a shock. The Longhorns had been flirting with disaster all season, from the lethargic opener vs. Arkansas State to the first-half struggles vs. TCU to the too-close-for comfort win at UCF. Oklahoma’s loss at Colorado, on the other hand, was stunning. The Sooners entered the game averaging 562.3 yards of offense but managed only 230 vs. the Buffs. OU averaged only 4.8 yards in its final four possessions of the game. The Sooners could have a tough time cranking the offense back up this week. Despite its early season struggles, Texas is still playing pretty good defense. Against Kansas State, the Horns only gave up two offensive touchdowns and 272 total yards. I’m not ready to give up on Texas yet, but OU is the pick in this one.
Oklahoma 30, Texas 23

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Rutgers
South Florida isn’t the only up-and-coming team in the Big East. Cincinnati, under first-year coach Brian Kelly, is off to a 5–0 start, and the Bearcats have won those five games by an average score of 46–10. The schedule hasn’t been brutal, but this team has been playing great football. And unlike a lot of teams with gaudy records, the Bearcats have taken their show on the road, posting wins of 47–10 at Miami (Ohio) and 52–23 at San Diego State. Rutgers will be the best team UC has played, but we’re still not sure how good this Rutgers team is. With apologies to Navy, which is down this year, Maryland is the only decent team Rutgers has faced, and the Terps won by 10 at Rutgers Stadium. Rutgers is favored, but Cincinnati might be the better team.
Cincinnati 23, Rutgers 17

Ohio State (-7) at Purdue
Purdue is a lot like Kansas. Both teams have been putting up huge numbers against inferior teams. The Boilermakers, who are averaging a shade under 500 yards, are led by quarterback Curtis Painter, tailback Kory Sheets and receiver Dorien Bryant. Painter threw 19 interceptions last year but has only thrown three in four games in 2007. Now we’ll see what he can do against one of the top defenses in the nation. Ohio State has given up seven points or less in four of its five games and gave up 14 in the other — a win at Washington. The offense, which struggled a bit in the first few weeks, has been solid. Chris Wells has four straight 100-yard games, and quarterback Todd Boekman has been efficient. I think Purdue is pretty good, but I’m going with the known quantity.
Ohio State 30, Purdue 20

Nebraska (+7) at Missouri
Back in the summer, this game looked like it would go a long way in deciding the Big 12 North winner. But now that Kansas, Kansas State and Colorado are (apparently) better than expected, this is just another important game. A win won’t punch the ticket to San Antonio and a loss won’t eliminate either team from the race. Missouri has been the more impressive team to date. The Tigers handed Illinois its only loss and also rolled past Ole Miss in Oxford. Nebraska, meanwhile, struggled to beat an average Wake Forest team, got blown out by USC and was fortunate to beat Ball State in Lincoln.
Missouri 34, Nebraska 22

Last week — 6–4 overall (6–4 against the spread)
Season — 32–18 overall (24–24–2 against the spread)

Del.icio.us | Digg it | Athlon Sports RSS Feeds