Weekend On Tap: September 27 edition

Quality games will be played throughout the country this week, highlighted by South Florida hosting West Virginia and Oregon hosting California. See what Mitch Light thinks will happen in these and eight other games in his Weekend On Tap column.

Click on any game to get Athlon's preview or head on over to our conference notebooks to find a game preview for the rest of the 119 D-I teams. Also, be sure to check out this week's Goal Line Stand column and watch the Weekend Preview Video.

Southern Miss (+10.5) at Boise State (Thursday)
This is an intriguing intersectional matchup between two of the very best non-BCS programs in the nation. Both teams are 2–1 with one win over an FBS school, one win over a solid non-BCS (Boise State beat Wyoming; Southern Miss won at East Carolina) and a respectable loss on the road to a BCS school (Boise lost at Washington; Southern Miss lost at Tennessee). That is not where the similarities end, either. Both teams have been solid defensively and have leaned on their running games early in the season. Everyone knows about Boise State’s Ian Johnson, but Southern Miss also boasts a top-flight running back in sophomore Damion Fletcher. He rushed for 1,388 yards as a true freshman and has 304 through three games. This should be very interesting.
Boise State 28, Southern Miss 21

West Virginia (+7) at South Florida (Friday)
It’s the biggest game in the brief history of South Florida football. Raymond James Stadium is sold out. The game will be televised in prime time by ESPN2. Can Jim Leavitt’s club pick up yet another program-defining win? Sure, if they duplicate their defensive effort from a year ago, when they limited the Mountaineers to 132 yards rushing on 37 attempts in their upset win in Morgantown. That, however, will be very difficult. West Virginia is even more formidable on the ground this season; Pat White and Steve Slaton are a year older and Noel Devine has now worked his way into the rotation. The true freshman is averaging 11.1 yards per carry and has given the nation’s speediest backfield another dimension.
West Virginia 34, South Florida 28

Auburn (+18) at Florida
What looked like a potential stumbling block back in the preseason now appears to be nothing more than a tune-up for the Gators’ epic showdown at LSU in two weeks. Florida has played better than expected — thanks to the exploits of Tim Tebow — while Auburn has been the league’s biggest disappointment. Florida’s only apparent weakness right now is its pass defense. In three games against Division I-A (FBS competition), the Gators have allowed 283 passing yards to Troy, 261 to Tennessee and 310 to Ole Miss. In must be noted that Florida held a considerable lead in all three games, so each team was forced to pass the ball in the second half, but this inexperienced secondary is a concern.  Auburn, though, doesn’t appear to be equipped to take advantage of this one weakness. Brandon Cox has not shown the ability to make plays in the passing game, and Kodi Burns, when he is in the game, is more of a running threat. Here is an interesting note: Auburn has won its last two games in which it was a double-digit underdog — at Alabama (+10.5)  in 2002 and vs. Florida (+23) in 2001. Will it happen again? Not likely.
Florida 34, Auburn 17

Alabama (+2.5) vs. Florida State (in Jacksonville)
Bobby Bowden will finally coach his first game against Alabama, the school he idolized while growing up in Birmingham. The legendary coach almost made the move to Alabama following the 1986 season, but — depending on what side of the story you hear — was not interested enough or was never officially offered the job. So he remained at Florida State and built the Seminoles into one of the nation’s finest programs. That program, however, has slipped in recent years, and based on the early returns in 2007, FSU doesn’t appear to be close to a return to dominance. While this game is being played in Jacksonville, don’t expect a home game for Florida State. The tickets were split 50/50, and Rick Catlett, president of the Gator Bowl Association, told the Birmingham News that he expects more than 85,000 fans, including “the largest contingent of out-of-town fans coming to a game in Jacksonville history.”
Alabama 24, Florida State 16

