Week 14: SEC Championship Game

You know your program has high goals when simply playing for the SEC championship is a disappointment. But that is the case for the 2007 LSU Tigers. A team that set its sights on a national title in the preseason and climbed to No. 1 in the nation on two separate occasions figured that this trip to Atlanta would be nothing more than a step towards the BCS national title game in New Orleans. Sure, winning another SEC championship — they have two since 2001 — would be nice, but nothing short of a national crown would be good enough for a team with so much talent on both sides of the ball.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is thrilled to ‘only’ be playing for a league title. After losing the SEC opener at Florida by 39 points, winning the East was the furthest thing from Phil Fulmer’s mind. And when the Vols dropped to 2–2 with a 41–17 loss at Alabama in late October, a trip to Atlanta seemed all but impossible. But the Vols persevered — and got some help, from both other teams in the East and opposing field goal kickers.

The final Saturday in October is when the door opened for the Vols. Early in the day, Florida lost to Georgia, giving the Gators three league defeats. From that point, Tennessee controlled its own destiny. All the Vols had to do was win their final four games. And that they did. It took some fortunate bounces and some missed kicks (South Carolina’s Ryan Succop, Vanderbilt’s Bryant Hahnfeldt and Kentucky’s Lones Seiber), but the name of the game is winning, and this team found ways to win. 

“Our team has some shortcomings in some areas, but heart and fight aren’t one of them,” Fulmer said after his team clinched the East with a four-overtime win at Kentucky. “Here we are, after several weeks ago we were given up for dead, going back to Atlanta in the SEC Championship to represent the East Division for the fourth time since 2001. I’m pretty pleased with that, obviously.”

As the coach says, this team does have some shortcomings, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Vols rank 11th in the SEC in both total defense (402.9 ypg — the most at UT since 1982) and scoring defense (28.7 ppg — the most since at least 1950). Tennessee, however, did play better down the stretch. Taking overtime scoring out of the equation, the Vols only gave up 19.8 points over the final five games, four of which were against SEC foes.

The UT defense will face a stiff challenge from a powerful — and balanced — LSU offense that is averaging 446.8 yards (third in the SEC) and 40.2 points (second) per game. The Tigers’ defense gets most of the pub, but the offense has actually been more consistent throughout the 2007 season. LSU has scored at least 28 points in each game and has rolled up 390 yards or more all but once.

The vaunted LSU defense, as we have seen in recent weeks, will give up some yards. Struggling Ole Miss had 466 yards (on an alarmingly high 7.0 yards-per-play average) two weeks ago, and Arkansas totaled 513 in the triple-overtime thriller last weekend. This stat is the most surprising: LSU is giving up an average of 293 yards rushing over the past two weeks.

This is where Tennessee needs to attack. Yes, the Vols boast one of the league’s top quarterbacks in Erik Ainge, but the key to this team’s success this year has been its ability to run the ball. As we have noted before, Tennessee is undefeated (now 9–0) when it attempts 28 rushes or more and winless (0–3) when that number is 27 or fewer. The stats don’t have to be gaudy — the Vols have averaged under 4.0 yards per rush in their last four SEC wins — but the commitment to the running game is what matters.

LSU is clearly the more talented team, but you have to wonder about the mental health of the Tigers. Not only did their dreams of playing for the national title end last weekend, but they are also dealing with the rumors that their head coach might bolt for Ann Arbor after the season. The Vols, as they are so willing to admit, are delighted to be in Atlanta. This team has played with a chip on its shoulder the latter half of the season, eager to prove its doubters wrong. And they did. The phrase ‘Nobody thought we could do it’ is one of the most overused (and annoying) uttered by athletes today. But, in reality, nobody thought Tennessee would win the East. And very, very few people believe the Vols will win this game.

LSU by 7