It's Finally time to sit Tim Tebow vs. Jets on Thursday night
Tim Tebow has been a worthwhile fantasy start. But not this week.
By: Corby Yarbrough | 11/16/11, 2:02 PM EST
I’ve told you before, don’t watch Tim Tebow play if he’s on your fantasy team; just look at the box score after the game and be satisfied.
The Denver Broncos’ quarterback continues to produce as a fantasy QB and a reality QB. Tebow is 3-1 as a starter and has fantasy games of 22.34, 14.18, 24.76 and 17.06 in Athlon’s scoring format where it’s six points for all touchdowns.
Depending on what satisfies you from your starting fantasy QB, and assuming it’s at least 16 points, this is the week I would sit Tebow down.
Cliché alert: You can only play with fire for so long before you get burned. I think you will get burned if you play Tebow against the visiting New York Jets Thursday night.
In the Week 10, 17-10 victory at Kansas City, Tebow attempted just eight passes (none coming in the first quarter) and completed just two of them for 69 yards (56 came on a fourth quarter-TD pass to Eric Decker). Tebow added nine carries for 43 yards to give fantasy players his 17.06-point day.
The Broncos rushed 55 times in the Kansas City game, 54 of them called runs, and dropped back to pass nine times. Now the Denver backfield is a mess with Knowhson Moreno (ACL) out for the season, Willis McGhee (hamstring) “iffy” for Thursday night’s game and Lance Ball needing 30 carries to get 96 yards. Think the box will get stacked a little bit more this week against a QB who’s completion percentage this season is 44.8?
So how do we characterize Tebow now? Is he a running back or a quarterback?
Well let’s take a look at how the Jets fare against both.
Uncharacteristically, the Jets are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs per game this season, and are giving up 4.08 yards per carry. Only two backs have rushed for over 100 yards and only two more for over 80 yards, however. They have also allowed 30 catches for 287 yards out of the backfield. But who’s left in Denver to do that?
The Jets are solid against fantasy quarterbacks. They are third-best in the league in defending them. None of have rushed for more than 10 yards against them, of course none are like Tebow. In the year of the 300-yard game, only three times have opposing quarterbacks done that to the Jets. Tony Romo in Week 1 and Tom Brady in Weeks 5 and 10 went for 300-plus and have combined to throw for six of the eight TD passes New York’s allowed in nine games.
So let’s take those three games out since Tebow plays nothing like Romo or Brady and you have two touchdowns allowed with 11 interceptions and 167.3 passing yards per game over the other six games. Outside of Romo and Brady, no QB the Jets have played has eclipsed 16 points in fantasy this season. I think Tebow will play more like the other six than he will Romo and Brady.
I know Tebow keeps miraculously getting it done week after week, but I think that miracle is put on hold for at least this week. The stars are not aligning for him to pull another one out of his hat this week and get you that one, long TD you need to save the day.
Even Tebow needs a day of rest. So make it Thursday night.
By Corby A. Yarbrough @Corby_Yarbrough on Twitter
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