Week 12: Penn State at Michigan State

Like Northwestern, Michigan State might need a seventh win to garner the respect of potential bowl suitors. What fans and critics will remember most about 2007 are not the team’s six wins to this point, but how it let Wisconsin and Michigan off the hook.

But coming off an important road win over Purdue, Mark Dantonio’s club seems to be on a roll, and a win over Penn State is certainly not out of the question. Said Dantonio, “We don't have to wait on somebody else to do something; we can control our own destiny here this weekend, which is the way we want it to be.”

The matchup to watch in this game, of course, is Michigan State’s second ranked rushing offense against the Nittany Lions’ top ranked run defense. Penn State has allowed an average of just 82.7 yards per game this year, and only 2.4 yards per carry. It limited Rashard Mendenhall to 76 yards on 18 carries, and even though Mike Hart had 153 yards he needed 44 carries (3.5 average) to do so.

Still, this might not apply to the Spartans’ rushing attack. Unlike the other backs the Nittany Lions have seen this year – grinders and consistent gainers – the Spartans ‘earn’ their yards on big plays. All it takes is for Javon Ringer to slip through the Nittany Lions front wall once and he’s as good as gone. And Devin Thomas, the conference leader in all-purpose yards, must be accounted for at all times. How well Penn State’s defense is able to limit the big play on Saturday will determine whether it will have success on the road.

On offense, Penn State has relied on its running game to move the football in the season’s past two months. It’s not that quarterback Anthony Morelli has stumbled; on the contrary, he’s been an excellent game manager. But Rodney Kinlaw and Evan Royster have done a superb job of keeping the chains moving. Royster’s ankle has been a concern, leaving the freshman’s status in doubt for this game -- but it shouldn’t matter. Kinlaw has averaged five or more yards per carry in nine of 11 games this year. Said Joe Paterno of the senior back, “I think he stayed with us, he stayed with it, and he's worked hard … the thing that's good about that is he didn't quit on himself. He came to practice every day trying to get better. He was coachable, even up to the time he started his fifth year, which some kids aren't, and I think it's a tribute to him.”

Expect a close game, but expect Penn State’s experienced offense and its terrific linebackers to do just enough to win.

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