Week 12: Vanderbilt at Tennessee

For the fifth time since 1982 — Vanderbilt’s last bowl season — the Commodores will play Tennessee needing only one win to become bowl-eligible. They lost each of the previous four meetings — two in Knoxville (1991, ’99) and two in Nashville (1984, ’94) — by an average score of 44–6.

This year, the Commodores bring their best defensive team of the Bobby Johnson era into Neyland Stadium. Vanderbilt ranks third in the SEC in both total defense (325.7 ypg) and scoring defense (21.6 ppg) and have held all but two opponents (Florida and Auburn) to under 400 yards.

While the VU defense has been stout for much of the year, the offense has been a disappointment. The Dores rank 11th in the league in total offense and have scored more than 22 points only once against a BCS conference opponent. Mackenzi Adams has done a decent job at quarterback since taking over from Chris Nickson, but the Commodore offense has struggled to make the big play over the course of the season. Vanderbilt will be a bit short-handed this week, as tailback Jared Hawkins (and his team-high 4.45 yards-per-carry average) will be out after sustaining a concussion against Kentucky.

Another area of concern for Vanderbilt will be its placekicking. Junior Bryant Hahnfeldt missed two field goals and an extra point in the 27–20 loss to Kentucky last weekend. His confidence cannot be very good right now.

Tennessee, on the other hand, seems like a team with few problems of late. The Vols have won three in a row after the debacle at Alabama and are on the verge of returning to the SEC title game for the first time since 2004. Tennessee has been especially impressive at home this year, with a 6–0 record overall and a 3–0 mark in league play. With the exception of the second half of the South Carolina game, the Vols have pretty much had their way at home against every opponent.

Erik Ainge has been solid at quarterback, but the key ingredient to this team’s success is the running game. When the Vols run the ball 28 times or more, they are 8–0. When they run it less than 28 times, the record is 0–3. Expect to see plenty of Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty this week, because Vanderbilt, despite its impressive numbers this year, has struggled to stop the run against quality competition. Three teams (Alabama, Auburn and Florida) have rushed for 200 yards or more against the Dores.

An interest matchup will be Vanderbilt’s front seven against UT’s offensive line. The Vols have only allowed three quarterback sacks all season (fewest in the nation), while Vanderbilt has done a very good job getting to the quarterback. The Commodores have 27 sacks (second most in the league) and have had five different players record at least three sacks.

Vanderbilt is good enough to win in Knoxville, but the Commodores will need to play a near-perfect game. They must win the turnover battle, play well on special teams (which has been a problem) and convert scoring opportunities in the red zone.

Unlike two years ago, when Vanderbilt snapped its 22-game losing streak to the Vols, Tennessee has plenty to play for. The Vols, who control their own destiny in the East, should be focused, motivated and ready to play.

Tennessee by 14