Don't Expect Much From Maurice Jones Drew Against the Falcons
MJD will be the focus of Atlanta's defense. And that's not good for fantasy owners
By: Corby Yarbrough | 12/15/11, 4:57 PM EST
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew has been the best fantasy RB over the last four weeks by 16.5-points (106.8), and is coming off a four-TD, 40.6-fantasy point day against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week.
His matchup is much tougher in Week 15 against the Atlanta Falcons. However he is the only viable fantasy option Jaguars have — the Jags know it, the Falcons know it and you know it — but it should go without saying that he cannot be pulled from your lineup.
The Falcons are the fifth-ranked rush defense in the league, allowing 95.2 yards per game and nine touchdowns, but that is also against the seventh fewest rushing attempts per game (24.3). Backs have had success as of late, including Arian Foster’s 22.7-point fantasy day in Week 13 and DeAngelo Williams’s 15.6-point day last week
Jacksonville knows it has to lean on MJD and is certainly doing so as of late. The Jaguars are third in the league this season in rushing attempts per game (31.3), which has helped produce the 10th-best rushing attack at 119.3 yards per game. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, it all the attempts and yards has still only produced the 23rd most rushing TDs of the season (7).
But MJD has seen a resurgence as of late, scoring five of those seven TDs in the last six weeks and he still has only gone below 85 yards rushing once this season (Week 8 and he made up for it with a TD).
And he is finally becoming a more consistent threat in the passing game. After seeing only 17 targets for 11 catches, 75 yards and no scores through the first seven weeks, MJD has seen 33 targets for 30 catches, 274 yards and three scores. More specifically, the last three weeks, MJD has seen targets of 6, 8 and 6 for games of 4-for-67, 6-for-91 and a score and last week’s 6-for-51 and two scores.
The Falcons are giving up the fifth-most catches (27) but just the 17th-most yards (167) to RBs over the last five weeks. The Jaguars, despite having a rookie QB, no receivers and a massive amount of injuries on the defensive side still are second-best when it comes to production from their fantasy RBs over the last five weeks.
So all the worry about Maurice Jones-Drew staying healthy enough to be relevant come postseason was worth nothing in the preseason. He was a steal for you in most drafts, and continues to get it done on a bad team with no help around him.
Start him vs. Atlanta, take what you can get and be happy that one of the best values in this year’s draft has paid off in bunches.
By Corby A. Yarbrough @Corby_Yarbrough on Twitter
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