Week 13: TCU at San Diego State

It's another TCU game, and another surprising case of the Horned Frogs having a worse conference record than their opponent.

But the Frogs are still contending for one of the Mountain West's four bowl bids, or another invitation somewhere else, and need a victory to give themselves a postseason shot. The Aztecs have a lot to play for themselves in the next two weeks, including a break-even season, although a bowl seems out of the question. They're also in danger of reverting to a 4-8 record, with BYU coming to town next week.

TCU can at least claim to be playing its best football of the season lately, even having lost at BYU two weeks ago. The Frogs rushed for 251 yards in a 34-10 win over UNLV and held the Rebels to 247 total yards.

While they lack the multiple elements of Air Force's option attack, the Frogs should have fun against an SDSU defense that gave up 569 rushing yards to AFA.

As for its own defense, TCU's secondary will be tested by Kevin O'Connell's passing, after the Aztecs passed for 410 yards in the 55-23 loss to Air Force. TCU allowed 235 passing yards to UNLV.

TCU is doomed to a disappointing finish in the conference, probably fifth place, but a winning record and a potential bowl appearance would keep the year from becoming a disaster. SDSU is falling back toward its expected place in the standings, but the Aztecs still will have made progress in coach Chuck Long's second season.

In 2005, when the Frogs went unbeaten in their first year of MWC play, they had a very tough game at San Diego State, which ended up firing its coach. This game may not be easy, either, but the Aztecs' defense just has too much repair work to do in one week to keep them in the game for four quarters.

TCU by 14