Mississippi State (+13.5) at South Carolina
At first glance, the Gamecocks and Bulldogs have quite a bit in common. Both teams are 3–1 with the only loss coming against LSU. Both teams have notched a road upset in league play. Both teams have leaned on their running game due to issues at quarterback. And both teams have been relatively stout defensively. It sounds like these two teams are pretty evenly matched. Well, not exactly. While Mississippi State is off to a nice 3–1 start, this team will have to scratch and claw to reach six wins and become bowl eligible. South Carolina, however, should be back in the postseason with relative ease. I don’t think this team is a serious threat to win the East, but Steve Spurrier’s club has more talent than Mississippi State and will have the luxury of playing at home.
South Carolina 23, Mississippi State 13

Penn State (-3) at Illinois
This is a huge barometer game in the Big Ten. Can 3–1 Illinois take that next step and beat a quality Big Ten opponent? Can Penn State recover from a disheartening loss at Michigan and prove that it is still Penn State and that Illinois is still Illinois? I had been leaning toward Penn State all week, but the more I looked at the numbers the more I started to like Illinois. The Illini have an exciting (though mistake-prone) quarterback in Juice Williams and feature one of the nation’s most underrated running backs in Rashard Mendenhall. Last year, Mendenhall averaged 8.2 yards per carry while sharing time with Pierre Thomas. This season, as the lead back, he is averaging 7.0 per carry and 134.0 per game. Penn State has some playmakers on offense, but the Nittany Lions have had trouble getting guys like Derrick Williams, Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood involved in the offensive attack. Penn State has some star power on defense, but the Illini have been the better defense this year. Illinois ranks 28th in the nation in total defense, and that includes games against powerful Missouri and a very solid Indiana offense.
Illinois 24, Penn State 17

Clemson (-3) at Georgia Tech
After holding steady on the Georgia Tech bandwagon for the first four weeks of the season, I’m jumping ship — at least for one week. Losing to Boston College — even at home — was understandable, but Virginia? The same Virginia team that rolled up 100 yards of total offense in a season-opening loss to Wyoming? Clemson, on the other hand, has been on a roll. The Tigers are 4–0 and are coming off a dominating win over North Carolina State in which they more tripled the Pack’s total yardage (608 to 202). The running attack, as expected, has been strong, but the Tigers are also getting stellar play at quarterback. Cullen Harper, a first-year starter, is seventh in the nation in passing efficiency and has not thrown an interception yet.
Clemson 24, Georgia Tech 20

California (+5.5) at Oregon
If you are searching for the finest collection of skill position players in the nation this weekend, take a look at Autzen Stadium. Both Cal and Oregon are averaging over 40 points per game and both teams are loaded with athletes on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Dennis Dixon (11 touchdowns, no interceptions) gets most of the headlines at Oregon, but the Ducks also feature one of the nation’s finest tailbacks in Jonathan Stewart and a big-time playmaker at receiver in Jaison Williams. Cal counters with Nate Longshore at quarterback, Justin Forsett at tailback and a host of talented receivers.  The home team has won each of the past four meetings. That has to change at some point.
California 38, Oregon 31

BYU (-5.5) at New Mexico
Check out BYU’s defensive numbers this season. In three of their games — all against reputable competition — the Cougars allowed 255 total yards (Arizona), 236 (UCLA) and 231 (Air Force). Against Tulsa, however, the Cougars were shredded for 595 yards en route to a 55–47 defeat. So which is the real BYU defense? The guess here it’s the one that gives up around 230 yards per game, not the one that gives up 600. BYU’s offense has been a bit more consistent, with a low of 392 yards vs. Arizona and a high of 694 against Tulsa. This could be one of the best two-loss teams in the nation.
BYU 28, New Mexico 13 

Louisville (-9) at North Carolina State
It’s dangerous to pick a team that has given up an average of 493 yards in its three games against FBS competition. It’s dangerous to pick a team that gave up 465 yards and 38 points to Syracuse — arguably the worst offensive BCS conference team in the nation. Yes, it’s dangerous. But I’m going to do it. Let’s not forget that Louisville leads the nation in total offense and ranks fourth in scoring offense. And let’s not forget that the opponent this week is NC State, a team that was outgained 608 to 202 last week by Clemson.
Louisville 48, NC State 24

Last week — 4–6 overall (2–8 against the spread)
Season — 26–14 overall (18–20-2 against the spread)

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